TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV 2-3 — Bundesliga

BundesligaBundesliga 26/27

TSG Hoffenheim

2–3

HT 1–1

Hamburger SV

Sat 10 Oct·07:30·Matchday 5·PreZero Arena·Hamburger SV won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

7Corners3
3Cards0
17Shots15
4Shots on target4
11Fouls15
25Throw-ins17
3Offsides2
7Goal kicks4
1Saves3
13Tackles17
13Interceptions15
10Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available6Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

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Matches

1 match

07:30TSG HoffenheimvHamburger SVBundesliga4 won / 4 lost · −0.10u · 8 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 3+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.918 Oct, 17:33

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 68.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.46
Expected value at recommendation: +30.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 68.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.46. Expected value at recommendation: +30.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance68.6%EV+30.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.6%EV+20.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.6%EV+20.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.76
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.6%EV+20.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.6%EV+20.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.6%EV+33.7%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 17:33: under 4.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · TSG Hoffenheim total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 6.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.958 Oct, 04:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.90
Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.2%EV+1.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.2%EV+5.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.9%EV+3.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV+7.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV+4.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV+8.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV+4.9%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: under 6.5 at 1.95 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Hamburger SV total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.107 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.98
Expected value at recommendation: +6.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +6.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.5%EV+6.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.7%EV+8.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.2%EV-5.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.2%EV-5.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.2%EV-7.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.2%EV-5.3%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Hamburger SV total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 15+0.97u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.978 Oct, 07:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 61.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.63
Expected value at recommendation: +21.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.63. Expected value at recommendation: +21.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.4%EV+21.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.3%EV+28.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.3%EV+22.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.3%EV+28.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 07:42: over 10.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 11:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 27.5Actual: 32−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.058 Oct, 05:02

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.82
Expected value at recommendation: +12.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +12.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 27.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.9%EV+12.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+4.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV-3.8%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+1.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+7.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV-1.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 05:02: under 27.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · TSG Hoffenheim total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 17.5Actual: 17+0.90u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.908 Oct, 10:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +3.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +3.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 17.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.6%EV+3.8%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV+7.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV-19.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV-16.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV+4.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV-19.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:36: under 17.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Hamburger SV total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 15−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 05:02

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +4.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +4.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.0%EV+4.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.86
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV-7.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV+19.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV+21.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV-10.6%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV+19.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.7%EV+4.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 05:02: under 9.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 8+1.12u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.128 Oct, 04:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.0%EV+6.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.0%EV-4.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.0%EV-2.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.0%EV+0.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.0%EV-2.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.0%EV-4.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: under 9.5 at 2.12 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 13:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−1.3%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit−0.10units

W / L4 / 4picks

Avg odds2.00settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBundesliga Home teamTSG Hoffenheim Away teamHamburger SV RefereeHarm Osmers

Match overview

Matches

Cards · match total

Corners · TSG Hoffenheim total

Corners · Hamburger SV total

Fouls · Hamburger SV total

Shots · match total

Shots · TSG Hoffenheim total

Shots · Hamburger SV total

Shots on target · match total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

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This category

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