Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Wed, 16 Sept 2026 · 21 positions on 11 matches across 5 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions21all with a result
won / lost12 / 9positions won / lost
avg odds2.20mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+5.32units, one a position
ROI, the day+25.3%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 11 of 11 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Atlético MadridvOsasunaLaLiga3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +2.90 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → +0.97 · ROI +97.0%- Superbetunder 23.51.97+8.8%8.2%won +0.97
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Superbetover 26.52.10+10.9%7.9%won +1.10
- Betliveover 26.52.05+8.2%13.3%won +1.05
- Liderbetover 26.52.05+8.2%13.3%won +1.05
- Crocobetover 26.52.00+5.6%12.5%won +1.00
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → +0.88 · ROI +87.7%- Bet365over 16.51.91+5.8%7.9%won +0.91first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
- Crocobetover 16.51.90+5.3%11.5%won +0.90
- Betliveover 16.51.85+2.5%11.2%won +0.85
- Liderbetover 16.51.85+2.5%12.9%won +0.85
Deportivo La CoruñavSevillaLaLiga2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.08 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.14 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 24.52.30+15.6%12.4%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 24.52.30+15.6%8.0%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 24.52.25+13.1%13.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 23.51.95+12.2%11.9%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 22.51.91+23.5%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Throw-ins · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +91.7%- Betliveover 17.51.95+10.6%11.9%won +0.95
- Crocobetover 17.51.90+7.8%11.5%won +0.90
- Liderbetover 17.51.90+7.8%13.2%won +0.90
EvertonvWolverhamptonEFL Cup1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 27.52.35+28.9%12.0%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 27.52.35+28.9%11.5%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 27.52.30+26.1%12.4%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 27.52.07+13.5%8.5%lost −1.00
Fleetwood TownvSheffield UnitedEFL Cup1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.70 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 27.52.70+41.8%11.1%lost −1.00
Hapoel Be'er ShevavGNK Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +0.97 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +91.7%- Betliveunder 25.51.95+5.9%11.9%won +0.95
- Crocobetunder 25.51.90+3.2%11.5%won +0.90
- Liderbetunder 25.51.90+3.2%11.5%won +0.90
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Betliveover 10.52.10+19.9%12.1%won +1.10
- Liderbetover 10.52.05+17.0%11.3%won +1.05
- Crocobetover 10.52.00+14.1%12.5%won +1.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 18.51.90+0.5%11.5%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 18.51.80−4.8%12.7%lost −1.00
Coventry CityvAston VillaEFL Cup3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.45 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.91 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 21.52.10+9.6%12.1%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 22.51.85+10.4%11.2%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 22.51.85+10.4%11.2%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 22.51.85+10.4%11.9%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.55 avg → +1.55 · ROI +155.0%- Betliveover 26.52.75+55.4%11.5%won +1.75
- Crocobetover 26.52.75+55.4%11.5%won +1.75
- Liderbetover 26.52.70+52.5%12.2%won +1.70
- Superbetover 26.52.00+13.0%8.5%won +1.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 15.52.20+62.1%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 15.52.10+54.7%12.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 15.52.00+47.3%12.5%lost −1.00
Bayer 04 LeverkusenvNK CeljeUEFA Europa League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.06 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 20.52.22+20.8%9.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 20.52.10+14.2%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 20.52.05+11.5%11.3%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 21.51.85+14.8%11.2%lost −1.00
Manchester UnitedvBrighton & Hove AlbionEFL Cup1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.23 units
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.23 avg → +1.23 · ROI +122.5%- Betliveover 29.52.25+23.1%12.0%won +1.25
- Crocobetover 29.52.20+20.4%12.1%won +1.20
BarcelonavRacing de SantanderLaLiga3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +2.86 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.74 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 18.53.15+59.5%12.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 19.53.10+84.1%12.3%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 21.52.45+83.2%12.2%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 21.52.27+69.8%8.2%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 3.20 avg → +2.20 · ROI +220.0%- Superbetover 33.53.20+104.1%7.6%won +2.20
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.66 avg → +1.66 · ROI +165.7%- Betliveover 25.52.75+89.0%12.1%won +1.75
- Crocobetover 24.52.65+97.8%11.8%won +1.65
- Superbetover 24.52.57+91.8%9.8%won +1.57
Atlético MineirovSantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.02 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → +1.02 · ROI +102.0%- Superbetunder 23.52.02+56.9%10.9%won +1.02
BotafogovGrêmioBrasileirão Série A2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.11 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.89 avg → +0.89 · ROI +88.5%- Superbetunder 25.51.97+6.1%10.3%won +0.97
- Crocobetunder 25.51.80−3.0%14.4%won +0.80
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 29.52.15+11.2%8.6%lost −1.00
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1349 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost602 / 532positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.29units, one a position
measured ROI+11.3%1,134 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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