Real Madrid vs Sevilla 4-1 — LaLiga

LaLigaLaLiga 26/27

Real Madrid

4–1

HT 2–0

Sevilla

Sun 18 Oct·13:00·Matchday 9·Santiago Bernabéu·Real Madrid won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

1Corners2
2Cards2
15Shots11
8Shots on target5
10Fouls14
17Throw-ins16
1Offsides0
6Goal kicks11
4Saves3
18Tackles20
9Interceptions9
10Dribbles10

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available4Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00Real MadridvSevillaLaLiga2 won / 4 lost · −1.90u · 6 picks

Fouls · Sevilla total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 14−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3018 Oct, 06:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +32.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +32.1%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 283 settled picksand +10.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.5%EV+32.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 06:09: under 12.5 at 2.30 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 07:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Saves · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2018 Oct, 07:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +12.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +12.9%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 59 settled picksand +16.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.3%EV+7.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.3%EV+12.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.87
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 07:42: over 7.5 at 2.20 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 12:23. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Sevilla total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 11−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1218 Oct, 07:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.77
Expected value at recommendation: +20.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +20.3%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 145 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.8%EV+20.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 07:42: under 9.5 at 2.12 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 11.5Actual: 13+1.20u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2013 Oct, 11:32

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.86
Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 57 settled picksand +2.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 11.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.5%EV+6.0%
CrocobetAt recommendationover 11.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.3%EV+18.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 11.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.0%EV+18.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 11.5
At recommendation2.65
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.5%EV+33.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:32: over 11.5 at 2.20 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Real Madrid total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 17.5Actual: 17+0.90u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9018 Oct, 10:01

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +6.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +6.7%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 436 settled picksand +2.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 17.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.2%EV+6.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 10:01: under 17.5 at 1.90 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 12:23. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Sevilla total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 15.5Actual: 16−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8818 Oct, 03:33

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 66.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.52
Expected value at recommendation: +24.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 66.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +24.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 129 settled picksand +5.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 15.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance66.1%EV+24.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 03:33: under 15.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 09:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−31.7%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit−1.90units

W / L2 / 4picks

Avg odds2.10settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLaLiga Home teamReal Madrid Away teamSevilla RefereeMateo Busquets Ferrer

Match overview

Matches

Fouls · Sevilla total

Saves · match total

Shots · Sevilla total

Shots on target · match total

Throw-ins · Real Madrid total

Throw-ins · Sevilla total

This match

Around this match

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