Swansea City vs Norwich City 2-1 — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Swansea City

2–1

HT 0–1

Norwich City

Sat 10 Oct·05:30·Matchday 9·Swansea.com Stadium·Swansea City won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

3Corners2
1Cards1
12Shots11
8Shots on target5
10Fouls8
28Throw-ins21
2Offsides6
3Goal kicks9
4Saves5
22Tackles27
8Interceptions18
10Dribbles7

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

4 Free2 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match

05:30Swansea CityvNorwich CityChampionship2 won / 4 lost · −2.18u · 6 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 3.51.85 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +9.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 3.51.85Model chance59.1%EV+9.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds5.55Closing chance estimate97.7%Closing EV estimate+442.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:06
- over 1.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate+968.5%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 2.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 4.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate−12.7%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
Bet365Closing estimateover 3.51.83Model chance52.1%EV-4.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:25
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 3.51.81Model chance52.1%EV-5.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.81Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:02
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.51.75Model chance52.1%EV-8.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
- over 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
- over 3odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:01
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate−8.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
- over 4odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:01
- over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
- over 5.5odds3.95Closing chance estimate18.1%Closing EV estimate−28.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.51.75Model chance52.1%EV-8.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
- over 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate−8.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
- over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
- over 5.5odds3.95Closing chance estimate18.1%Closing EV estimate−28.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
KambiClosing estimateover 3.51.81Model chance52.1%EV-5.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:41
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.81Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 02:38
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.51.75Model chance52.1%EV-8.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
- over 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate−8.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
- over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
- over 5.5odds3.95Closing chance estimate18.1%Closing EV estimate−28.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.52.00Model chance52.1%EV+4.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:25
- over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate−3.1%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:25
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:25
- over 4.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:25

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 3.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 10.52.15 at Betlive−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +9.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 10.52.20Model chance51.0%EV+12.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+22.5%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 10.52.15Model chance51.0%EV+9.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 14:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate89.7%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:01
- over 7.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
- over 8.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
- over 9.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
- over 11.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate38.7%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:18
- over 12.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:01
- over 13.5odds5.20Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:01
- over 14.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate13.7%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:01
CrocobetAt recommendationover 10.52.15Model chance51.0%EV+9.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 07:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
- over 8.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
- over 9.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
- over 11.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate38.7%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:20
- over 12.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 07:34
KambiAt recommendationover 10.52.20Model chance51.0%EV+12.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:41
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate89.7%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:43
- over 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- over 8.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+14.9%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- over 9.5odds1.94Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate+19.6%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- over 10.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+22.5%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:43
- over 11.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate38.7%Closing EV estimate+24.0%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- over 12.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+20.4%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- over 13.5odds5.75Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate+16.5%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:43
- over 14.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate13.7%Closing EV estimate−12.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 04:33
LiderbetAt recommendationover 10.52.15Model chance51.0%EV+9.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
- over 8.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
- over 9.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin15.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
- over 11.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate38.7%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:32
SuperbetAt recommendationover 10.52.30Model chance51.0%EV+17.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate97.7%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 5.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate94.7%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate89.7%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate82.3%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 8.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 9.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate+14.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+15.0%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 11.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate38.7%Closing EV estimate+12.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 12.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 13.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 14.5odds6.60Closing chance estimate13.7%Closing EV estimate−9.6%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.52.55Model chance50.0%EV+27.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:35
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate+17.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:35
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.55Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+27.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:35
- over 11.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate38.7%Closing EV estimate+39.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:35
- over 12.5odds5.20Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+49.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:35

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 10.5 at 2.15 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Norwich City total

Open match →FreeLost

over 4.51.91 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 65.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.54. Expected value at recommendation: +24.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.51.91Model chance65.1%EV+24.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:25
KambiAt recommendationover 4.51.85Model chance61.6%EV+14.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:41
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.52Closing chance estimate77.0%Closing EV estimate+17.1%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- over 4.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+21.9%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:43
- over 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate44.0%Closing EV estimate+21.0%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:43
- over 6.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:43
SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.51.88Model chance62.4%EV+17.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 10:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate96.6%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate89.4%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 3.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate77.0%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 5.5odds2.57Closing chance estimate44.0%Closing EV estimate+13.0%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 6.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 7.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate17.5%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.51.75Model chance60.9%EV+6.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 14:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate89.4%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:01
- over 3.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate77.0%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:01
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:01
- over 5.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate44.0%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:01
- over 6.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 12:01
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.51.70Model chance60.9%EV+3.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 07:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate77.0%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 07:34
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 07:34
- over 5.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate44.0%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 07:34
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.51.75Model chance60.9%EV+6.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:36
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate89.4%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:36
- over 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate77.0%Closing EV estimate+2.5%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:36
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:36
- over 5.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate44.0%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:36
- over 6.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate29.0%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:36
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.51.85Model chance60.9%EV+12.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate89.4%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:25
- over 3.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate77.0%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:25
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+12.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:25
- over 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate44.0%Closing EV estimate+21.0%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:25

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 4.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · Swansea City total

Open match →FreeWon

over 1.51.95 at Betlive+0.95u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +2.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 1.51.95Model chance52.3%EV+2.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:31
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:01
- over 2.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate25.7%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:01
- over 3.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate10.1%Closing EV estimate−31.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:31
- over 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate3.3%Closing EV estimate−72.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 11:01
CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.51.95Model chance52.3%EV+2.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:06
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:06
- over 2.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate25.7%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:06
- over 3.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate10.1%Closing EV estimate−31.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- over 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate3.3%Closing EV estimate−72.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 11:03
LiderbetAt recommendationover 1.51.95Model chance52.3%EV+2.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:39
- over 1.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:39
- over 2.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate25.7%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:39
- over 3.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate10.1%Closing EV estimate−31.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:39
- over 4.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate3.3%Closing EV estimate−72.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 11:04
Bet365Closing estimateover 1.52.20Model chance52.3%EV+15.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate+3.4%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
- over 2.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate25.7%Closing EV estimate+28.6%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
- over 3.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate10.1%Closing EV estimate+31.9%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
- over 4.5odds29.00Closing chance estimate3.3%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin2.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
SuperbetClosing estimateover 1.52.07Model chance52.3%EV+8.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:41
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.07Closing chance estimate52.3%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 2.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate25.7%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 3.5odds10.00Closing chance estimate10.1%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 4.5odds26.00Closing chance estimate3.3%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin3.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: over 1.5 at 1.95 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 17:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Swansea City total

Open match →VIPLost

over 13.51.90 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +14.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 13.51.90Model chance60.1%EV+14.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+11.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- over 11.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+14.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- over 12.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate71.7%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- over 13.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate62.6%Closing EV estimate+20.2%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate53.0%Closing EV estimate+22.0%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- over 15.5odds2.77Closing chance estimate43.5%Closing EV estimate+20.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- over 16.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate34.6%Closing EV estimate+17.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 09:47: over 13.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 02:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Swansea City total

Open match →VIPWon

over 4.51.87 at Kambi+0.87u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 4.51.80Model chance57.1%EV+2.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
- over 5.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate39.9%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:34
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 4.51.87Model chance55.2%EV+3.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 04:41
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 15:38
- over 4.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
- over 5.5odds2.63Closing chance estimate39.9%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 04:41
SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.51.95Model chance55.5%EV+8.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:40
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate96.0%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 2.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:40
- over 4.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- over 5.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate39.9%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- over 6.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate25.3%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:41
- over 7.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate14.6%Closing EV estimate−15.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 17:36: over 4.5 at 1.87 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 03:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−36.3%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit−2.18units

W / L2 / 4picks

Avg odds1.94settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionship Home teamSwansea City Away teamNorwich City RefereeAndrew Kitchen

Matches

Cards · match total

Corners · match total

Corners · Norwich City total

Goals · Swansea City total

Shots · Swansea City total

Shots on target · Swansea City total

This match

Around this match

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