Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Fri, 18 Sept 2026 · 36 positions on 16 matches across 6 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions36all with a result
won / lost16 / 20positions won / lost
avg odds2.05mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit−3.05units, one a position
ROI, the day−8.5%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 16 of 16 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürthv1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.15 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → +1.15 · ROI +115.0%- Betliveunder 21.52.50+32.2%14.1%won +1.50
- Crocobetunder 23.51.80+22.4%14.4%won +0.80
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 30.52.10+42.1%14.3%lost −1.00
VfL WolfsburgvDarmstadt 982. Bundesliga3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 23.51.80−1.6%14.4%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 31.52.10+19.9%14.3%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 19.51.85−2.5%14.7%lost −1.00
KasımpaşavKonyasporTrendyol Süper Lig3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.93 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 26.52.10+5.1%14.3%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 26.51.80−9.9%14.4%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.12 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 25.52.35+29.3%14.0%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 25.52.05+12.8%13.3%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 25.51.95+7.3%7.5%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.07 avg → +1.07 · ROI +107.3%- Betliveover 13.52.25+22.8%13.4%won +1.25
- Superbetover 13.52.02+10.3%8.7%won +1.02
- Crocobetover 12.51.95+25.7%13.8%won +0.95
FC GroningenvPEC ZwolleEredivisie3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.07 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → +0.93 · ROI +93.3%- Liderbetunder 19.52.00+10.2%10.6%won +1.00
- Betliveunder 19.51.95+7.5%13.8%won +0.95
- Crocobetunder 19.51.85+1.9%14.7%won +0.85
Shots · match total · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.47 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 32.53.35+79.0%11.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 30.52.20+43.7%14.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 30.51.85+20.8%14.7%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 17.51.92−0.5%7.6%lost −1.00
FC Bayern Münchenv1. FC Union BerlinBundesliga3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.14 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 16.52.25+25.6%13.4%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 16.52.20+22.8%12.1%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 17.52.20+42.4%7.9%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 17.51.90+23.0%11.5%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 33.52.40+27.0%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 33.52.30+21.7%12.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 33.52.20+16.4%12.1%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 33.52.20+16.4%7.6%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 31.51.91+23.1%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Shots · home team · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.29 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 26.52.80+63.2%8.2%lost −1.00
- BetMGM UKover 24.52.25+59.8%11.6%lost −1.00first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Betliveover 24.52.15+52.7%13.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 24.52.15+52.7%13.2%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 24.52.10+49.1%12.1%lost −1.00
Albacete BalompiévCórdobaLaLiga 21 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 28.52.40+31.5%13.1%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 28.52.25+23.3%13.4%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 28.52.00+9.6%7.8%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 27.51.95+19.4%13.8%lost −1.00
Juve StabiavCesenaSerie B2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.80 units
Shots · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.0%- Liderbetover 26.52.00+17.7%14.5%won +1.00
Shots · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Liderbetover 14.51.80+0.2%14.4%won +0.80
KAA GentvStandard LiègePro League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.20 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Liderbetunder 21.51.80−7.3%14.4%won +0.80
Shots · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 27.52.05+5.1%13.3%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 26.51.95+12.8%13.8%lost −1.00
AS MonacovRC LensLigue 11 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 23.51.90+2.1%11.5%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 23.51.90+2.1%11.5%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 23.51.85−0.5%11.2%lost −1.00
MonzavSassuoloSerie A3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +4.18 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.34 avg → +1.34 · ROI +134.3%- Betliveunder 22.52.55+88.7%11.7%won +1.55
- Crocobetunder 22.52.45+81.3%12.2%won +1.45
- Liderbetunder 22.52.35+73.9%14.0%won +1.35
- Superbetunder 23.52.02+62.0%8.3%won +1.02
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.67 avg → +1.67 · ROI +167.5%- Crocobetover 29.52.75+49.3%11.5%won +1.75
- Betliveover 29.52.70+46.6%11.7%won +1.70
- Superbetover 29.52.70+46.6%10.0%won +1.70
- Liderbetover 29.52.55+38.5%12.7%won +1.55
Shots · home team · over
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.17 avg → +1.17 · ROI +116.6%- Crocobetover 14.52.30+35.9%12.4%won +1.30
- Betliveover 14.52.25+32.9%12.0%won +1.25
- Liderbetover 14.52.20+30.0%12.1%won +1.20
- Superbetover 14.52.12+25.2%8.9%won +1.12
- BetMGM UKover 13.51.96+33.6%11.6%won +0.96first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 1.96
EspanyolvElcheLaLiga3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.41 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.29 avg → +1.29 · ROI +128.8%- Betliveunder 25.52.35+35.1%12.0%won +1.35
- Crocobetunder 25.52.30+32.2%12.4%won +1.30
- Liderbetunder 25.52.30+32.2%12.4%won +1.30
- Superbetunder 26.52.20+42.3%7.9%won +1.20
Shots · match total · over
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.21 avg → +1.21 · ROI +121.0%- Betliveover 26.52.35+19.6%12.0%won +1.35
- Liderbetover 26.52.35+19.6%14.0%won +1.35
- Crocobetover 26.52.30+17.1%12.4%won +1.30
- Superbetover 26.52.05+4.3%7.6%won +1.05
- Bet365over 24.52.00+29.3%7.9%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.91 · ROI +91.5%- Crocobetover 14.51.95+5.0%11.9%won +0.95
- Bet365over 14.51.91+2.8%7.9%won +0.91first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
- Betliveover 14.51.90+2.3%11.5%won +0.90
- Liderbetover 14.51.90+2.3%13.2%won +0.90
Bristol CityvWatfordChampionship2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.02 units
Shots · match total · over
1 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.17 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 26.51.95+32.0%13.8%won +0.95
- Superbetover 28.52.55+40.6%8.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 27.52.00+23.1%14.5%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.98 avg → +0.98 · ROI +97.5%- Superbetover 15.52.00+9.5%7.8%won +1.00
- Liderbetover 15.51.95+6.8%13.8%won +0.95
BrentfordvChelseaPremier League2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 1.99 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 28.52.05+5.8%13.3%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 28.52.05+5.8%11.3%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 28.52.02+4.3%7.6%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 27.52.00+16.4%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetover 27.51.85+7.7%11.2%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.22 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 14.52.27+24.3%8.2%lost −1.00
- BetMGM UKover 14.52.25+23.2%11.6%lost −1.00first captured 2.28 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Betliveover 14.52.20+20.5%12.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 14.52.20+20.5%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 14.52.20+20.5%12.1%lost −1.00
Central CórdobavDefensa y JusticiaLiga Profesional de Fútbol2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.20 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.84 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 22.51.88−2.9%8.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 22.51.85−4.4%14.7%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 22.51.80−7.0%14.4%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Liderbetover 12.51.80−5.6%14.4%won +0.80
New York City FCvNew York Red BullsMLS2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 25.51.90+31.1%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 1.87 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 26.51.90−2.1%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Racing ClubvSarmientoLiga Profesional de Fútbol2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.82 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → +0.97 · ROI +97.0%- Superbetunder 24.51.97+13.6%7.9%won +0.97first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.97
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Betliveover 15.51.85−4.8%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Crocobetover 15.51.85−4.8%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1349 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost602 / 532positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.29units, one a position
measured ROI+11.3%1,134 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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