Predictions

The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.

StatsGem Free PicksSG FreeStatsGem VIP PicksSG VIPBenchmarksBenchmarks

Thu, 17 Sept 2026 · 54 positions on 14 matches across 7 bookmakers

How this board differs from Telegram

This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem Free Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.

That day

settled positions54all with a result
won / lost24 / 30positions won / lost
avg odds2.09mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit−5.04units, one a position
ROI, the day−9.3%profit ÷ staked

One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.

Showing 14 of 14 matches

A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.

Levski SofiavRed Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units

Corners · home team · under

0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Paddy Powerunder 4.51.91+19.4%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
  • Betliveunder 4.51.85+15.7%11.2%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 4.51.85+15.7%11.2%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 4.51.80+12.6%12.7%lost −1.00

Goal kicks · away team · under

0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.23 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Crocobetunder 6.52.30+43.9%12.4%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 6.52.25+40.8%13.4%lost −1.00
  • Betliveunder 6.52.15+34.5%13.2%lost −1.00

Saves · match total · under

0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Crocobetunder 5.52.20+22.6%12.1%lost −1.00
OFI CretevTSG HoffenheimUEFA Europa League4 positions · 0 of 4 won · −4.00 units

Fouls · away team · under

0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.38 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 11.52.55+40.6%11.7%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 12.52.20+44.3%12.1%lost −1.00

Goal kicks · home team · under

0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 9.52.20+34.6%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 9.52.00+22.4%12.5%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 9.51.95+19.3%11.9%lost −1.00

Offsides · home team · under

0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 1.52.25+72.7%12.0%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 1.52.05+57.3%11.3%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 1.52.00+53.5%12.5%lost −1.00

Saves · match total · under

0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.65 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Crocobetunder 5.52.65+33.9%11.8%lost −1.00
Real BetisvGetafeLaLiga4 positions · 2 of 4 won · +0.04 units

Cards · away team · under

0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Superbetunder 2.52.45+55.5%8.4%lost −1.00
  • Betliveunder 2.52.40+52.3%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 2.52.20+39.6%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 2.52.05+30.1%13.3%lost −1.00

Fouls · away team · under

0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Superbetunder 14.51.92+15.0%8.3%lost −1.00

Shots on target · match total · over

5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.4%
  • Bet365over 8.52.10+22.2%7.6%won +1.10first captured 2.38 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
  • Betliveover 8.52.10+22.2%12.1%won +1.10
  • Crocobetover 8.52.10+22.2%12.1%won +1.10
  • Liderbetover 8.52.00+16.4%12.5%won +1.00
  • Superbetover 8.51.97+14.6%8.2%won +0.97

Shots on target · home team · over

3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.99 avg → +0.99 · ROI +99.0%
  • Bet365over 5.52.20+20.2%7.4%won +1.20first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
  • Superbetover 5.51.92+4.9%8.3%won +0.92
  • Betliveover 5.51.85+1.1%11.2%won +0.85
Manchester CityvNorwich CityEFL Cup8 positions · 4 of 8 won · +0.10 units

Cards · away team · under

4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.5%
  • Betliveunder 1.52.05+18.7%13.3%won +1.05
  • Crocobetunder 1.52.00+15.8%12.5%won +1.00
  • Liderbetunder 1.52.00+15.8%12.5%won +1.00
  • Superbetunder 1.51.97+14.1%8.2%won +0.97

Fouls · away team · under

3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → +1.35 · ROI +135.0%
  • Crocobetunder 9.52.45+43.6%12.2%won +1.45
  • Liderbetunder 9.52.45+43.6%12.2%won +1.45
  • Betliveunder 10.52.15+50.2%13.2%won +1.15

Goal kicks · home team · under

3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → +0.88 · ROI +88.3%
  • Crocobetunder 5.51.90+55.5%11.5%won +0.90
  • Liderbetunder 5.51.90+55.5%13.2%won +0.90
  • Betliveunder 5.51.85+51.4%11.2%won +0.85

Goal kicks · away team · under

1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → +0.87 · ROI +87.0%
  • Superbetunder 10.51.87+10.7%9.0%won +0.87

Goals · away team · over

0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • BetMGM UKover 0.51.88−5.4%8.1%lost −1.00first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 1.88

Offsides · match total · over

0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveover 4.52.00+4.2%12.5%lost −1.00

Shots on target · match total · over

0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Crocobetover 11.52.95+48.8%12.0%lost −1.00
  • Superbetover 11.52.90+46.3%10.2%lost −1.00
  • Betliveover 11.52.75+38.7%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetover 11.52.60+31.1%12.0%lost −1.00

Shots on target · home team · over

0 of 6 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Superbetover 8.52.67+62.5%9.9%lost −1.00
  • BetMGM UKover 8.52.25+37.0%9.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.65 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
  • Betliveover 7.52.20+58.9%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetover 7.52.20+58.9%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Bet365over 7.52.10+51.7%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
  • Liderbetover 7.52.10+51.7%12.1%lost −1.00
Viktoria PlzeňvRoyale Union Saint-GilloiseUEFA Europa League3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +0.90 units

Cards · away team · under

1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%
  • Superbetunder 2.51.90+26.8%7.3%won +0.90

Goal kicks · home team · under

0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.22 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Crocobetunder 6.52.30+21.3%12.4%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 6.52.20+16.0%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Betliveunder 6.52.15+13.4%13.2%lost −1.00

Goal kicks · away team · under

3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.0%
  • Betliveunder 7.52.05+23.6%13.3%won +1.05
  • Liderbetunder 7.52.00+20.6%12.5%won +1.00
  • Crocobetunder 7.51.95+17.6%11.9%won +0.95
CelticvFerencváros TCUEFA Europa League2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units

Corners · home team · under

0 of 6 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 5.52.05+4.1%11.3%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 5.52.05+4.1%13.3%lost −1.00
  • Bet365under 5.52.00+1.6%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
  • Crocobetunder 5.52.00+1.6%12.5%lost −1.00
  • Superbetunder 5.52.00+1.6%6.8%lost −1.00
  • Paddy Powerunder 5.51.91−3.1%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.91

Saves · match total · under

0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.45 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Crocobetunder 5.52.45+63.2%12.2%lost −1.00
Lillestrøm SKvTorreenseUEFA Europa League4 positions · 1 of 4 won · −1.87 units

Corners · home team · under

0 of 6 books won · 1 unit @ 2.11 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Paddy Powerunder 5.52.25+14.9%8.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
  • Superbetunder 5.52.20+12.3%7.2%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 5.52.10+7.2%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 5.52.05+4.7%11.3%lost −1.00
  • BetMGM UKunder 5.52.04+4.2%8.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.04
  • Betliveunder 5.52.00+2.1%12.5%lost −1.00

Fouls · away team · under

0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 13.51.85+9.6%11.2%lost −1.00

Goal kicks · away team · under

0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 8.52.25+36.3%12.0%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 8.52.20+33.2%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 8.52.15+30.2%13.2%lost −1.00

Shots on target · match total · over

3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.13 avg → +1.13 · ROI +113.3%
  • Crocobetover 8.52.20+34.3%12.1%won +1.20
  • Betliveover 8.52.10+28.2%12.1%won +1.10
  • Liderbetover 8.52.10+28.2%12.1%won +1.10
Real SociedadvBournemouthUEFA Europa League4 positions · 2 of 4 won · +0.11 units

Corners · home team · under

0 of 6 books won · 1 unit @ 2.22 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Crocobetunder 4.52.30+36.2%12.4%lost −1.00
  • Betliveunder 4.52.25+33.3%11.6%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 4.52.25+33.3%13.4%lost −1.00
  • Superbetunder 4.52.22+31.5%6.8%lost −1.00
  • Paddy Powerunder 4.52.20+30.3%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
  • Bet365under 4.52.10+24.4%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10

Goal kicks · away team · under

0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Crocobetunder 6.52.30+46.4%12.4%lost −1.00
  • Betliveunder 6.52.25+43.2%12.0%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 6.52.25+43.2%13.4%lost −1.00

Goals · away team · over

1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.91 avg → +0.91 · ROI +90.9%
  • Bet365over 1.51.91+12.7%7.9%won +0.91first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 1.91

Saves · match total · under

1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +120.0%
  • Crocobetunder 5.52.20+31.3%12.1%won +1.20
Crystal PalacevLech PoznańUEFA Europa League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.25 units

Goal kicks · home team · under

4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → +1.25 · ROI +125.5%
  • Betliveunder 5.52.30+24.0%12.4%won +1.30
  • Crocobetunder 5.52.30+24.0%12.4%won +1.30
  • Liderbetunder 5.52.30+24.0%12.4%won +1.30
  • Superbetunder 5.52.12+14.3%8.9%won +1.12

Offsides · home team · under

0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.12 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 1.52.15+63.6%13.2%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 1.52.10+59.9%12.1%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 1.52.10+59.9%14.3%lost −1.00
JuventusvNEC NijmegenUEFA Europa League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.98 units

Offsides · home team · under

3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → +0.93 · ROI +93.3%
  • Betliveunder 1.51.95+49.5%11.9%won +0.95
  • Crocobetunder 1.51.95+49.5%11.9%won +0.95
  • Liderbetunder 1.51.90+45.7%13.2%won +0.90

Saves · match total · under

2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%
  • Crocobetunder 5.52.10+12.9%12.1%won +1.10
  • Betliveunder 5.52.00+7.5%12.5%won +1.00
BeşiktaşvOlympique de MarseilleUEFA Europa League3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.32 units

Offsides · home team · under

3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → +0.97 · ROI +96.7%
  • Betliveunder 1.52.00+39.2%12.5%won +1.00
  • Crocobetunder 1.51.95+35.7%11.9%won +0.95
  • Liderbetunder 1.51.95+35.7%13.8%won +0.95

Saves · match total · under

1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.45 avg → +1.45 · ROI +145.0%
  • Crocobetunder 5.52.45+47.2%12.2%won +1.45

Throw-ins · match total · over

2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%
  • Betliveover 30.51.90−0.2%11.5%won +0.90
  • Liderbetover 30.51.90−0.2%11.5%won +0.90
MálagavVillarrealLaLiga6 positions · 3 of 6 won · +0.19 units

Cards · away team · under

4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.21 avg → +1.21 · ROI +120.5%
  • Superbetunder 1.52.32+18.0%8.0%won +1.32
  • Liderbetunder 1.52.25+14.4%13.4%won +1.25
  • Betliveunder 1.52.15+9.4%13.2%won +1.15
  • Crocobetunder 1.52.10+6.8%12.1%won +1.10

Goal kicks · away team · under

3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → +1.08 · ROI +108.3%
  • Crocobetunder 6.52.10+24.9%12.1%won +1.10
  • Liderbetunder 6.52.10+24.9%12.1%won +1.10
  • Betliveunder 6.52.05+21.9%13.3%won +1.05

Offsides · match total · over

2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%
  • Crocobetover 3.52.00+23.0%12.5%won +1.00
  • Liderbetover 3.51.80+10.7%14.4%won +0.80

Saves · match total · over

0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Crocobetover 6.52.00+8.4%12.5%lost −1.00

Shots on target · match total · over

0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.33 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Superbetover 9.52.40+36.4%7.9%lost −1.00
  • Betliveover 9.52.30+30.8%12.4%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetover 9.52.30+30.8%12.4%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetover 9.52.30+30.8%12.4%lost −1.00

Shots on target · home team · over

0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Superbetover 3.52.00+35.0%7.8%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetover 3.51.90+28.3%11.5%lost −1.00
  • Betliveover 3.51.85+24.9%11.2%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetover 3.51.85+24.9%12.9%lost −1.00
FlamengovIndependiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores4 positions · 1 of 4 won · −2.17 units

Cards · home team · under

0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 1.52.10+8.9%14.3%lost −1.00
  • Superbetunder 1.52.05+6.3%7.3%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 1.52.00+3.7%14.5%lost −1.00

Fouls · away team · under

2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.82 avg → +0.83 · ROI +82.5%
  • Betliveunder 10.51.85+8.9%14.7%won +0.85
  • Crocobetunder 10.51.80+5.9%14.4%won +0.80

Shots on target · match total · over

0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveover 8.51.80+4.9%14.4%lost −1.00

Shots on target · home team · over

0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveover 5.52.05+32.1%13.3%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetover 5.52.00+28.9%14.5%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetover 5.51.95+25.7%11.9%lost −1.00
Montevideo City TorquevCiencianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana5 positions · 3 of 5 won · +1.10 units

Cards · away team · under

0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.82 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 3.51.85+53.3%14.7%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 3.51.80+49.2%14.4%lost −1.00

Corners · home team · under

4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.24 avg → +1.24 · ROI +123.8%
  • Betliveunder 6.52.35+42.8%11.5%won +1.35
  • Liderbetunder 6.52.35+42.8%14.0%won +1.35
  • Superbetunder 6.52.15+30.6%7.9%won +1.15
  • Crocobetunder 6.52.10+27.6%14.3%won +1.10

Fouls · away team · under

0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%
  • Betliveunder 10.52.45+38.9%13.8%lost −1.00
  • Crocobetunder 10.52.20+24.7%14.4%lost −1.00
  • Superbetunder 13.51.88+57.7%7.8%lost −1.00
  • Liderbetunder 11.51.80+21.4%12.7%lost −1.00

Shots on target · home team · over

2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%
  • Betliveover 5.51.95+0.2%13.8%won +0.95
  • Crocobetover 5.51.95+0.2%13.8%won +0.95

Throw-ins · match total · over

2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.91 avg → +0.91 · ROI +91.0%
  • Crocobetover 43.51.95+20.0%13.8%won +0.95
  • Superbetover 42.51.87+22.9%8.1%won +0.87

Board record · all time

settled positions2,3019 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost1,159 / 1,142positions won / lost
avg odds2.07mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+65.03units, one a position
measured ROI+2.8%2,301 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r

How to read a card

  • A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
  • A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
  • Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
  • Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
  • EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
  • The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.

StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks

Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.

StatsGem Free Picks is public. A subscription opens upcoming match details and bookmaker prices on StatsGem VIP Picks.

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