Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Thu, 17 Sept 2026 · 20 positions on 10 matches across 6 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions20all with a result
won / lost6 / 14positions won / lost
avg odds2.10mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit−7.32units, one a position
ROI, the day−36.6%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 10 of 10 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
OFI CretevTSG HoffenheimUEFA Europa League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.19 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 22.52.45+28.3%12.2%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 24.52.07+37.8%8.5%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 22.52.05+7.4%13.3%lost −1.00
Real BetisvGetafeLaLiga3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.44 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.40 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 24.52.55+44.5%12.7%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 24.52.45+38.9%12.2%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 24.52.40+36.0%12.1%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 25.52.22+42.2%7.9%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.39 avg → +1.39 · ROI +138.8%- Crocobetover 27.52.85+43.3%12.0%won +1.85
- Betliveover 27.52.75+38.2%11.5%won +1.75
- Liderbetover 27.52.00+0.5%10.6%won +1.00
- Superbetover 27.51.95−2.0%7.8%won +0.95
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Crocobetover 15.52.10+20.3%12.1%won +1.10
- Betliveover 15.52.00+14.5%12.5%won +1.00
Manchester CityvNorwich CityEFL Cup3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.52 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.48 avg → +1.48 · ROI +148.3%- Betliveunder 19.52.60+49.2%12.0%won +1.60
- Crocobetunder 19.52.45+40.6%12.2%won +1.45
- Liderbetunder 19.52.40+37.7%13.1%won +1.40
Shots · match total · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.46 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 30.52.55+32.9%9.6%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 30.52.45+27.7%12.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 30.52.45+27.7%12.2%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 30.52.40+25.0%12.1%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.31 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 23.52.95+61.1%8.0%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 20.52.30+71.2%12.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 20.52.20+63.8%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 20.52.20+63.8%12.1%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 20.51.91+42.1%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Lillestrøm SKvTorreenseUEFA Europa League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 25.52.25+18.8%9.0%lost −1.00
Real SociedadvBournemouthUEFA Europa League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 24.51.85−5.5%11.2%lost −1.00
JuventusvNEC NijmegenUEFA Europa League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 18.51.85+1.6%11.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 18.51.85+1.6%11.2%lost −1.00
Crystal PalacevLech PoznańUEFA Europa League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · home team · over
1 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Bet365over 15.51.91+19.9%7.9%won +0.91first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
- Superbetover 16.52.17+17.6%9.0%lost −1.00
- BetMGM UKover 16.51.83−0.9%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.83
MálagavVillarrealLaLiga2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 22.52.05+17.0%7.6%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 26.52.05+6.0%13.3%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 26.52.02+4.5%8.0%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 26.52.00+3.4%12.5%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 26.52.00+3.4%12.5%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 25.51.91+11.9%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Montevideo City TorquevCiencianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.96 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.11 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 21.52.30+30.0%12.4%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 23.52.25+58.3%9.0%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 21.52.10+18.7%14.3%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 22.51.80+14.7%14.4%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 26.51.95+3.3%13.8%lost −1.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.04 avg → +1.04 · ROI +103.5%- Crocobetover 23.52.10+9.6%14.3%won +1.10
- Superbetover 22.51.97+16.3%8.6%won +0.97
FlamengovIndependiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores4 positions · 2 of 4 won · −0.28 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Betliveunder 20.51.85+0.7%14.7%won +0.85
- Crocobetunder 20.51.85+0.7%14.7%won +0.85
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 26.51.95+17.6%13.8%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- BetMGM UKover 18.51.98−0.6%11.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 1.98
- Liderbetover 17.51.95+14.0%13.8%lost −1.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → +0.87 · ROI +87.0%- Superbetover 18.51.87−6.2%8.1%won +0.87
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1349 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost602 / 532positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.29units, one a position
measured ROI+11.3%1,134 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks is public. A subscription opens upcoming match details and bookmaker prices on StatsGem VIP Picks.