Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Thu, 24 Sept 2026 · 16 positions on 11 matches across 4 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions16all with a result
won / lost7 / 9positions won / lost
avg odds2.27mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit−1.96units, one a position
ROI, the day−12.3%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 11 of 11 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Japanv
UruguayInternational Friendly Games1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.95 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Crocobetunder 25.51.95+30.8%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
South Koreav
EcuadorInternational Friendly Games3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.05 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 24.51.80+2.2%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Crocobetover 20.51.95+1.9%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Throw-ins · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 15.52.20+29.5%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Andorrav
MaltaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.22 units
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Liderbetover 18.52.15+24.3%13.2%won +1.15first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
- Betliveover 19.51.95−2.2%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.75 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Throw-ins · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.17 avg → +1.17 · ROI +116.7%- Crocobetover 23.52.20+52.3%12.1%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Betliveover 23.52.15+48.9%13.2%won +1.15first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
- Liderbetover 23.52.15+48.9%13.2%won +1.15first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
Netherlandsv
GermanyUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 3.32 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 19.53.70+88.2%11.8%lost −1.00first captured 3.10 → last pre-kickoff 3.70
- Liderbetunder 20.53.50+102.8%9.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 3.50
- Betliveunder 20.52.75+59.3%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
Austriav
IsraelUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.02 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → +1.02 · ROI +102.3%- Crocobetunder 21.52.10+6.5%12.1%won +1.10first captured 1.70 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 21.52.00+1.4%12.5%won +1.00first captured 1.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Liderbetunder 21.51.97−0.1%9.2%won +0.97first captured 1.75 → last pre-kickoff 1.97
Portugalv
WalesUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.43 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 19.52.75+44.5%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- Betliveunder 19.52.50+31.4%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetunder 19.52.45+28.8%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Superbetunder 20.52.02+20.4%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 2.02
Norwayv
DenmarkUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.60 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 19.53.10+57.6%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.10 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Betliveunder 19.52.55+29.6%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 3.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Liderbetunder 19.52.55+29.6%9.6%lost −1.00first captured 3.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Superbetunder 20.52.20+27.4%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.17 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Serbiav
GreeceUEFA Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.05 units
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Liderbetover 23.52.10+10.3%12.1%won +1.10first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetover 23.52.00+5.0%12.5%won +1.00first captured 1.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 17.51.90+0.6%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Kosovov
IrelandUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.85 units
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Betliveover 11.51.85−0.9%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Crocobetover 11.51.85−0.9%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Liechtensteinv
LithuaniaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.70 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 6.53.30+66.9%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.30 → last pre-kickoff 3.30
- Betliveover 5.52.10+36.9%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Throw-ins · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 20.52.55+54.7%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Liderbetover 20.52.40+45.6%13.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Crocobetover 19.52.10+42.1%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Tunisiav
UgandaAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 22.52.95+109.9%13.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.95
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1349 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost602 / 532positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.29units, one a position
measured ROI+11.3%1,134 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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