TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV 2-3 — Bundesliga

BundesligaBundesliga 26/27

TSG Hoffenheim

2–3

HT 1–1

Hamburger SV

Sat 10 Oct·07:30·Matchday 5·PreZero Arena·Hamburger SV won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

7Corners3
3Cards0
17Shots15
4Shots on target4
11Fouls15
25Throw-ins17
3Offsides2
7Goal kicks4
1Saves3
13Tackles17
13Interceptions15
10Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

6 Free2 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match

07:30TSG HoffenheimvHamburger SVBundesliga4 won / 4 lost · −0.10u · 8 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeWon

under 4.51.91 at Bet365+0.91u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 68.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.46. Expected value at recommendation: +30.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 4.51.91Model chance68.6%EV+30.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+30.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:25
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.51.75Model chance68.6%EV+20.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate28.4%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:31
- under 3.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate+25.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:31
- under 4odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+20.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:31
- under 5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 5.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate82.9%Closing EV estimate+11.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:31
- under 6odds1.23Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate91.8%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.51.75Model chance68.6%EV+20.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate28.4%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:34
- under 3.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate+25.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:34
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+20.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:34
- under 5.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate82.9%Closing EV estimate+11.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:34
- under 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate91.8%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:34
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.51.76Model chance68.6%EV+20.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:41
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.76Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- under 5.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate82.9%Closing EV estimate+16.1%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.51.75Model chance68.6%EV+20.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate28.4%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
- under 3.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate+25.6%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+20.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
- under 5.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate82.9%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
- under 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate91.8%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.51.95Model chance68.6%EV+33.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds20.00Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−50.9%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 07:38
- under 1.5odds9.40Closing chance estimate11.6%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 2.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate28.4%Closing EV estimate+35.0%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 3.5odds2.82Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate+38.9%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+33.7%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 5.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate82.9%Closing EV estimate+22.7%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 6.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate91.8%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 7.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate96.4%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 8.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 17:33: under 4.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · TSG Hoffenheim total

Open match →FreeLost

under 6.51.95 at Liderbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 6.51.88Model chance54.2%EV+1.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:05
BetliveAt recommendationunder 6.51.95Model chance54.2%EV+5.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate38.5%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:01
- under 6.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:01
- under 7.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:01
- under 8.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:01
- under 9.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:01
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.51.95Model chance52.9%EV+3.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate38.5%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
- under 6.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
- under 7.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
- under 8.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
- under 9.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:04
Bet365Closing estimateunder 6.52.00Model chance53.8%EV+7.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 6.51.95Model chance53.8%EV+4.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:02
- under 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate38.5%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 07:32
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 07:32
- under 7.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 07:32
- under 8.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 07:32
- under 9.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 07:32
KambiClosing estimateunder 6.52.02Model chance53.8%EV+8.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate−8.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 5.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate38.5%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 7.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 9.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 10.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:57
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 6.51.95Model chance53.8%EV+4.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:41
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds25.00Closing chance estimate1.4%Closing EV estimate−64.4%margin3.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 2.5odds11.00Closing chance estimate5.1%Closing EV estimate−43.9%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 3.5odds6.10Closing chance estimate12.6%Closing EV estimate−23.3%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 4.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate−8.4%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 5.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate38.5%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 7.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 8.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 9.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 10.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- under 11.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate96.2%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin6.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: under 6.5 at 1.95 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Hamburger SV total

Open match →FreeLost

over 3.52.10 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +6.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.52.10Model chance50.5%EV+6.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
KambiAt recommendationover 3.52.10Model chance51.7%EV+8.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- over 2.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- over 3.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate+3.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- over 4.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- over 5.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate18.1%Closing EV estimate−18.6%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.51.85Model chance51.2%EV-5.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 07:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 04:27
- over 2.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 07:30
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 04:27
- over 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−12.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 07:30
- over 5.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate18.1%Closing EV estimate−18.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 04:27
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.51.85Model chance51.2%EV-5.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:02
- over 2.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 07:32
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 07:32
- over 4.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−11.2%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 07:32
- over 5.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate18.1%Closing EV estimate−14.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:02
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.51.80Model chance51.2%EV-7.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−6.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−7.9%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- over 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−9.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- over 5.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate18.1%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.51.85Model chance51.2%EV-5.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:41
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate97.4%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 1.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 4.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−14.5%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 5.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate18.1%Closing EV estimate−29.5%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 6.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate9.1%Closing EV estimate−45.5%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 7.5odds9.10Closing chance estimate4.1%Closing EV estimate−62.5%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 8.5odds15.00Closing chance estimate1.7%Closing EV estimate−74.3%margin4.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 9.5odds24.00Closing chance estimate0.7%Closing EV estimate−84.3%margin3.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Hamburger SV total

Open match →VIPWon

over 10.51.97 at Superbet+0.97u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.63. Expected value at recommendation: +21.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 10.51.97Model chance61.4%EV+21.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.68Closing chance estimate72.1%Closing EV estimate+21.1%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- over 10.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+25.8%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.52.10Model chance61.3%EV+28.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate81.4%Closing EV estimate+14.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- over 9odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate72.1%Closing EV estimate+22.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- over 10odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+28.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- over 11odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.52.00Model chance61.3%EV+22.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate81.4%Closing EV estimate+14.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate72.1%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+22.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- over 11.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+32.6%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.52.10Model chance61.3%EV+28.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:06
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate81.4%Closing EV estimate+14.0%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- over 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate72.1%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+28.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:06

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 07:42: over 10.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 11:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 27.52.05 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +12.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 27.52.05Model chance54.9%EV+12.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 23.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate28.5%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:38
- under 24.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate34.8%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:38
- under 25.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate41.4%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:40
- under 26.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- under 27.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate55.0%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 28.5odds1.68Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:38
- under 29.5odds1.51Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:40
- under 30.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:38
- under 31.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+0.0%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:39
Bet365Closing estimateunder 27.51.91Model chance55.0%EV+4.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate55.0%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
BetliveClosing estimateunder 27.51.75Model chance55.0%EV-3.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 24.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate34.8%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 25odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 25.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate41.4%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 26odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 26.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 27odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate55.0%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 28odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 28.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 29odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 29.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 30odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 30.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 27.51.85Model chance55.0%EV+1.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 24.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate34.8%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 25.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate41.4%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 26.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate55.0%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 28.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 29.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 30.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
KambiClosing estimateunder 27.51.95Model chance55.0%EV+7.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 26.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate55.0%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 28.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 29.5odds1.56Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 27.51.80Model chance55.0%EV-1.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 24.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate34.8%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 25.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate41.4%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 26.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate55.0%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 28.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 29.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 30.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 05:02: under 27.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · TSG Hoffenheim total

Open match →FreeWon

under 17.51.90 at Superbet+0.90u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +3.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 17.51.90Model chance54.6%EV+3.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 14.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate27.9%Closing EV estimate−17.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 15.5odds2.42Closing chance estimate36.2%Closing EV estimate−12.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 16.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate−7.8%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 17.5odds1.76Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 18.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate62.3%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 19.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 20.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
Bet365Closing estimateunder 17.52.00Model chance53.8%EV+7.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:02
BetliveClosing estimateunder 17.51.50Model chance53.8%EV-19.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 14.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate27.9%Closing EV estimate−27.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 15odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 15.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate36.2%Closing EV estimate−24.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 16odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 16.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 17odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate−19.3%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 18odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 18.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate62.3%Closing EV estimate−16.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 17.51.55Model chance53.8%EV-16.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate27.9%Closing EV estimate−26.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 15.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate36.2%Closing EV estimate−24.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 16.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate−16.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 18.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate62.3%Closing EV estimate−16.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
KambiClosing estimateunder 17.51.95Model chance53.8%EV+4.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 18.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate62.3%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 17.51.50Model chance53.8%EV-19.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 15.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate36.2%Closing EV estimate−24.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 16.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate45.0%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate−19.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:36: under 17.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Hamburger SV total

Open match →VIPLost

under 9.52.00 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +4.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 9.52.00Model chance52.0%EV+4.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate−8.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:02
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 9.51.86Model chance49.7%EV-7.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.86Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:05
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.52.40Model chance49.7%EV+19.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 10odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 10.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate+16.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 11odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 11.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 12odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 12.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.52.45Model chance49.7%EV+21.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate37.4%Closing EV estimate+31.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate+21.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 10.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate+20.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+15.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 12.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
KambiClosing estimateunder 9.51.80Model chance49.7%EV-10.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate−10.6%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 10.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.52.40Model chance49.7%EV+19.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 10.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate+16.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+15.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.52.10Model chance49.7%EV+4.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate16.1%Closing EV estimate−32.2%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:38
- under 7.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate25.9%Closing EV estimate−8.1%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 8.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate37.4%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 10.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 11.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 12.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 05:02: under 9.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeWon

under 9.52.12 at Kambi+1.12u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.52.12Model chance50.0%EV+6.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds2.88Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 9.5odds2.17Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 10.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate62.4%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
- under 11.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate73.3%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:39
Bet365Closing estimateunder 9.51.91Model chance50.0%EV-4.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:25
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.51.95Model chance50.0%EV-2.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 9odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 10odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 10.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate62.4%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 11odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 11.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate73.3%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
- under 12odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.52.00Model chance50.0%EV+0.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 7.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate25.3%Closing EV estimate−6.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 8.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate62.4%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- under 11.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate73.3%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.51.95Model chance50.0%EV-2.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate15.4%Closing EV estimate−23.0%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 7.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate25.3%Closing EV estimate−12.7%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 8.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 10.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate62.4%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 11.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate73.3%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 12.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.51.90Model chance50.0%EV-4.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds7.40Closing chance estimate8.2%Closing EV estimate−39.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate15.4%Closing EV estimate−24.5%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 7.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate25.3%Closing EV estimate−11.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 8.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 10.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate62.4%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 11.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate73.3%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 12.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37
- under 13.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate88.6%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:37

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: under 9.5 at 2.12 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 13:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−1.3%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit−0.10units

W / L4 / 4picks

Avg odds2.00settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBundesliga Home teamTSG Hoffenheim Away teamHamburger SV RefereeHarm Osmers

Matches

Cards · match total

Corners · TSG Hoffenheim total

Corners · Hamburger SV total

Fouls · Hamburger SV total

Shots · match total

Shots · TSG Hoffenheim total

Shots · Hamburger SV total

Shots on target · match total

This match

Around this match

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