Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Mon, 14 Sept 2026 · 24 positions on 11 matches across 6 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions24all with a result
won / lost14 / 10positions won / lost
avg odds2.28mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+7.47units, one a position
ROI, the day+31.1%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 11 of 11 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
TorinovRomaSerie A2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.66 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 22.52.90+57.4%12.0%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 22.52.85+54.7%12.0%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 22.52.75+49.3%12.7%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 24.52.15+49.1%7.9%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.24 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 26.52.40+27.2%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 26.52.35+24.5%14.0%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 26.52.30+21.9%12.4%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 26.52.22+17.6%7.9%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 24.51.91+26.5%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
ComovParmaSerie A3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.47 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.43 avg → +1.43 · ROI +143.0%- Crocobetunder 21.52.65+46.5%11.8%won +1.65
- Betliveunder 21.52.50+38.3%11.9%won +1.50
- Liderbetunder 21.52.45+35.5%12.8%won +1.45
- Superbetunder 21.52.12+17.2%7.8%won +1.12
Shots · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Crocobetover 25.51.90+7.9%11.5%won +0.90
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.14 avg → +1.14 · ROI +113.8%- Crocobetover 19.52.45+32.5%12.2%won +1.45
- Betliveover 19.52.15+16.3%13.2%won +1.15
- Liderbetover 19.52.00+8.2%12.5%won +1.00
- Superbetover 19.51.95+5.4%8.1%won +0.95
Gaziantep FKvFenerbahçeTrendyol Süper Lig3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.71 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.29 avg → +1.29 · ROI +128.5%- Betliveunder 25.52.60+38.7%13.7%won +1.60
- Superbetunder 25.51.97+5.1%7.9%won +0.97
Shots · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.77 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 30.52.85+43.7%8.1%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 30.52.70+36.2%14.0%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.67 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 13.53.30+71.2%10.9%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 11.52.05+46.6%13.3%lost −1.00
Rio AvevCF Estrela AmadoraLiga Portugal Betclic2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.58 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 23.52.80+54.4%13.8%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 24.52.35+47.0%11.5%lost −1.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 12.51.97+0.7%7.9%lost −1.00
Celta Vigo BvEibarLaLiga 21 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.90 units
Throw-ins · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Betliveover 16.51.95+7.0%13.8%won +0.95
- Liderbetover 16.51.85+1.5%14.7%won +0.85
IntervUdineseSerie A3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.50 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.03 avg → +1.03 · ROI +103.0%- Betliveunder 21.52.05+14.4%13.3%won +1.05
- Liderbetunder 21.52.05+14.4%13.3%won +1.05
- Superbetunder 22.52.02+28.8%8.3%won +1.02
- Crocobetunder 21.52.00+11.6%12.5%won +1.00
Shots · match total · over
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.03 avg → +1.03 · ROI +103.4%- Superbetover 28.52.12+13.7%8.1%won +1.12
- Liderbetover 28.52.05+9.9%13.3%won +1.05
- Bet365over 28.52.00+7.2%7.9%won +1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Betliveover 28.52.00+7.2%12.5%won +1.00
- Crocobetover 28.52.00+7.2%12.5%won +1.00
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.44 avg → +1.44 · ROI +144.3%- Crocobetover 20.52.65+50.0%11.8%won +1.65
- Betliveover 20.52.55+44.4%12.2%won +1.55
- Superbetover 20.52.37+34.2%8.0%won +1.37
- Liderbetover 19.52.20+41.4%12.1%won +1.20
VillarrealvReal BetisLaLiga3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +2.63 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.74 avg → +1.74 · ROI +174.3%- Betliveunder 20.53.10+59.0%12.3%won +2.10
- Crocobetunder 20.52.95+51.3%12.0%won +1.95
- Liderbetunder 20.52.80+43.6%13.2%won +1.80
- Superbetunder 23.52.12+57.4%8.1%won +1.12
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.89 avg → +1.89 · ROI +188.8%- Superbetover 30.53.15+60.4%8.1%won +2.15
- Crocobetover 30.52.85+45.1%12.0%won +1.85
- Liderbetover 30.52.80+42.5%12.6%won +1.80
- Betliveover 30.52.75+40.0%11.5%won +1.75
Shots · home team · over
0 of 6 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 15.52.20+27.1%12.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 15.52.10+21.3%12.1%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 15.52.05+18.4%13.3%lost −1.00
- Bet365over 14.52.00+33.5%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Superbetover 15.52.00+15.5%8.5%lost −1.00
- BetMGM UKover 15.51.95+12.6%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
MoreirensevMarítimoLiga Portugal Betclic1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 22.52.05+3.9%13.3%lost −1.00
- Superbetover 22.52.00+1.4%7.8%lost −1.00
Sporting BragavEstoril PraiaLiga Portugal Betclic2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.48 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.38 avg → +1.38 · ROI +138.3%- Betliveunder 23.52.45+41.8%13.8%won +1.45
- Crocobetunder 23.52.35+36.0%14.0%won +1.35
- Liderbetunder 23.52.35+36.0%11.5%won +1.35
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.0%- Crocobetover 14.52.30+18.2%12.4%won +1.30
- Liderbetover 13.51.90+16.2%11.5%won +0.90
BanfieldvBarracas CentralLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.80 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Liderbetunder 24.51.80−2.4%14.4%won +0.80
BahiavRemoBrasileirão Série A3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.60 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 24.52.10+33.6%14.3%lost −1.00
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.40 avg → +1.40 · ROI +140.0%- Superbetover 29.52.60+47.0%9.9%won +1.60
- Liderbetover 29.52.20+24.4%14.4%won +1.20
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.17 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 18.52.50+51.7%9.4%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 17.51.85+27.1%14.7%lost −1.00
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1349 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost602 / 532positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.29units, one a position
measured ROI+11.3%1,134 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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