Real Madrid vs Villarreal 1-0 — LaLiga

LaLigaLaLiga 26/27

Real Madrid

1–0

Villarreal

Sat 10 Oct·13:00·Matchday 8·Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid·Real Madrid won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

9Corners3
5Cards2
11Shots15
4Shots on target4
8Fouls13
21Throw-ins19
3Offsides1
9Goal kicks9
4Saves3
19Tackles15
5Interceptions6
11Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

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0Free available0VIP available11Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00Real MadridvVillarrealLaLiga1 won / 12 lost · −11.00u · 13 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.259 Oct, 04:26

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 64.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.56
Expected value at recommendation: +44.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 64.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.56. Expected value at recommendation: +44.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance64.3%EV+44.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+36.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+30.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+30.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+30.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+27.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+36.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 04:26: under 3.5 at 2.25 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · Real Madrid total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.978 Oct, 13:17

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +19.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +19.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

KambiAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.0%EV+16.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.0%EV+17.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.8%EV+19.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.8%EV-5.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.8%EV+0.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 13:17: under 1.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 07:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Villarreal total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.107 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.86
Expected value at recommendation: +13.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +13.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+26.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+4.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+4.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+18.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.6%EV+5.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.0%EV+13.5%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.9%EV+19.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 16:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 20.5Actual: 21−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.809 Oct, 05:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 67.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.48
Expected value at recommendation: +89.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 67.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.48. Expected value at recommendation: +89.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveClosing estimateunder 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 20.5
At recommendation2.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance67.8%EV+89.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 05:42: under 20.5 at 2.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 09:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Villarreal total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.259 Oct, 05:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 71.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.40
Expected value at recommendation: +60.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 71.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.40. Expected value at recommendation: +60.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance71.5%EV+60.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 05:42: under 11.5 at 2.25 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.758 Oct, 13:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +42.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +42.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.9%EV+42.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.63
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV+36.3%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.74
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV+42.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV+24.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV+40.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV+35.0%
14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV+42.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.9%EV+36.0%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 13:22: over 4.5 at 2.75 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 31.5Actual: 26−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 04:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +13.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +13.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 31.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.8%EV+13.6%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 31.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+15.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 31.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.86
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+13.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 31.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+12.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 31.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.82
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+11.0%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 31.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+15.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: over 31.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 11:23. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Real Madrid total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 19.5Actual: 11−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.978 Oct, 04:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 70.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.43
Expected value at recommendation: +38.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 70.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.43. Expected value at recommendation: +38.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveClosing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.6%EV+12.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.6%EV+20.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 19.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance70.4%EV+38.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.6%EV+16.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.82
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.6%EV+28.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 19.5 at 1.97 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Villarreal total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 15−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.808 Oct, 05:02

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 64.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.56
Expected value at recommendation: +16.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 64.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.56. Expected value at recommendation: +16.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance64.4%EV+16.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance64.4%EV+21.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.5%EV+3.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.5%EV-15.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.5%EV-9.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.5%EV-9.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 05:02: under 11.5 at 1.80 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 16:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 04:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 67.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.50
Expected value at recommendation: +34.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 67.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.50. Expected value at recommendation: +34.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance67.0%EV+34.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.78
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.1%EV+24.8%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.1%EV+5.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.1%EV+5.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.1%EV+15.7%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.1%EV+5.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 07:32. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Real Madrid total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 8.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.758 Oct, 04:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +40.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +40.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 8.5
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.1%EV+40.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationover 8.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.6%EV+13.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 8.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.6%EV+13.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 8.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.6%EV+13.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.5%EV+33.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds3.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.5%EV+45.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: over 8.5 at 2.75 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 07:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Villarreal total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 4+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 13:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +3.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +3.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.0%EV+3.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.8%EV-0.5%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.8%EV-0.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.8%EV-1.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.8%EV-3.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.76
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.8%EV+0.0%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 13:22: over 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Villarreal total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.968 Oct, 13:17

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +5.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +5.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.96
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.7%EV+5.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.7%EV+3.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.2%EV-17.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.2%EV-20.2%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.2%EV-20.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.2%EV-20.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 13:17: under 3.5 at 1.96 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 13:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−84.6%ROI · 13 units staked

Profit−11.00units

W / L1 / 12picks

Avg odds2.20settled picks

Recorded picks131 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLaLiga Home teamReal Madrid Away teamVillarreal RefereeIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Match overview

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