Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

25Cells with a direction

25Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

50Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

Reset

1–25 of 25 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
CrocobetChampionship	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 35 reconstructed · 0 recorded 8 · scraped	35	−6.95u-19.9% ROI	−3.75u-10.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 23 reconstructed · 0 recorded 52 · scraped	23	+11.45u49.8% ROI	−7.25u-31.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 22 reconstructed · 0 recorded 53 · scraped	22	−8.75u-39.8% ROI	+1.33u6.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 21 reconstructed · 0 recorded 133 · scraped	21	−4.12u-19.6% ROI	−2.73u-13.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Throw-ins · UnderAway team Evidence 21 reconstructed · 0 recorded -160 · scraped	21	−1.60u-7.6% ROI	−4.00u-19.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Throw-ins · UnderMatch total Evidence 19 reconstructed · 0 recorded -158 · scraped	19	−5.35u-28.2% ROI	+0.25u1.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 17 reconstructed · 0 recorded 115 · scraped	17	+0.80u4.7% ROI	−3.25u-19.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 15 reconstructed · 0 recorded 13 · scraped	15	−0.92u-6.1% ROI	−2.42u-16.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded 116 · scraped	14	+2.80u20.0% ROI	−4.65u-33.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Throw-ins · UnderHome team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded -159 · scraped	13	−2.75u-21.2% ROI	−0.55u-4.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Yellow cards · UnderHome team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded 132 · scraped	12	+4.38u36.5% ROI	−7.50u-62.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded 8 · scraped	12	−10.00u-83.3% ROI	+0.68u5.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Offsides · UnderMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 164 · scraped	9	+2.43u27.0% ROI	−2.50u-27.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 168 · scraped	9	0.00u-0.0% ROI	−1.80u-20.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Offsides · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 165 · scraped	8	+1.05u13.1% ROI	−0.90u-11.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Yellow cards · OverMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 13 · scraped	7	−0.48u-6.9% ROI	−1.18u-16.9% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Offsides · OverMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 164 · scraped	7	+2.45u35.0% ROI	−5.65u-80.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Offsides · OverHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 165 · scraped	7	+4.30u61.4% ROI	−3.25u-46.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Shots on target · OverMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 167 · scraped	7	+1.85u26.4% ROI	−4.10u-58.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Yellow cards · OverHome team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 132 · scraped	6	+5.65u94.2% ROI	−6.00u-100.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Offsides · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 166 · scraped	6	+2.55u42.5% ROI	−3.20u-53.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 23 · scraped	5	+1.73u34.6% ROI	−2.10u-42.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Shots on target · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 168 · scraped	5	+1.43u28.6% ROI	−2.80u-56.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Throw-ins · OverAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded -160 · scraped	5	+2.15u43.0% ROI	−3.50u-70.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetChampionship	Throw-ins · OverMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded -158 · scraped	5	+4.75u95.0% ROI	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 23:37:20