Wolverhampton vs Bolton Wanderers 1-3 — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Wolverhampton

1–3

Bolton Wanderers

Yesterday·12:45·Matchday 10·Bolton Wanderers won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

9Corners3
3Cards2
19Shots10
3Shots on target6
11Fouls14
22Throw-ins15
6Offsides1
1Goal kicks14
3Saves2
15Tackles17
3Interceptions7
8Dribbles3

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

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Board

Matches

1 match

12:45WolverhamptonvBolton WanderersChampionship6 won / 1 lost · +5.32u · 7 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 10.52.00 at Bet365+1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.74. Expected value at recommendation: +15.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.52.00Model chance57.6%EV+15.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
KambiAt recommendationover 10.51.95Model chance52.2%EV+1.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate90.6%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 06:33
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.7%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 11:10
- over 10.5odds1.94Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 11:10
- over 11.5odds2.43Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 08:03
- over 12.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate30.7%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 06:33
- over 13.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate22.0%Closing EV estimate−9.8%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 14.5odds5.30Closing chance estimate15.1%Closing EV estimate−20.0%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:03
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.51.90Model chance52.3%EV-0.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 00:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate90.6%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- over 7.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate83.7%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- over 8.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- over 11.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- over 12.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate30.7%Closing EV estimate−9.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:00
- over 13.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate22.0%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- over 14.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate15.1%Closing EV estimate−17.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.51.90Model chance52.3%EV-0.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate83.7%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
- over 8.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:01
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:01
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:01
- over 11.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:01
- over 12.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate30.7%Closing EV estimate−9.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:01
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.51.90Model chance52.3%EV-0.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 06:18
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
- over 11.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
- over 12.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate30.7%Closing EV estimate−9.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:18
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.52.10Model chance52.3%EV+9.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:37
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:37
- over 11.5odds2.88Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate+17.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:37
- over 12.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate30.7%Closing EV estimate+22.9%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:37
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.52.00Model chance52.3%EV+4.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate+0.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 6.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate90.6%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 7.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate83.7%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 8.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 11.5odds2.47Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 12.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate30.7%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 13.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate22.0%Closing EV estimate−9.8%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 14.5odds5.30Closing chance estimate15.1%Closing EV estimate−20.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 15.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate9.9%Closing EV estimate−30.7%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 06:36: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Wolverhampton total

Open match →FreeWon

over 6.52.00 at Superbet+1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +20.0%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 104 settled picks and +0.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationover 6.51.85Model chance60.0%EV+11.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 00:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- over 5.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+11.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate48.3%Closing EV estimate+18.4%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+29.2%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
KambiAt recommendationover 6.51.92Model chance60.0%EV+15.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 11:10
- over 5.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+10.8%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+14.6%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 11:10
- over 7.5odds2.43Closing chance estimate48.3%Closing EV estimate+17.4%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- over 8.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 6.52.00Model chance60.0%EV+20.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate90.4%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 5.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+13.7%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+20.6%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 7.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate48.3%Closing EV estimate+26.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 8.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+31.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- over 9.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate26.8%Closing EV estimate+31.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
Bet365Closing estimateover 6.52.00Model chance60.3%EV+20.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+20.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
CrocobetClosing estimateover 6.51.80Model chance60.3%EV+8.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate48.3%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
LiderbetClosing estimateover 6.51.80Model chance60.3%EV+8.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00
- over 5.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00
- over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate48.3%Closing EV estimate+18.4%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00
- over 8.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+32.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 6.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:00. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Bolton Wanderers total

Open match →FreeWon

under 3.51.92 at Superbet+0.92u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.91. Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.51.92Model chance52.4%EV+0.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds14.00Closing chance estimate5.5%Closing EV estimate−23.3%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 1.5odds5.30Closing chance estimate18.0%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 2.5odds2.87Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 4.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 5.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate80.6%Closing EV estimate+0.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
- under 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:02
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.51.83Model chance52.8%EV-3.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 3.51.78Model chance52.8%EV-6.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.78Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:15
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.51.85Model chance52.8%EV-2.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 00:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds5.70Closing chance estimate18.0%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- under 2.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- under 4.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−5.6%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
- under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate80.6%Closing EV estimate−8.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 00:00
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.51.80Model chance52.8%EV-5.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
- under 4.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−9.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 04:01
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.51.78Model chance52.8%EV-6.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−8.8%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.78Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:29
- under 4.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−5.6%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 11:10
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.51.80Model chance52.8%EV-5.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds6.10Closing chance estimate18.0%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00
- under 2.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00
- under 4.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00
- under 5.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate80.6%Closing EV estimate−9.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:00
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.51.85Model chance52.8%EV-2.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:37
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:37
- under 4.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:37
- under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate80.6%Closing EV estimate−7.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:37

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 23:03: under 3.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Wolverhampton total

Open match →FreeLost

under 10.52.00 at Liderbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +1.0%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 31 settled picks and +3.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.52.00Model chance50.5%EV+1.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02
- under 11.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02
- under 12.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate72.2%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: under 10.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 4.51.80 at Liderbet+0.80u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 73.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.37. Expected value at recommendation: +31.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 4.51.80Model chance73.1%EV+31.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate73.4%Closing EV estimate+32.2%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 02:06: over 4.5 at 1.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Wolverhampton total

Open match →FreeWon

over 18.52.10 at Liderbet+1.10u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +5.6%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 62 settled picks and +0.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 18.52.10Model chance50.3%EV+5.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02
- over 16.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02
- over 17.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate58.1%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02
- over 18.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:02
SuperbetClosing estimateover 18.52.27Model chance50.9%EV+15.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:28
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 14.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate78.3%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:28
- over 15.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+8.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:28
- over 16.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:28
- over 17.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate58.1%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:28
- over 18.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.27Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:28
- over 19.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:28
- over 20.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate37.0%Closing EV estimate+20.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 12:28

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:48: over 18.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Bolton Wanderers total

Open match →FreeWon

under 16.52.50 at Betlive+1.50u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +33.2%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 55 settled picks and +3.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 16.52.50Model chance53.3%EV+33.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimate53.5%Closing EV estimate+33.7%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 17odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailableCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 17.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate61.2%Closing EV estimate+25.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 18odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.7%Model unavailableCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 18.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate+19.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 19odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 19.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00
- under 20odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailableCaptured 13 Oct, 02:00

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: under 16.5 at 2.50 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+76.0%ROI · 7 units staked

Profit+5.32units

W / L6 / 1picks

Avg odds2.05settled picks

Recorded picks71 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionship Home teamWolverhampton Away teamBolton Wanderers RefereeTim Robinson