Watford vs Burnley — Championship
ChampionshipChampionship 26/27
Sat 10 Oct··Matchday 9·Vicarage Road·Burnley won
Match overview
12 priority stats · full time- 6Corners2
- 14Shots17
- 6Shots on target8
- 8Fouls10
- 18Throw-ins22
- 2Offsides5
- 8Goal kicks11
- 4Saves6
- 19Tackles19
- 11Interceptions8
- 10Dribbles11
Board
Matches
WatfordvBurnleyChampionship7 won / 1 lost · +7.05u · 9 picks
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 54.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +6.2%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.51.95Model chance54.5%EV+6.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:35Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate41.8%Closing EV estimate−18.5%margin13.8%
- under 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate68.9%Closing EV estimate−10.5%margin14.0%
KambiAt recommendationunder 1.51.97Model chance54.5%EV+7.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 1.5odds1.96Closing chance estimate41.8%Closing EV estimate−18.1%margin9.2%
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 1.52.02Model chance54.5%EV+10.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:38Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 0.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate14.1%Closing EV estimate−85.4%margin9.6%
- under 1.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate41.8%Closing EV estimate−14.3%margin8.3%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 1.51.80Model chance41.8%EV-24.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:31Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate41.8%Closing EV estimate−24.8%margin14.4%
- under 2odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%
Recommendation record
Recorded 9 Oct, 09:34: under 1.5 at 1.95 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 04:06. The original pick remains in the results.
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 51.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +5.8%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 10.52.05Model chance51.6%EV+5.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate90.3%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin9.3%
- over 7.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin9.4%
- over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin9.2%
- over 9.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin9.0%
- over 10.5odds2.04Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin8.9%
- over 11.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate40.3%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin8.9%
- over 12.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate30.1%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin9.2%
- over 13.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate21.5%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin8.9%
- over 14.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate14.7%Closing EV estimate−12.0%margin9.3%
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.52.00Model chance51.6%EV+3.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:32Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate90.3%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin12.3%
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin14.4%
- over 8.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin13.6%
- over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin13.2%
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin14.5%
- over 11.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate40.3%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin14.1%
- over 12.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate30.1%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin12.2%
- over 13.5odds5.20Closing chance estimate21.5%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin11.8%
- over 14.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate14.7%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin11.8%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.52.00Model chance51.6%EV+3.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:35Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin14.4%
- over 8.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin14.1%
- over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin13.2%
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin14.5%
- over 11.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate40.3%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin14.1%
- over 12.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate30.1%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin13.6%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.52.00Model chance51.6%EV+3.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:32Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin14.4%
- over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin13.1%
- over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin13.2%
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin14.5%
- over 11.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate40.3%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin14.1%
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.52.40Model chance51.6%EV+23.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:45Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 9.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+16.9%margin8.1%
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+23.9%margin8.3%
- over 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate40.3%Closing EV estimate+33.1%margin8.1%
- over 12.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate30.1%Closing EV estimate+44.5%margin8.3%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.52.10Model chance51.6%EV+8.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:38Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate97.9%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin6.4%
- over 5.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate95.1%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin8.4%
- over 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate90.3%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin7.8%
- over 7.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin8.2%
- over 8.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin8.2%
- over 9.5odds1.72Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin8.1%
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin7.9%
- over 11.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate40.3%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin8.1%
- over 12.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate30.1%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin8.0%
- over 13.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate21.5%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin8.2%
- over 14.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate14.7%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin8.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 10.5 at 2.05 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 60.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +12.3%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.51.85Model chance60.7%EV+12.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 10.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−11.5%margin8.2%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.51.70Model chance49.2%EV-16.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−16.4%margin11.5%
Recommendation record
Recorded 9 Oct, 11:47: under 10.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 65.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.53. Expected value at recommendation: +36.3%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 1.52.08Model chance65.5%EV+36.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds2.12Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin8.5%
Bet365Closing estimateover 1.52.10Model chance48.0%EV+0.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:30Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate80.1%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin6.8%
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin7.6%
- over 2.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate22.1%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin6.8%
- over 3.5odds11.00Closing chance estimate8.1%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin4.3%
- over 4.5odds29.00Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−28.6%margin2.8%
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.51.95Model chance48.0%EV-6.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:31Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate80.1%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin12.2%
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate−6.3%margin11.9%
- over 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate22.1%Closing EV estimate−17.1%margin12.1%
- over 3.5odds6.60Closing chance estimate8.1%Closing EV estimate−46.5%margin12.2%
- over 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−79.8%margin11.2%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 1.51.95Model chance48.0%EV-6.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:33Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate80.1%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin12.2%
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate−6.3%margin11.9%
- over 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate22.1%Closing EV estimate−17.1%margin12.1%
- over 3.5odds6.60Closing chance estimate8.1%Closing EV estimate−46.5%margin12.2%
- over 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−79.8%margin11.2%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.51.95Model chance48.0%EV-6.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate80.1%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin12.2%
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate−6.3%margin11.9%
- over 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate22.1%Closing EV estimate−17.1%margin12.1%
- over 3.5odds6.60Closing chance estimate8.1%Closing EV estimate−46.5%margin12.2%
- over 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−79.8%margin11.2%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 1.52.05Model chance48.0%EV-1.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate80.1%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin7.0%
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin6.9%
- over 2.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate22.1%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin7.3%
- over 3.5odds9.60Closing chance estimate8.1%Closing EV estimate−22.1%margin6.6%
- over 4.5odds24.00Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−40.9%margin3.8%
Recommendation record
Recorded 8 Oct, 10:42: over 1.5 at 2.08 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 04:06. The original pick remains in the results.
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 61.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.64. Expected value at recommendation: +25.2%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 27.52.05Model chance61.1%EV+25.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin11.4%
- over 25.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate73.1%Closing EV estimate+16.9%margin11.3%
- over 26.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate67.2%Closing EV estimate+21.0%margin11.1%
- over 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate61.0%Closing EV estimate+25.1%margin11.3%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 27.52.07Model chance61.0%EV+26.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 22.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin11.4%
- over 23.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin10.4%
- over 24.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin9.8%
- over 25.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate73.1%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin8.7%
- over 26.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate67.2%Closing EV estimate+21.0%margin8.2%
- over 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.07Closing chance estimate61.0%Closing EV estimate+26.4%margin8.2%
- over 28.5odds2.37Closing chance estimate54.7%Closing EV estimate+29.5%margin9.8%
- over 29.5odds2.77Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate+33.6%margin10.2%
- over 30.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate41.9%Closing EV estimate+38.4%margin10.3%
Recommendation record
Recorded 10 Oct, 05:42: over 27.5 at 2.05 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 62.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.59. Expected value at recommendation: +27.1%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
LiderbetAt recommendationover 13.52.20Model chance62.9%EV+38.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 10.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate86.6%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin11.4%
- over 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+20.0%margin12.1%
- over 12.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+29.5%margin11.1%
- over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate62.9%Closing EV estimate+38.4%margin12.1%
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 13.52.02Model chance62.9%EV+27.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 9.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate91.7%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin8.3%
- over 10.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate86.6%Closing EV estimate+18.7%margin8.1%
- over 11.5odds1.56Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+24.8%margin8.2%
- over 12.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+31.0%margin7.6%
- over 13.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate62.9%Closing EV estimate+35.3%margin8.2%
- over 14.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+39.8%margin8.1%
- over 15.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate43.9%Closing EV estimate+40.4%margin8.2%
- over 16.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate34.9%Closing EV estimate+22.2%margin7.9%
Recommendation record
Recorded 10 Oct, 04:06: over 13.5 at 2.02 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 04:48. The original pick remains in the results.
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 50.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +16.6%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
LiderbetAt recommendationover 9.52.40Model chance50.2%EV+20.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.4%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin11.4%
- over 8.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate+12.9%margin11.1%
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+20.6%margin10.6%
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.52.32Model chance50.2%EV+16.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate96.0%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin11.0%
- over 5.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate91.4%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin11.6%
- over 6.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin7.9%
- over 7.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate74.4%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin8.1%
- over 8.5odds1.76Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin8.1%
- over 9.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin9.0%
- over 10.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate+12.7%margin10.8%
- over 11.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate27.5%Closing EV estimate+10.1%margin11.2%
- over 12.5odds5.45Closing chance estimate18.8%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin10.9%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.52.00Model chance50.2%EV+0.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:03Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.4%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin14.0%
- over 8.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin14.7%
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin14.5%
KambiClosing estimateover 9.52.14Model chance50.2%EV+7.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 7.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate74.4%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin12.7%
- over 8.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin12.2%
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.14Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin12.1%
- over 10.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin12.0%
Recommendation record
Recorded 10 Oct, 04:06: over 9.5 at 2.32 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 4.51.98Model chance53.3%EV+5.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.0%
KambiAt recommendationover 4.51.98Model chance53.3%EV+5.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate71.1%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin11.0%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.98Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin11.1%
- over 5.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate36.0%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin11.4%
LiderbetAt recommendationover 4.52.50Model chance53.3%EV+33.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate71.1%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin11.5%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+33.1%margin11.4%
SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.52.07Model chance53.3%EV+10.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin11.6%
- over 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate85.9%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin11.1%
- over 3.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate71.1%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin9.4%
- over 4.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin8.6%
- over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate36.0%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin10.4%
- over 6.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate22.1%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin11.4%
- over 7.5odds7.10Closing chance estimate12.3%Closing EV estimate−12.8%margin11.2%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.51.85Model chance53.2%EV-1.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:03Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate71.1%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin14.0%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin14.7%
- over 5.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate36.0%Closing EV estimate−6.3%margin13.6%
Recommendation record
Recorded 10 Oct, 04:06: over 4.5 at 1.98 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 53.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +45.6%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 5.52.75Model chance53.0%EV+45.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate70.9%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin11.2%
- over 4.5odds1.93Closing chance estimate53.0%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin11.3%
- over 5.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate35.8%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin10.8%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.52.80Model chance35.8%EV+0.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:03Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate70.9%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin14.4%
- over 4.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate53.0%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin14.5%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.80Closing chance estimate35.8%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin13.8%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.52.50Model chance35.8%EV-10.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate70.9%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin11.1%
- over 4.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate53.0%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin11.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimate35.8%Closing EV estimate−10.5%margin11.4%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.52.67Model chance35.8%EV-4.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin11.4%
- over 2.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate85.8%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin11.5%
- over 3.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate70.9%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin9.6%
- over 4.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate53.0%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin8.3%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.67Closing chance estimate35.8%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin10.4%
- over 6.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate21.9%Closing EV estimate−12.5%margin11.2%
- over 7.5odds5.90Closing chance estimate12.1%Closing EV estimate−28.3%margin11.3%
Recommendation record
Recorded 8 Oct, 10:36: over 5.5 at 2.75 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.
Predictions