Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

38Cells with a direction

14Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

52Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

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1–38 of 38 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
BetliveLaLiga 2	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 34 reconstructed · 0 recorded 113 · scraped	34	−6.86u-20.2% ROI	−1.39u-4.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 31 reconstructed · 0 recorded 147 · scraped	31	−10.86u-35.0% ROI	−1.12u-3.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Yellow cards · UnderHome team Evidence 31 reconstructed · 0 recorded 112 · scraped	31	−5.31u-17.1% ROI	+1.95u6.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 20 reconstructed · 0 recorded 44 · scraped	20	−6.75u-33.8% ROI	−2.25u-11.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 19 reconstructed · 0 recorded 97 · scraped	19	+2.90u15.3% ROI	−3.58u-18.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded 99 · scraped	16	+2.55u15.9% ROI	−3.20u-20.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Fouls · OverHome team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded 131 · scraped	16	−0.40u-2.5% ROI	−2.83u-17.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4345 · scraped	16	−6.65u-41.6% ROI	−0.06u-0.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · OverHome team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded 246 · scraped	14	+7.35u52.5% ROI	−6.93u-49.5% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded 97 · scraped	13	+12.80u98.5% ROI	−5.09u-39.2% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4339 · scraped	13	−2.00u-15.4% ROI	−1.51u-11.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Fouls · OverMatch total Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded 130 · scraped	12	+6.10u50.8% ROI	−4.95u-41.3% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Yellow cards · OverHome team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 112 · scraped	11	−4.02u-36.5% ROI	+1.15u10.5% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · UnderAway team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded 245 · scraped	10	−0.15u-1.5% ROI	−2.06u-20.6% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · OverMatch total Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded 247 · scraped	10	+3.85u38.5% ROI	−4.25u-42.5% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Fouls · UnderHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 131 · scraped	9	+3.90u43.3% ROI	−4.75u-52.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Offsides · OverAway team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 135 · scraped	9	−3.63u-40.3% ROI	+0.46u5.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Offsides · UnderMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 133 · scraped	9	−0.05u-0.6% ROI	−2.15u-23.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Offsides · UnderHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 134 · scraped	9	+1.70u18.9% ROI	−3.10u-34.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Shots · OverMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7420 · scraped	9	+12.15u135.0% ROI	−7.72u-85.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Fouls · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 130 · scraped	8	−2.95u-36.9% ROI	−0.02u-0.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Goal kicks · UnderAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 173 · scraped	8	−2.30u-28.7% ROI	−0.24u-3.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Shots on target · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 137 · scraped	8	−5.65u-70.6% ROI	+1.94u24.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · OverAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 245 · scraped	8	−0.60u-7.5% ROI	−1.01u-12.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 247 · scraped	8	+3.70u46.3% ROI	−3.70u-46.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 99 · scraped	7	−3.00u-42.9% ROI	−0.43u-6.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Offsides · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 135 · scraped	7	+3.25u46.4% ROI	−3.95u-56.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Offsides · OverMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 133 · scraped	7	+2.75u39.3% ROI	−3.05u-43.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Shots · OverHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7421 · scraped	7	+1.30u18.6% ROI	−1.55u-22.1% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Fouls · OverAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 132 · scraped	6	+1.05u17.5% ROI	−1.60u-26.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Fouls · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 132 · scraped	6	−3.75u-62.5% ROI	+1.47u24.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Shots · OverAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7422 · scraped	6	+1.00u16.7% ROI	−2.02u-33.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 138 · scraped	6	+2.35u39.2% ROI	−2.05u-34.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 150 · scraped	5	+4.00u80.0% ROI	−1.05u-21.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Offsides · OverHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 134 · scraped	5	+1.20u24.0% ROI	−1.32u-26.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Shots · UnderAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7422 · scraped	5	−2.65u-53.0% ROI	+0.50u10.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 137 · scraped	5	+3.85u77.0% ROI	−3.70u-74.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga 2	Throw-ins · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded 246 · scraped	5	+1.75u35.0% ROI	−2.20u-44.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 20:43:24