Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Tue, 15 Sept 2026 · 38 positions on 18 matches across 6 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions38all with a result
won / lost23 / 15positions won / lost
avg odds2.20mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+12.23units, one a position
ROI, the day+32.2%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 18 of 18 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
GenoavSüdtirolCoppa Italia1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.33 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.33 avg → +1.33 · ROI +133.3%- Betliveunder 25.52.45+27.0%12.2%won +1.45
- Crocobetunder 25.52.45+27.0%12.2%won +1.45
- Liderbetunder 25.52.10+8.9%12.1%won +1.10
Rayo VallecanovEspanyolLaLiga1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.05 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Betliveunder 26.52.20+23.1%12.1%won +1.20
- Liderbetunder 26.52.00+11.9%12.5%won +1.00
- Crocobetunder 26.51.95+9.1%11.9%won +0.95
AFC AjaxvWillem II TilburgEredivisie3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.56 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → +0.93 · ROI +93.3%- Superbetunder 19.52.00+13.5%7.8%won +1.00
- Betliveunder 19.51.95+10.7%13.8%won +0.95
- Liderbetunder 19.51.85+5.0%14.7%won +0.85
Shots · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.58 avg → +1.58 · ROI +158.3%- Superbetover 34.52.85+49.0%8.1%won +1.85
- Betliveover 34.52.70+41.2%14.0%won +1.70
- Liderbetover 33.52.20+27.9%14.4%won +1.20
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +104.8%- Superbetover 23.52.27+69.8%9.0%won +1.27
- Betliveover 23.52.10+57.1%14.3%won +1.10
- BetMGM UKover 23.51.97+47.4%11.4%won +0.97first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.97
- Liderbetover 23.51.85+38.4%14.7%won +0.85
Deportivo AlavésvValenciaLaLiga3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.18 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.23 avg → +1.22 · ROI +122.5%- Betliveunder 24.52.30+18.0%12.4%won +1.30
- Crocobetunder 24.52.30+18.0%12.4%won +1.30
- Liderbetunder 24.52.30+18.0%14.9%won +1.30
- Superbetunder 26.52.00+31.9%7.8%won +1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 25.52.35+27.9%7.9%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 25.52.30+25.2%12.4%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 25.52.30+25.2%12.4%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 25.52.25+22.5%13.4%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 1.96 avg → +0.96 · ROI +96.4%- Superbetover 14.52.02+2.6%8.3%won +1.02
- Liderbetover 14.52.00+1.6%12.5%won +1.00
- Betliveover 14.51.95−1.0%11.9%won +0.95
- Crocobetover 14.51.95−1.0%11.9%won +0.95
- BetMGM UKover 14.51.90−3.5%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.98 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Peterborough UnitedvBarnsleyEFL Cup1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.50 units
Shots · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.50 avg → +1.50 · ROI +150.0%- Crocobetover 27.52.65+48.1%11.8%won +1.65
- Liderbetover 27.52.50+39.7%11.9%won +1.50
- Betliveover 27.52.35+31.4%12.0%won +1.35
MotherwellvAberdeenScottish Premiership2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.35 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → +1.25 · ROI +125.0%- Betliveunder 24.52.50+40.4%14.1%won +1.50
- Liderbetunder 25.52.00+27.3%14.5%won +1.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.0%- Betliveover 20.52.10+20.9%14.3%won +1.10
HibernianvKilmarnockScottish Premiership3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.40 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.13 avg → +1.12 · ROI +112.5%- Betliveunder 22.52.25+34.1%13.4%won +1.25
- Liderbetunder 22.52.00+19.1%14.5%won +1.00
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.99 avg → +0.98 · ROI +98.5%- Superbetover 27.52.02+9.2%8.3%won +1.02
- Betliveover 27.51.95+5.4%13.8%won +0.95
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → +1.30 · ROI +130.0%- Betliveover 18.52.45+28.4%13.8%won +1.45
- Superbetover 18.52.45+28.4%9.8%won +1.45
- Liderbetover 17.52.00+21.3%14.5%won +1.00
Falkirk FCvHeart of MidlothianScottish Premiership1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 23.52.50+26.7%14.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 24.52.00+16.9%14.5%lost −1.00
Bristol CityvLincoln CityChampionship1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.92 units
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +91.8%- Superbetover 26.52.02+11.3%8.0%won +1.02
- Betliveover 26.51.95+7.4%13.8%won +0.95
- Crocobetover 26.51.85+1.9%14.7%won +0.85
- Liderbetover 26.51.85+1.9%14.7%won +0.85
MiddlesbroughvMillwallChampionship2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.92 units
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.54 avg → +1.54 · ROI +153.8%- Superbetover 30.53.35+81.5%8.0%won +2.35
- Betliveover 30.52.70+46.2%14.0%won +1.70
- Liderbetover 28.52.10+39.3%14.3%won +1.10
- Crocobetover 28.52.00+32.6%14.5%won +1.00
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.38 avg → +1.38 · ROI +137.5%- Superbetover 19.53.00+75.9%8.0%won +2.00
- Betliveover 17.52.45+80.5%13.8%won +1.45
- Liderbetover 17.52.05+51.0%13.3%won +1.05
- Crocobetover 16.52.00+60.3%14.5%won +1.00
West Ham UnitedvFulhamEFL Cup2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.02 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.44 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 29.52.75+46.0%12.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 29.52.75+46.0%11.5%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 29.52.70+43.3%12.2%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 27.52.00+30.1%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Superbetover 28.52.00+18.2%8.1%lost −1.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → +1.02 · ROI +101.7%- Betliveover 16.52.15+20.5%13.2%won +1.15
- Liderbetover 16.52.00+12.1%12.5%won +1.00
- Crocobetover 16.51.90+6.5%11.5%won +0.90
LiverpoolvTottenham HotspurEFL Cup3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.45 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 20.52.50+29.9%11.9%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 20.52.45+27.3%12.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 20.52.40+24.7%13.1%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.70 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 29.52.95+52.9%12.0%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 29.52.85+47.7%12.0%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 29.52.75+42.5%12.1%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 29.52.25+16.6%9.0%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 15.52.00+2.6%12.5%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 15.51.91−2.0%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
- Betliveover 15.51.90−2.5%11.5%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 15.51.90−2.5%11.5%lost −1.00
FiorentinavPisaCoppa Italia2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 24.51.85−6.2%11.2%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 16.51.85−5.6%11.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 16.51.85−5.6%12.9%lost −1.00
ReadingvBrentfordEFL Cup3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.66 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.0%- Betliveunder 20.52.10+8.5%12.1%won +1.10
- Liderbetunder 20.52.05+5.9%11.3%won +1.05
- Crocobetunder 21.51.85+9.8%11.2%won +0.85
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.61 avg → +1.61 · ROI +161.3%- Crocobetover 29.52.85+57.2%12.0%won +1.85
- Liderbetover 29.52.85+57.2%12.0%won +1.85
- Betliveover 29.52.75+51.7%12.1%won +1.75
- Superbetover 26.52.00+44.9%8.1%won +1.00
Shots · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Superbetover 9.52.05+23.5%8.3%won +1.05
Ipswich TownvArsenalEFL Cup2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.50 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 26.52.65+48.3%11.8%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 26.52.65+48.3%12.4%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 26.52.55+42.7%11.7%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 26.52.17+21.4%9.0%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.13 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- BetMGM UKover 8.52.15+32.1%11.0%lost −1.00first captured 1.89 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
- Superbetover 8.52.12+30.3%8.5%lost −1.00
ElchevReal MadridLaLiga3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.03 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 23.52.45+97.4%12.2%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 23.52.45+97.4%12.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 23.52.35+89.3%14.0%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 23.52.17+74.8%8.2%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
1 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Bet365over 29.51.91+29.3%7.9%won +0.91first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
- Betliveover 31.52.85+58.8%12.0%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 31.52.45+36.5%12.2%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 31.52.35+30.9%14.0%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 31.52.20+22.6%7.9%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → +0.97 · ROI +96.8%- Betliveover 10.52.20+15.2%12.1%won +1.20
- Superbetover 10.52.02+5.8%8.3%won +1.02
- Crocobetover 10.51.85−3.1%11.2%won +0.85
- Liderbetover 10.51.80−5.8%14.4%won +0.80
Vasco da GamavIndependiente Santa FeCONMEBOL Sudamericana3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.49 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.51 avg → +1.51 · ROI +150.7%- Betliveunder 22.52.95+104.0%13.9%won +1.95
- Liderbetunder 23.52.60+95.9%10.9%won +1.60
- Superbetunder 23.51.97+48.4%10.6%won +0.97
Shots · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.16 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 27.52.32+17.3%8.9%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 26.52.00+13.7%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 17.52.00+2.2%8.1%lost −1.00
PlatensevFluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.15 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.13 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 24.52.20+64.8%11.2%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 24.52.10+57.4%14.3%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 24.52.10+57.4%12.1%lost −1.00
Throw-ins · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Liderbetover 20.51.85+0.4%12.9%won +0.85
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1269 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost598 / 528positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.74units, one a position
measured ROI+11.4%1,126 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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