Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Wed, 16 Sept 2026 · 21 positions on 11 matches across 5 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions21all with a result
won / lost12 / 9positions won / lost
avg odds2.20mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+5.32units, one a position
ROI, the day+25.3%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 11 of 11 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Atlético MadridvOsasunaLaLiga3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +2.90 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → +0.97 · ROI +97.0%- Superbetunder 23.51.97+8.8%8.2%won +0.97
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Superbetover 26.52.10+10.9%7.9%won +1.10
- Betliveover 26.52.05+8.2%13.3%won +1.05
- Liderbetover 26.52.05+8.2%13.3%won +1.05
- Crocobetover 26.52.00+5.6%12.5%won +1.00
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → +0.88 · ROI +87.7%- Bet365over 16.51.91+5.8%7.9%won +0.91first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
- Crocobetover 16.51.90+5.3%11.5%won +0.90
- Betliveover 16.51.85+2.5%11.2%won +0.85
- Liderbetover 16.51.85+2.5%12.9%won +0.85
Deportivo La CoruñavSevillaLaLiga2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.08 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.14 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 24.52.30+15.6%12.4%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 24.52.30+15.6%8.0%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 24.52.25+13.1%13.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 23.51.95+12.2%11.9%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 22.51.91+23.5%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Throw-ins · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +91.7%- Betliveover 17.51.95+10.6%11.9%won +0.95
- Crocobetover 17.51.90+7.8%11.5%won +0.90
- Liderbetover 17.51.90+7.8%13.2%won +0.90
EvertonvWolverhamptonEFL Cup1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 27.52.35+28.9%12.0%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 27.52.35+28.9%11.5%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 27.52.30+26.1%12.4%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 27.52.07+13.5%8.5%lost −1.00
Fleetwood TownvSheffield UnitedEFL Cup1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.70 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 27.52.70+41.8%11.1%lost −1.00
Hapoel Be'er ShevavGNK Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +0.97 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +91.7%- Betliveunder 25.51.95+5.9%11.9%won +0.95
- Crocobetunder 25.51.90+3.2%11.5%won +0.90
- Liderbetunder 25.51.90+3.2%11.5%won +0.90
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Betliveover 10.52.10+19.9%12.1%won +1.10
- Liderbetover 10.52.05+17.0%11.3%won +1.05
- Crocobetover 10.52.00+14.1%12.5%won +1.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 18.51.90+0.5%11.5%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 18.51.80−4.8%12.7%lost −1.00
Coventry CityvAston VillaEFL Cup3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.45 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.91 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 21.52.10+9.6%12.1%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 22.51.85+10.4%11.2%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 22.51.85+10.4%11.2%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 22.51.85+10.4%11.9%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.55 avg → +1.55 · ROI +155.0%- Betliveover 26.52.75+55.4%11.5%won +1.75
- Crocobetover 26.52.75+55.4%11.5%won +1.75
- Liderbetover 26.52.70+52.5%12.2%won +1.70
- Superbetover 26.52.00+13.0%8.5%won +1.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 15.52.20+62.1%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 15.52.10+54.7%12.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 15.52.00+47.3%12.5%lost −1.00
Bayer 04 LeverkusenvNK CeljeUEFA Europa League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.06 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 20.52.22+20.8%9.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 20.52.10+14.2%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 20.52.05+11.5%11.3%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 21.51.85+14.8%11.2%lost −1.00
Manchester UnitedvBrighton & Hove AlbionEFL Cup1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.23 units
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.23 avg → +1.23 · ROI +122.5%- Betliveover 29.52.25+23.1%12.0%won +1.25
- Crocobetover 29.52.20+20.4%12.1%won +1.20
BarcelonavRacing de SantanderLaLiga3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +2.86 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.74 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 18.53.15+59.5%12.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 19.53.10+84.1%12.3%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 21.52.45+83.2%12.2%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 21.52.27+69.8%8.2%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 3.20 avg → +2.20 · ROI +220.0%- Superbetover 33.53.20+104.1%7.6%won +2.20
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.66 avg → +1.66 · ROI +165.7%- Betliveover 25.52.75+89.0%12.1%won +1.75
- Crocobetover 24.52.65+97.8%11.8%won +1.65
- Superbetover 24.52.57+91.8%9.8%won +1.57
Atlético MineirovSantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.02 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → +1.02 · ROI +102.0%- Superbetunder 23.52.02+56.9%10.9%won +1.02
BotafogovGrêmioBrasileirão Série A2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.11 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.89 avg → +0.89 · ROI +88.5%- Superbetunder 25.51.97+6.1%10.3%won +0.97
- Crocobetunder 25.51.80−3.0%14.4%won +0.80
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 29.52.15+11.2%8.6%lost −1.00
Board record · all time
settled positions1,2389 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost641 / 597positions won / lost
avg odds2.13mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+100.28units, one a position
measured ROI+8.1%1,238 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Each bookmaker and market cell is measured separately. Its own record needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive 14- and 30-day returns. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes that bookmaker's offer at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes it below +10 %. Other bookmakers on the same market can have different states. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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