Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Fri, 18 Sept 2026 · 36 positions on 16 matches across 6 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions36all with a result
won / lost16 / 20positions won / lost
avg odds2.05mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit−3.05units, one a position
ROI, the day−8.5%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 16 of 16 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürthv1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.15 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → +1.15 · ROI +115.0%- Betliveunder 21.52.50+32.2%14.1%won +1.50
- Crocobetunder 23.51.80+22.4%14.4%won +0.80
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 30.52.10+42.1%14.3%lost −1.00
VfL WolfsburgvDarmstadt 982. Bundesliga3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 23.51.80−1.6%14.4%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 31.52.10+19.9%14.3%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 19.51.85−2.5%14.7%lost −1.00
KasımpaşavKonyasporTrendyol Süper Lig3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.93 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 26.52.10+5.1%14.3%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 26.51.80−9.9%14.4%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.12 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 25.52.35+29.3%14.0%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 25.52.05+12.8%13.3%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 25.51.95+7.3%7.5%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.07 avg → +1.07 · ROI +107.3%- Betliveover 13.52.25+22.8%13.4%won +1.25
- Superbetover 13.52.02+10.3%8.7%won +1.02
- Crocobetover 12.51.95+25.7%13.8%won +0.95
FC GroningenvPEC ZwolleEredivisie3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.07 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → +0.93 · ROI +93.3%- Liderbetunder 19.52.00+10.2%10.6%won +1.00
- Betliveunder 19.51.95+7.5%13.8%won +0.95
- Crocobetunder 19.51.85+1.9%14.7%won +0.85
Shots · match total · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.47 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 32.53.35+79.0%11.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 30.52.20+43.7%14.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 30.51.85+20.8%14.7%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 17.51.92−0.5%7.6%lost −1.00
FC Bayern Münchenv1. FC Union BerlinBundesliga3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.14 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 16.52.25+25.6%13.4%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 16.52.20+22.8%12.1%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 17.52.20+42.4%7.9%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 17.51.90+23.0%11.5%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 33.52.40+27.0%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 33.52.30+21.7%12.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 33.52.20+16.4%12.1%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 33.52.20+16.4%7.6%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 31.51.91+23.1%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Shots · home team · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.29 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 26.52.80+63.2%8.2%lost −1.00
- BetMGM UKover 24.52.25+59.8%11.6%lost −1.00first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Betliveover 24.52.15+52.7%13.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 24.52.15+52.7%13.2%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 24.52.10+49.1%12.1%lost −1.00
Albacete BalompiévCórdobaLaLiga 21 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 28.52.40+31.5%13.1%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 28.52.25+23.3%13.4%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 28.52.00+9.6%7.8%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 27.51.95+19.4%13.8%lost −1.00
Juve StabiavCesenaSerie B2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.80 units
Shots · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.0%- Liderbetover 26.52.00+17.7%14.5%won +1.00
Shots · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Liderbetover 14.51.80+0.2%14.4%won +0.80
KAA GentvStandard LiègePro League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.20 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Liderbetunder 21.51.80−7.3%14.4%won +0.80
Shots · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 27.52.05+5.1%13.3%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 26.51.95+12.8%13.8%lost −1.00
AS MonacovRC LensLigue 11 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 23.51.90+2.1%11.5%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 23.51.90+2.1%11.5%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 23.51.85−0.5%11.2%lost −1.00
MonzavSassuoloSerie A3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +4.18 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.34 avg → +1.34 · ROI +134.3%- Betliveunder 22.52.55+88.7%11.7%won +1.55
- Crocobetunder 22.52.45+81.3%12.2%won +1.45
- Liderbetunder 22.52.35+73.9%14.0%won +1.35
- Superbetunder 23.52.02+62.0%8.3%won +1.02
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.67 avg → +1.67 · ROI +167.5%- Crocobetover 29.52.75+49.3%11.5%won +1.75
- Betliveover 29.52.70+46.6%11.7%won +1.70
- Superbetover 29.52.70+46.6%10.0%won +1.70
- Liderbetover 29.52.55+38.5%12.7%won +1.55
Shots · home team · over
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.17 avg → +1.17 · ROI +116.6%- Crocobetover 14.52.30+35.9%12.4%won +1.30
- Betliveover 14.52.25+32.9%12.0%won +1.25
- Liderbetover 14.52.20+30.0%12.1%won +1.20
- Superbetover 14.52.12+25.2%8.9%won +1.12
- BetMGM UKover 13.51.96+33.6%11.6%won +0.96first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 1.96
EspanyolvElcheLaLiga3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.41 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.29 avg → +1.29 · ROI +128.8%- Betliveunder 25.52.35+35.1%12.0%won +1.35
- Crocobetunder 25.52.30+32.2%12.4%won +1.30
- Liderbetunder 25.52.30+32.2%12.4%won +1.30
- Superbetunder 26.52.20+42.3%7.9%won +1.20
Shots · match total · over
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.21 avg → +1.21 · ROI +121.0%- Betliveover 26.52.35+19.6%12.0%won +1.35
- Liderbetover 26.52.35+19.6%14.0%won +1.35
- Crocobetover 26.52.30+17.1%12.4%won +1.30
- Superbetover 26.52.05+4.3%7.6%won +1.05
- Bet365over 24.52.00+29.3%7.9%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.91 · ROI +91.5%- Crocobetover 14.51.95+5.0%11.9%won +0.95
- Bet365over 14.51.91+2.8%7.9%won +0.91first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
- Betliveover 14.51.90+2.3%11.5%won +0.90
- Liderbetover 14.51.90+2.3%13.2%won +0.90
Bristol CityvWatfordChampionship2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.02 units
Shots · match total · over
1 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.17 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 26.51.95+32.0%13.8%won +0.95
- Superbetover 28.52.55+40.6%8.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 27.52.00+23.1%14.5%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.98 avg → +0.98 · ROI +97.5%- Superbetover 15.52.00+9.5%7.8%won +1.00
- Liderbetover 15.51.95+6.8%13.8%won +0.95
BrentfordvChelseaPremier League2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 1.99 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 28.52.05+5.8%13.3%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 28.52.05+5.8%11.3%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 28.52.02+4.3%7.6%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 27.52.00+16.4%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetover 27.51.85+7.7%11.2%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.22 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 14.52.27+24.3%8.2%lost −1.00
- BetMGM UKover 14.52.25+23.2%11.6%lost −1.00first captured 2.28 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Betliveover 14.52.20+20.5%12.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 14.52.20+20.5%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 14.52.20+20.5%12.1%lost −1.00
Central CórdobavDefensa y JusticiaLiga Profesional de Fútbol2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.20 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.84 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 22.51.88−2.9%8.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 22.51.85−4.4%14.7%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 22.51.80−7.0%14.4%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Liderbetover 12.51.80−5.6%14.4%won +0.80
New York City FCvNew York Red BullsMLS2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 25.51.90+31.1%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 1.87 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 26.51.90−2.1%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Racing ClubvSarmientoLiga Profesional de Fútbol2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.82 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → +0.97 · ROI +97.0%- Superbetunder 24.51.97+13.6%7.9%won +0.97first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.97
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Betliveover 15.51.85−4.8%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Crocobetover 15.51.85−4.8%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Board record · all time
settled positions1,2389 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost641 / 597positions won / lost
avg odds2.13mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+100.28units, one a position
measured ROI+8.1%1,238 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Each bookmaker and market cell is measured separately. Its own record needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive 14- and 30-day returns. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes that bookmaker's offer at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes it below +10 %. Other bookmakers on the same market can have different states. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks is public. A subscription opens upcoming match details and bookmaker prices on StatsGem VIP Picks.