Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Historical direction benchmarks

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · half-point lines only. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

24Cells with a direction

11Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

35Cells in this selection

Bookmaker

League

StatisticOriginal model directionScopeCurrently producingPick stageShow cellsOrder benchmark rows

Reset

Rows with the most historical matches appear first. This only changes the table order; it does not assign Free or VIP.

Normal follows the original model direction. Reversed takes the opposite side. The higher historical profit selects a direction to evaluate, including the smaller loss when both lost. A live pick still needs positive estimated return at its current odds.

1–24 of 24 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction	Current picks
KambiPremier League	Offsides · UnderMatch total Evidence 19 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159628 · scraped	19	+7.68u40.4% ROI	−9.96u-52.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Fouls · UnderMatch total Evidence 18 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1007684521 · scraped	18	+12.79u71.1% ROI	−11.71u-65.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Fouls · UnderAway team Evidence 17 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1007684541 · scraped	17	+5.80u34.1% ROI	−7.47u-43.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Fouls · UnderHome team Evidence 17 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1007684525 · scraped	17	+4.00u23.6% ROI	−6.65u-39.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Offsides · UnderAway team Evidence 15 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159620 · scraped	15	+3.40u22.6% ROI	−6.37u-42.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1002035672 · scraped	15	+8.84u58.9% ROI	−6.51u-43.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Offsides · UnderHome team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159487 · scraped	14	+4.18u29.9% ROI	−8.24u-58.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Shots on target · OverMatch total Evidence 12 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1002035667 · scraped	13	−1.82u-14.0% ROI	−1.90u-14.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Saves · OverAway team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded 2100086017 · scraped	12	−1.19u-9.9% ROI	−0.43u-3.6% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1001159598 · scraped	10	+0.67u6.7% ROI	−1.41u-14.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1001159897 · scraped	9	−0.80u-8.9% ROI	−0.93u-10.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1001159633 · scraped	9	−1.79u-19.9% ROI	−1.22u-13.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1001159967 · scraped	9	−1.16u-12.9% ROI	−1.67u-18.6% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Shots · OverMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1004544389 · scraped	9	−1.66u-18.4% ROI	−1.96u-21.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Shots · OverHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1004544390 · scraped	9	−4.70u-52.2% ROI	+1.41u15.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1001159926 · scraped	8	+0.10u1.2% ROI	−0.34u-4.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159598 · scraped	7	−3.06u-43.7% ROI	+0.21u3.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1001159926 · scraped	7	−7.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.03u14.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Saves · OverMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 2100086019 · scraped	7	+3.26u46.6% ROI	−3.85u-55.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Shots · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1004544391 · scraped	7	−5.15u-73.6% ROI	+3.23u46.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Shots on target · OverAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1002035671 · scraped	7	+0.15u2.1% ROI	−0.63u-9.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159697 · scraped	6	−2.07u-34.5% ROI	+0.05u0.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Shots · OverAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1004544391 · scraped	6	+1.86u31.0% ROI	−2.98u-49.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiPremier League	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 4 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1001159633 · scraped	5	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.29u5.8% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record.

Each benchmark row is historical evidence for a bookmaker, league and market. It has no fixed Free or VIP tier. Tiers are assigned to live picks using the estimated return at the available odds. Top 50% of approved live market groups, ranked by estimated return.

Market groups are ranked together at each evaluation. The VIP share is rounded up to a whole group, so a small approved pool may leave no Free groups. Monitoring alerts use a provisional ranking that can change at confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 20/10/2026, 11:08:51

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Historical direction benchmarks

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