Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

23Cells with a direction

18Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

41Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

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1–23 of 23 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
KambiLigue 1	Shots · OverHome team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1004544390 · scraped	12	−0.11u-0.9% ROI	−1.96u-16.3% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Shots · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1004544391 · scraped	11	−3.85u-35.0% ROI	+1.39u12.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1002035671 · scraped	11	+2.49u22.6% ROI	−3.41u-31.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159697 · scraped	10	−1.48u-14.8% ROI	−2.28u-22.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159633 · scraped	9	−4.80u-53.3% ROI	+2.41u26.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159926 · scraped	9	−7.09u-78.8% ROI	+4.43u49.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Yellow cards · OverMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159529 · scraped	8	+1.79u22.4% ROI	−5.13u-64.1% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159598 · scraped	8	−3.09u-38.6% ROI	+0.20u2.5% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Offsides · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159628 · scraped	8	+3.68u45.9% ROI	−4.65u-58.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1002035672 · scraped	8	+4.63u57.9% ROI	−4.16u-52.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Yellow cards · OverAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1002506039 · scraped	7	+1.27u18.1% ROI	−0.95u-13.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1002506039 · scraped	7	+1.42u20.3% ROI	−4.72u-67.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Yellow cards · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1002506038 · scraped	7	−1.76u-25.1% ROI	+0.75u10.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159967 · scraped	7	−7.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.65u23.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Offsides · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159620 · scraped	7	+5.05u72.1% ROI	−3.92u-56.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Saves · OverAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 2100086017 · scraped	7	+0.68u9.7% ROI	−2.44u-34.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Yellow cards · OverHome team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1002506038 · scraped	6	+1.54u25.7% ROI	−1.91u-31.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159897 · scraped	6	+0.02u0.3% ROI	−0.95u-15.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Offsides · UnderHome team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159487 · scraped	6	−3.88u-64.7% ROI	+1.67u27.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Shots · OverMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1004544389 · scraped	6	−0.97u-16.2% ROI	+0.09u1.5% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159529 · scraped	5	−2.09u-41.8% ROI	+0.65u13.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Saves · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 2100086018 · scraped	5	−1.48u-29.5% ROI	+0.77u15.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
KambiLigue 1	Shots · UnderMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1004544389 · scraped	5	+1.60u32.0% ROI	−1.82u-36.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 20/10/2026, 00:31:21