SC Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar 2-2 — Eredivisie

EredivisieEredivisie 26/27

SC Cambuur

2–2

HT 2–1

AZ Alkmaar

Sun 18 Oct·06:30·Matchday 9·Kooi Stadion·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

3Corners6
3Cards2
11Shots7
6Shots on target4
11Fouls15
12Throw-ins23
8Goal kicks2
2Saves4
23Tackles18
13Interceptions3
8Dribbles9

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

0Free available0VIP available2Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

06:30SC CambuurvAZ AlkmaarEredivisie1 won / 3 lost · −1.98u · 4 picks

Cards · SC Cambuur total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 3+1.02u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0218 Oct, 06:09

Closing odds2.0218 Oct, 03:04

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 50.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 36 settled picksand +20.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds2.02
Unchanged
Model chance50.1%EV+1.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 03:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate50.1%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 03:04
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV-2.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 01:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate50.1%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 01:33
CrocobetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV-2.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 03:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate50.1%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 03:04
- over 2.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate22.3%Closing EV estimate−24.3%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 03:04
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV-4.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 06:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate50.1%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 06:25
- over 2.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate22.3%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 06:25
SuperbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV+6.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 03:40
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.1%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 03:40
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.12Closing chance estimate50.1%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 03:40
- over 2.5odds4.15Closing chance estimate22.3%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 03:40

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 06:09: over 1.5 at 2.02 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 9−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3013 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds2.0018 Oct, 06:00

Odds down−0.30

Model chance at recommendation: 50.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.98
Expected value at recommendation: +16.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +16.3%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +4.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds2.00
Odds down−0.30
Model chance50.6%EV+16.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 06:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate88.9%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:19
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate81.2%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:19
- over 8.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:43
- over 9.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate60.4%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:43
- over 10.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate48.9%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 06:00
- over 11.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:43
- over 12.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate28.0%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 06:00
- over 13.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate19.8%Closing EV estimate−14.8%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 06:00
- over 14.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate13.4%Closing EV estimate−34.2%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 18:20
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.9%EV-2.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 05:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate88.9%Closing EV estimate−3.1%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:02
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate81.2%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:24
- over 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:24
- over 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate60.4%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin15.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:24
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate48.9%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:24
- over 11.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:24
- over 12.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate28.0%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:02
- over 13.5odds4.65Closing chance estimate19.8%Closing EV estimate−7.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:02
- over 14.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate13.4%Closing EV estimate−14.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:02
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.9%EV-4.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 23:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate88.9%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:07
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate81.2%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:33
- over 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:33
- over 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate60.4%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin15.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:33
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate48.9%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:33
- over 11.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:33
- over 12.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate28.0%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:07
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.9%EV-2.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 23:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate81.2%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 8.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate60.4%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin15.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate48.9%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 11.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.9%EV+1.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 23:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate97.4%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin6.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 18:19
- over 5.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate94.2%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 6.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.9%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 7.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate81.2%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 8.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 9.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate60.4%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.07Closing chance estimate48.9%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 11.5odds2.57Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 12.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate28.0%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 13.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate19.8%Closing EV estimate−14.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26
- over 14.5odds5.65Closing chance estimate13.4%Closing EV estimate−24.1%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:26

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 10.5 at 2.30 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · AZ Alkmaar total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 15−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9518 Oct, 06:09

Closing odds1.9518 Oct, 02:03

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 53.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +4.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +4.5%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 283 settled picksand +10.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds1.95
Unchanged
Model chance53.6%EV+4.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 02:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 02:03
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 02:03
- under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate64.1%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 02:03
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV-0.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 00:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate42.4%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 00:39
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 00:39
- under 11.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.1%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 00:39
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+7.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 06:16
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 06:16

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 06:09: under 10.5 at 1.95 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · AZ Alkmaar total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 19.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9516 Oct, 09:08

Closing odds1.9118 Oct, 06:00

Odds down−0.04

Model chance at recommendation: 51.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +1.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +1.0%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 125 settled picksand +7.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 19.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds1.91
Odds down−0.04
Model chance51.8%EV+1.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 06:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 18.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 06:00
- over 19.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate49.6%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 06:00
- over 20.5odds2.28Closing chance estimate43.1%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 04:38
BetliveClosing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV+4.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 01:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 16.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate69.4%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 01:33
- over 17.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate62.9%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 01:33
- over 18.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 01:33
- over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate49.6%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 01:33
- over 20.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate43.1%Closing EV estimate+12.1%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 01:33
SuperbetClosing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV+14.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 18 Oct, 05:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 14.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:17
- over 15.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate75.5%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:05
- over 16.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate69.4%Closing EV estimate+6.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 03:40
- over 17.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate62.9%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 03:40
- over 18.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 03:40
- over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate49.6%Closing EV estimate+14.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:05
- over 20.5odds2.72Closing chance estimate43.1%Closing EV estimate+17.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 18 Oct, 05:05

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 09:08: over 19.5 at 1.95 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 14:35. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−49.5%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit−1.98units

W / L1 / 3picks

Avg odds2.06settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionEredivisie Home teamSC Cambuur Away teamAZ Alkmaar RefereeStan Teuben

Match overview

Matches

Cards · SC Cambuur total

Corners · match total

Fouls · AZ Alkmaar total

Shots · AZ Alkmaar total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

On this page

This category

StatsGem