Wrexham vs West Bromwich Albion 1-2 — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Wrexham

1–2

HT 0–0

West Bromwich Albion

Tue 13 Oct·12:45·Matchday 10·Racecourse Ground·West Bromwich Albion won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

3Corners7
1Cards1
8Shots9
4Shots on target3
13Fouls11
18Throw-ins18
3Offsides2
6Goal kicks5
1Saves2
15Tackles13
10Interceptions6
9Dribbles5

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

12:45WrexhamvWest Bromwich AlbionChampionship2 won / 3 lost · −1.05u · 5 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8013 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds1.8012 Oct, 01:02

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 57.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +2.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +2.6%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 89 settled picksand +0.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance57.0%EV+2.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate91.5%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:02
- over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:02
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate57.0%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:02
- over 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- over 5.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate21.0%Closing EV estimate−13.8%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:02
Bet365Closing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.0%EV+8.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate57.0%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.0%EV+2.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 04:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate91.5%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:00
- over 2.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:00
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate57.0%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:00
- over 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:00
- over 5.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate21.0%Closing EV estimate−13.8%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:00
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.0%EV+5.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate91.5%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- over 2.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate57.0%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- over 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin14.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- over 5.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate21.0%Closing EV estimate−13.8%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:01
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.66
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.0%EV-5.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimate57.0%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 4.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:24
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.0%EV+14.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:24
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate91.5%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:24
- over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:24
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate57.0%Closing EV estimate+14.0%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:24
- over 4.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+29.3%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:24
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.0%EV+9.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 09:51
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate+367.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:04
- over 1.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate91.5%Closing EV estimate+997.5%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 01:02
- over 2.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate76.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:51
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate57.0%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:51
- over 4.5odds2.77Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:51

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 3.5 at 1.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1212 Oct, 06:06

Closing odds1.8713 Oct, 12:29

Odds down−0.25

Model chance at recommendation: 50.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +6.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +6.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds1.87
Odds down−0.25
Model chance50.4%EV+6.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds4.60Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate−20.0%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:24
- under 7.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate−10.3%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- under 8.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate39.5%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- under 9.5odds1.87Closing chance estimate51.9%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- under 10.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:24
- under 11.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:24
- under 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- under 13.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate88.5%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:33
- under 14.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate92.9%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:24
Bet365Closing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV+3.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.9%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV-1.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 01:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds4.65Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:00
- under 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 8.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate39.5%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate51.9%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 10.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 11.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- under 12.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:00
- under 13.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate88.5%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:00
- under 14.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate92.9%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:00
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV-1.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:01
- under 8.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate39.5%Closing EV estimate−7.2%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate51.9%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:01
- under 10.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:01
- under 11.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:01
- under 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV-1.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 06:18
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
- under 8.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate39.5%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate51.9%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
- under 10.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
- under 11.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV-0.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate51.9%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
- under 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
- under 11.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
- under 12.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV+3.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate4.6%Closing EV estimate−44.9%margin6.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 5.5odds7.10Closing chance estimate9.7%Closing EV estimate−31.4%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 6.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate−17.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 7.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate−7.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 8.5odds2.52Closing chance estimate39.5%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.9%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 11.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 12.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 13.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate88.5%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 14.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate92.9%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 06:06: under 9.5 at 2.12 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 09:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 5+1.10u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1013 Oct, 02:06

Closing odds2.1013 Oct, 02:02

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 50.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance50.2%EV+5.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate70.8%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 02:06: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 03:35. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · West Bromwich Albion total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds2.0013 Oct, 12:15

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 51.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.94
Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 31 settled picksand +4.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance51.6%EV+3.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV-7.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate70.9%Closing EV estimate−7.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate−7.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate−8.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV-12.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate−12.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02
- over 4.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate−20.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV-0.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:27
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate87.2%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 09:51
- over 2.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate70.9%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:27
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:27
- over 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:27
- over 5.5odds4.35Closing chance estimate19.9%Closing EV estimate−13.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:27
- over 6.5odds6.70Closing chance estimate10.6%Closing EV estimate−29.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:27

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:49: over 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · West Bromwich Albion total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 19.5Actual: 18+0.85u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8513 Oct, 11:25

Closing odds1.8513 Oct, 02:00

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 55.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.82
Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 55 settled picksand +3.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 19.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.85
Unchanged
Model chance55.1%EV+1.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 18.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 20.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 21.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.2%EV-3.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 18.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
- under 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate55.2%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
- under 20.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: under 19.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−21.0%ROI · 5 units staked

Profit−1.05units

W / L2 / 3picks

Avg odds1.97settled picks

Recorded picks51 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionship Home teamWrexham Away teamWest Bromwich Albion RefereeThomas Kirk

Match overview

Matches

Cards · match total

Corners · match total

Offsides · match total

Shots on target · West Bromwich Albion total

Throw-ins · West Bromwich Albion total

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