Watford vs Burnley 0-4 — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Watford

0–4

HT 0–3

Burnley

Sat 10 Oct·08:00·Matchday 9·Vicarage Road·Burnley won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

6Corners2
0Cards0
14Shots17
6Shots on target8
8Fouls10
18Throw-ins22
2Offsides5
8Goal kicks11
4Saves6
18Tackles19
11Interceptions9
10Dribbles11

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Board

Matches

1 match

08:00WatfordvBurnleyChampionship8 won / 1 lost · +8.00u · 9 picks

Cards · Burnley total

Open match →FreeWon

under 1.5Actual: 0+0.95u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.959 Oct, 09:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +6.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +6.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.5%EV+6.2%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.5%EV+7.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.5%EV+10.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance41.8%EV-24.8%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 09:34: under 1.5 at 1.95 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 04:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 10.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.058 Oct, 04:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.94
Expected value at recommendation: +5.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +5.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.6%EV+5.8%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV+3.3%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV+3.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV+3.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV+23.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV+8.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 10.5 at 2.05 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Burnley total

Open match →FreeWon

under 10.5Actual: 10+0.85u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.859 Oct, 11:47

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +12.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +12.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.7%EV+12.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-16.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 11:47: under 10.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · Burnley total

Open match →FreeWon

over 1.5Actual: 4+1.08u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.088 Oct, 10:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 65.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.53
Expected value at recommendation: +36.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 65.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.53. Expected value at recommendation: +36.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.08
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance65.5%EV+36.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.0%EV+0.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.0%EV-6.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.0%EV-6.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.0%EV-6.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.0%EV-1.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:42: over 1.5 at 2.08 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 04:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon

over 27.5Actual: 31+1.05u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0510 Oct, 05:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 61.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.64
Expected value at recommendation: +25.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.64. Expected value at recommendation: +25.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 27.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.1%EV+25.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+26.4%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 05:42: over 27.5 at 2.05 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Watford total

Open match →VIPWon

over 13.5Actual: 14+1.02u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0210 Oct, 04:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 62.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.59
Expected value at recommendation: +27.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 62.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.59. Expected value at recommendation: +27.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

LiderbetAt recommendationover 13.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.9%EV+38.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 13.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.9%EV+27.1%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 04:06: over 13.5 at 2.02 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 04:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 9.5Actual: 14+1.32u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3210 Oct, 04:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +16.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +16.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

LiderbetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.2%EV+20.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.32
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.2%EV+16.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+0.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.14
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+7.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 04:06: over 9.5 at 2.32 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Watford total

Open match →FreeWon

over 4.5Actual: 6+0.98u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9810 Oct, 04:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.88
Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+5.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+5.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.50
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+33.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.07
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+10.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.2%EV-1.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 04:06: over 4.5 at 1.98 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Burnley total

Open match →FreeWon

over 5.5Actual: 8+1.75u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.758 Oct, 10:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.89
Expected value at recommendation: +45.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +45.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.0%EV+45.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.8%EV+0.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.8%EV-10.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.67
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.8%EV-4.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:36: over 5.5 at 2.75 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+88.9%ROI · 9 units staked

Profit+8.00units

W / L8 / 1picks

Avg odds2.12settled picks

Recorded picks91 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionship Home teamWatford Away teamBurnley RefereeAndy Madley

Matches

Cards · Burnley total

Corners · match total

Fouls · Burnley total

Goals · Burnley total

Shots · match total

Shots · Watford total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · Watford total

Shots on target · Burnley total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings