Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

34Cells with a direction

16Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

50Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

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1–34 of 34 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 32 reconstructed · 0 recorded 13 · scraped	32	−10.95u-34.2% ROI	+1.77u5.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 30 reconstructed · 0 recorded 133 · scraped	30	−8.90u-29.7% ROI	+3.18u10.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Yellow cards · UnderHome team Evidence 25 reconstructed · 0 recorded 132 · scraped	25	−6.67u-26.7% ROI	−1.95u-7.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 20 reconstructed · 0 recorded 8 · scraped	20	−8.35u-41.8% ROI	−0.96u-4.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Offsides · OverMatch total Evidence 18 reconstructed · 0 recorded 164 · scraped	18	+8.15u45.3% ROI	−11.10u-61.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded 52 · scraped	16	−6.65u-41.6% ROI	−0.06u-0.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Fouls · OverHome team Evidence 15 reconstructed · 0 recorded 162 · scraped	15	+3.65u24.3% ROI	−7.30u-48.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded 116 · scraped	14	+4.30u30.7% ROI	−4.75u-33.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded 53 · scraped	14	−0.75u-5.4% ROI	−2.40u-17.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Offsides · OverAway team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded 166 · scraped	14	−3.60u-25.7% ROI	−0.98u-7.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Offsides · OverHome team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded 165 · scraped	13	+6.75u51.9% ROI	−3.81u-29.3% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Shots · OverMatch total Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded -30017 · scraped	13	+9.50u73.1% ROI	−11.45u-88.1% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded 115 · scraped	12	−1.80u-15.0% ROI	−1.36u-11.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded 168 · scraped	12	+5.65u47.1% ROI	−5.85u-48.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Fouls · OverMatch total Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded 161 · scraped	10	+5.00u50.0% ROI	−8.15u-81.5% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 169 · scraped	9	+0.75u8.3% ROI	−2.10u-23.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Shots on target · OverMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 167 · scraped	9	+4.00u44.4% ROI	−5.30u-58.9% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · OverHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded -159 · scraped	9	+3.95u43.9% ROI	−5.35u-59.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Yellow cards · OverHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 132 · scraped	8	−3.80u-47.5% ROI	+0.80u10.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Fouls · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 162 · scraped	8	+0.60u7.5% ROI	−3.35u-41.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Offsides · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 164 · scraped	8	−0.05u-0.6% ROI	−1.10u-13.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Offsides · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 165 · scraped	8	+0.75u9.4% ROI	−2.47u-30.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Shots on target · OverAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 169 · scraped	8	−3.70u-46.3% ROI	+0.45u5.6% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Shots on target · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 168 · scraped	8	−2.55u-31.9% ROI	+0.25u3.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · OverMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded -158 · scraped	7	+0.80u11.4% ROI	−2.20u-31.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Fouls · UnderMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 161 · scraped	6	−0.65u-10.8% ROI	−0.80u-13.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Goal kicks · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded -365 · scraped	6	−0.15u-2.5% ROI	−1.55u-25.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Offsides · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 166 · scraped	6	+4.15u69.2% ROI	−4.55u-75.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · OverAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded -160 · scraped	6	−0.35u-5.8% ROI	−0.95u-15.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded -160 · scraped	6	−1.80u-30.0% ROI	+0.50u8.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · UnderHome team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded -159 · scraped	6	+1.90u31.7% ROI	−2.50u-41.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 23 · scraped	5	+0.90u18.0% ROI	−1.85u-37.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Goal kicks · UnderMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded -361 · scraped	5	−1.35u-27.0% ROI	0.00u0.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · UnderMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded -158 · scraped	5	+0.85u17.0% ROI	−1.80u-36.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 18:13:06