Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Combined team benchmarks

All bookmakers and all leagues in scope, combined for each statistical cell.

Historical evidence

Each signal uses one unit split equally across bookmakers. Multiple bookmaker offers are not independent matches. This view provides combined evidence; each live pick still uses its own qualification checks.

Benchmarks start on 15 August 2026. Match counts are distinct fixtures; signal counts can include different selections from one match.

Statistical cell	Matches	Signals	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Offsides · OverAway team	190	190	−3.93u-2.1% ROI	−30.70u-16.2% ROI	4 bookmakers · 26 leagues293 Bookmaker observations
Cards · UnderMatch total	188	188	−35.29u-18.8% ROI	−15.51u-8.2% ROI	1 bookmakers · 33 leagues188 Bookmaker observations
Fouls · OverAway team	188	188	+16.80u8.9% ROI	−48.39u-25.7% ROI	4 bookmakers · 26 leagues299 Bookmaker observations
Saves · UnderMatch total	183	183	+3.91u2.1% ROI	−43.64u-23.8% ROI	4 bookmakers · 24 leagues236 Bookmaker observations
Saves · UnderHome team	166	166	−7.34u-4.4% ROI	−26.79u-16.1% ROI	3 bookmakers · 20 leagues204 Bookmaker observations
Throw-ins · OverHome team	162	162	+10.82u6.7% ROI	−40.20u-24.8% ROI	4 bookmakers · 27 leagues267 Bookmaker observations
Throw-ins · OverMatch total	161	161	+37.99u23.6% ROI	−59.73u-37.1% ROI	4 bookmakers · 28 leagues290 Bookmaker observations
Goal kicks · OverAway team	151	151	+1.48u1.0% ROI	−28.12u-18.6% ROI	4 bookmakers · 19 leagues290 Bookmaker observations
Saves · OverMatch total	146	146	+22.69u15.5% ROI	−41.29u-28.3% ROI	4 bookmakers · 22 leagues179 Bookmaker observations
Saves · OverAway team	136	136	−0.89u-0.7% ROI	−26.08u-19.2% ROI	4 bookmakers · 17 leagues169 Bookmaker observations
Throw-ins · OverAway team	130	130	+16.57u12.7% ROI	−40.53u-31.2% ROI	3 bookmakers · 24 leagues168 Bookmaker observations
Saves · UnderAway team	122	122	−14.78u-12.1% ROI	−9.65u-7.9% ROI	4 bookmakers · 19 leagues141 Bookmaker observations
Goal kicks · OverMatch total	105	105	−7.99u-7.6% ROI	−14.92u-14.2% ROI	4 bookmakers · 21 leagues154 Bookmaker observations
Goal kicks · OverHome team	105	105	−22.03u-21.0% ROI	−4.62u-4.4% ROI	4 bookmakers · 21 leagues175 Bookmaker observations
Cards · UnderHome team	99	99	−14.63u-14.8% ROI	−5.60u-5.7% ROI	1 bookmakers · 25 leagues99 Bookmaker observations
Cards · UnderAway team	98	98	−15.75u-16.1% ROI	−13.12u-13.4% ROI	1 bookmakers · 24 leagues98 Bookmaker observations
Cards · OverMatch total	70	70	−21.72u-31.0% ROI	−7.11u-10.2% ROI	1 bookmakers · 26 leagues70 Bookmaker observations
Saves · OverHome team	70	70	−8.92u-12.7% ROI	−6.25u-8.9% ROI	3 bookmakers · 17 leagues89 Bookmaker observations
Cards · OverAway team	52	52	−2.53u-4.9% ROI	−7.79u-15.0% ROI	1 bookmakers · 24 leagues52 Bookmaker observations
Cards · OverHome team	50	50	+6.50u13.0% ROI	−8.84u-17.7% ROI	1 bookmakers · 22 leagues50 Bookmaker observations
Dribbles · UnderMatch total	11	11	−0.74u-6.7% ROI	−1.61u-14.6% ROI	3 bookmakers · 5 leagues18 Bookmaker observations
Tackles · OverMatch total	9	9	−0.15u-1.7% ROI	−1.84u-20.5% ROI	2 bookmakers · 4 leagues11 Bookmaker observations
Tackles · UnderMatch total	9	9	−4.20u-46.7% ROI	+1.07u11.9% ROI	2 bookmakers · 2 leagues13 Bookmaker observations
Interceptions · OverMatch total	8	8	+2.20u27.5% ROI	−2.52u-31.5% ROI	2 bookmakers · 2 leagues13 Bookmaker observations
Dribbles · OverMatch total	7	7	−1.60u-22.9% ROI	−0.36u-5.1% ROI	3 bookmakers · 2 leagues9 Bookmaker observations
Tackles · OverAway team	7	7	−0.60u-8.6% ROI	−0.85u-12.1% ROI	2 bookmakers · 3 leagues8 Bookmaker observations
Tackles · OverHome team	6	6	+0.05u0.8% ROI	−1.50u-25.0% ROI	1 bookmakers · 3 leagues6 Bookmaker observations
Dribbles · UnderAway team	5	5	−2.15u-43.0% ROI	+1.14u22.7% ROI	3 bookmakers · 3 leagues6 Bookmaker observations
Shots on target · OverMatch total	5	5	+4.90u98.0% ROI	−3.55u-71.0% ROI	1 bookmakers · 4 leagues5 Bookmaker observations
Tackles · UnderHome team	5	5	+1.00u20.0% ROI	−1.75u-35.0% ROI	1 bookmakers · 3 leagues5 Bookmaker observations
Dribbles · UnderHome team	4	4	−1.90u-47.5% ROI	+0.61u15.3% ROI	2 bookmakers · 2 leagues5 Bookmaker observations
Fouls · OverMatch total	4	4	+2.90u72.5% ROI	−2.52u-63.0% ROI	1 bookmakers · 3 leagues4 Bookmaker observations
Interceptions · OverAway team	4	4	−4.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.58u39.6% ROI	2 bookmakers · 3 leagues5 Bookmaker observations
Goal kicks · OverMatch total	3	3	+4.05u135.0% ROI	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	1 bookmakers · 3 leagues3 Bookmaker observations
Interceptions · OverHome team	3	3	+3.25u108.3% ROI	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	1 bookmakers · 2 leagues3 Bookmaker observations
Tackles · UnderAway team	3	3	+0.70u23.3% ROI	−1.15u-38.3% ROI	1 bookmakers · 1 leagues3 Bookmaker observations
Dribbles · OverAway team	2	2	+0.65u32.5% ROI	−0.47u-23.8% ROI	2 bookmakers · 2 leagues3 Bookmaker observations
Dribbles · OverHome team	2	2	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.05u52.5% ROI	1 bookmakers · 2 leagues2 Bookmaker observations
Interceptions · UnderMatch total	2	2	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.66u33.0% ROI	2 bookmakers · 2 leagues3 Bookmaker observations
Interceptions · UnderAway team	1	1	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.65u65.0% ROI	1 bookmakers · 1 leagues1 Bookmaker observations

Benchmarks

Combined team benchmarks

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