Stoke City vs Middlesbrough — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Stoke City

2–3

Middlesbrough

Yesterday··Matchday 10·Middlesbrough won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 4Corners3
  • 1Cards1
  • 8Shots20
  • 1Shots on target9
  • 9Fouls11
  • 21Throw-ins13
  • 1Offsides1
  • 9Goal kicks7
  • 7Saves0
  • 6Tackles20
  • 6Interceptions8
  • 6Dribbles8
OddsOddsStatsStatsPredictionsPicksRefereeRefereeCoachCoach
3 Free1 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match
Stoke CityvMiddlesbroughChampionship3 won / 1 lost · +2.08u · 4 picks

Corners · Stoke City total

Open match →FreeLost
over 5.52.48 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +28.0%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 77 settled picks and +6.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationover 5.52.45Model chance51.7%EV+26.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 23:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate88.4%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.7%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+13.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+24.0%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+39.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 5.52.48Model chance51.6%EV+28.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:54

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate77.7%Closing EV estimate+11.1%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+18.1%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.43Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+23.0%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+25.0%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 5.52.47Model chance51.6%EV+27.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate88.4%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate77.7%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+17.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.47Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+25.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate25.7%Closing EV estimate+31.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.52.50Model chance50.6%EV+26.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 04:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate77.7%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+9.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+26.5%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.52.45Model chance50.6%EV+24.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate88.4%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate77.7%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+9.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+24.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+41.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 5.52.75Model chance50.6%EV+39.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:50

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate88.4%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate77.7%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.75Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+39.2%margin5.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 5.5 at 2.48 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Middlesbrough total

Open match →FreeWon
under 5.51.92 at Superbet+0.92u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 63.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.59. Expected value at recommendation: +20.9%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 102 settled picks and +1.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 5.51.85Model chance63.0%EV+16.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 23:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate34.6%Closing EV estimate+45.5%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate49.9%Closing EV estimate+27.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+18.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate84.9%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 5.51.80Model chance63.0%EV+13.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate34.6%Closing EV estimate+49.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate49.9%Closing EV estimate+29.8%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate84.9%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.51.92Model chance63.0%EV+20.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate20.1%Closing EV estimate+36.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate34.6%Closing EV estimate+38.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate49.9%Closing EV estimate+30.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+22.9%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+16.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate84.9%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate91.2%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 5.51.83Model chance64.0%EV+17.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+17.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.51.80Model chance64.0%EV+15.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 04:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 4.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate49.9%Closing EV estimate+24.8%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 5.51.77Model chance64.0%EV+13.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:54

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 4.5odds2.33Closing chance estimate49.9%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.77Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate84.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 5.51.75Model chance64.0%EV+12.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:50

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds7.50Closing chance estimate20.1%Closing EV estimate+50.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate34.6%Closing EV estimate+38.6%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate49.9%Closing EV estimate+27.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate64.0%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: under 5.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Stoke City total

Open match →VIPWon
under 11.51.91 at Bet365+0.91u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 11.51.91Model chance54.1%EV+3.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 11.51.95Model chance52.1%EV+1.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate69.7%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 11.52.07Model chance52.1%EV+7.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate33.1%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate42.5%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.07Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.74Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.51Closing chance estimate69.7%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.0%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 05:37: under 11.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Middlesbrough total

Open match →FreeWon
under 19.52.25 at Betlive+1.25u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +20.3%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 55 settled picks and +3.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 19.52.25Model chance53.4%EV+20.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 19odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.1%Model unavailable
    • under 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+20.2%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 20odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • under 20.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate60.4%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 21odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.4%Model unavailable
    • under 21.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate67.0%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 22odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.3%Model unavailable
    • under 22.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate73.0%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: under 19.5 at 2.25 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return+52.0%ROI · 4 units staked
Profit+2.08units
W / L3 / 1picks
Avg odds2.14settled picks
Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionshipHome teamStoke CityAway teamMiddlesbroughRefereeElliot Bell

Previous meetings