Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

48Cells with a direction

15Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

63Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

Reset

1–40 of 48 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
BetliveLaLiga	Throw-ins · UnderAway team Evidence 25 reconstructed · 0 recorded 245 · scraped	25	+5.35u21.4% ROI	−7.12u-28.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Throw-ins · UnderMatch total Evidence 25 reconstructed · 0 recorded 247 · scraped	25	+2.20u8.8% ROI	−5.56u-22.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Shots · UnderAway team Evidence 21 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7422 · scraped	21	+0.50u2.4% ROI	−3.70u-17.6% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 19 reconstructed · 0 recorded 113 · scraped	19	−1.21u-6.4% ROI	−1.85u-9.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Goal kicks · UnderHome team Evidence 18 reconstructed · 0 recorded 174 · scraped	18	−0.50u-2.8% ROI	−2.59u-14.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Throw-ins · UnderHome team Evidence 18 reconstructed · 0 recorded 246 · scraped	18	+7.75u43.1% ROI	−7.26u-40.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Yellow cards · UnderHome team Evidence 17 reconstructed · 0 recorded 112 · scraped	17	−2.23u-13.1% ROI	−2.50u-14.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Fouls · UnderMatch total Evidence 17 reconstructed · 0 recorded 130 · scraped	17	−0.95u-5.6% ROI	−3.38u-19.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded 147 · scraped	16	−6.11u-38.2% ROI	+2.10u13.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded 99 · scraped	16	−3.15u-19.7% ROI	−1.47u-9.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded 97 · scraped	16	−2.50u-15.6% ROI	−1.18u-7.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Fouls · UnderHome team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded 131 · scraped	16	−0.66u-4.1% ROI	−3.82u-23.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Shots · OverHome team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7421 · scraped	16	+3.25u20.3% ROI	−4.31u-26.9% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded 44 · scraped	14	−1.05u-7.5% ROI	−0.90u-6.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4345 · scraped	14	−7.75u-55.4% ROI	+1.92u13.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded 138 · scraped	14	−8.30u-59.3% ROI	+1.49u10.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Fouls · UnderAway team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded 132 · scraped	13	−2.50u-19.2% ROI	−0.44u-3.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Goal kicks · UnderAway team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded 173 · scraped	13	−7.05u-54.2% ROI	+1.83u14.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Shots · UnderHome team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7421 · scraped	13	−2.10u-16.2% ROI	−0.82u-6.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Offsides · OverHome team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded 134 · scraped	12	−1.60u-13.3% ROI	−1.65u-13.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Goal kicks · UnderMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 177 · scraped	11	−6.40u-58.2% ROI	+2.67u24.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Offsides · OverAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 135 · scraped	11	−3.15u-28.6% ROI	+0.61u5.5% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Offsides · OverMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 133 · scraped	11	−0.99u-9.0% ROI	−3.19u-29.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Offsides · UnderHome team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 134 · scraped	11	+2.25u20.5% ROI	−2.82u-25.6% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Shots · OverMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7420 · scraped	11	−2.45u-22.3% ROI	−0.44u-4.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Shots on target · OverAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 138 · scraped	11	+0.30u2.7% ROI	−1.46u-13.3% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Yellow cards · OverAway team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded 113 · scraped	10	+1.10u11.0% ROI	−2.60u-26.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Offsides · UnderAway team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded 135 · scraped	10	−0.75u-7.5% ROI	−1.81u-18.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Goal kicks · OverAway team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 173 · scraped	9	+2.05u22.8% ROI	−2.02u-22.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4339 · scraped	9	−0.40u-4.4% ROI	−1.46u-16.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Offsides · UnderMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 133 · scraped	9	+0.95u10.6% ROI	−3.00u-33.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Shots on target · UnderHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded 137 · scraped	9	−0.85u-9.4% ROI	−0.59u-6.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Yellow cards · OverHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 112 · scraped	8	+0.54u6.8% ROI	−2.40u-30.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 97 · scraped	8	−1.10u-13.8% ROI	−1.12u-14.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 44 · scraped	8	+7.00u87.5% ROI	−1.73u-21.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Shots · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 7420 · scraped	8	−5.35u-66.9% ROI	+1.35u16.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Throw-ins · OverHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 246 · scraped	8	+4.00u50.0% ROI	−3.75u-46.9% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 99 · scraped	7	+1.55u22.1% ROI	−1.44u-20.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 150 · scraped	7	+5.73u81.9% ROI	−4.74u-67.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveLaLiga	Fouls · OverHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 131 · scraped	7	−1.90u-27.1% ROI	+0.30u4.3% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 21:54:00