Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

8Cells with a direction

0Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

8Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

Reset

1–8 of 8 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
Bet365CONCACAF Nations League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 70 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	70	−44.02u-62.9% ROI	+1.98u2.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365CONCACAF Nations League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 63 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	63	+28.00u44.4% ROI	−3.90u-6.2% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365CONCACAF Nations League	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 55 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	55	+60.00u109.1% ROI	−2.73u-5.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365CONCACAF Nations League	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 55 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	55	+12.00u21.8% ROI	−1.72u-3.1% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365CONCACAF Nations League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 44 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	44	−5.20u-11.8% ROI	−0.76u-1.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365CONCACAF Nations League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 43 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	43	−1.35u-3.1% ROI	−4.24u-9.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365CONCACAF Nations League	Corners · OverMatch total Evidence 29 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	29	−0.65u-2.3% ROI	−3.14u-10.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365CONCACAF Nations League	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	13	−1.10u-8.5% ROI	−0.42u-3.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 20/10/2026, 03:18:57