Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

3Cells with a direction

76Cells still gathering evidence

10Earlier matches required

79Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

Reset

1–3 of 3 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
PinnacleLigue 1	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	13	−4.47u-34.4% ROI	+2.53u19.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLigue 1	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	11	+18.00u163.6% ROI	−0.85u-7.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLigue 1	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	11	−11.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.54u4.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 10 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 14:53:49