Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

22Cells with a direction

4Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

26Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

Reset

1–22 of 22 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
Bet365Ligue 1	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 43 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	43	−5.75u-13.4% ROI	+1.95u4.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 37 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	37	+1.22u3.3% ROI	−4.51u-12.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 36 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	36	−36.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.38u1.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 36 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	36	−14.97u-41.6% ROI	+0.27u0.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 34 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	34	+6.08u17.9% ROI	−3.51u-10.3% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 33 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	33	−33.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.29u0.9% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 18 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	18	+0.66u3.7% ROI	−2.76u-15.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots · OverHome team Evidence 15 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	15	−0.08u-0.5% ROI	−1.96u-13.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 15 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	15	−0.58u-3.9% ROI	−1.89u-12.6% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots · UnderAway team Evidence 14 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	14	−1.45u-10.3% ROI	−1.07u-7.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Yellow cards · OverMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_cards · thestatsapi	11	−1.90u-17.2% ROI	+0.22u2.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	10	−2.37u-23.7% ROI	+1.31u13.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	10	+2.51u25.1% ROI	−4.20u-42.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots · UnderMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_shots · thestatsapi	9	+2.08u23.2% ROI	−3.55u-39.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots · UnderHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	9	+0.28u3.2% ROI	−1.63u-18.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots · OverMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_shots · thestatsapi	8	+1.17u14.7% ROI	−2.46u-30.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots on target · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	8	−0.73u-9.2% ROI	−0.76u-9.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_cards · thestatsapi	7	−3.72u-53.1% ROI	+1.95u27.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	6	−4.38u-73.1% ROI	+3.49u58.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots on target · OverAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	6	0.00u0.0% ROI	−0.29u-4.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots · OverAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	5	−1.44u-28.8% ROI	+0.47u9.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Ligue 1	Shots on target · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	5	+0.13u2.7% ROI	−1.53u-30.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 20/10/2026, 03:48:11