Netherlands vs Serbia 2-1 — UEFA Nations League

UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League 26/27

Netherlands

2–1

HT 1–1

Serbia

Sun 4 Oct·12:45·Matchday 4·Philips Stadion·Netherlands won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

6Corners4
1Cards4
22Shots14
7Shots on target4
14Fouls13
13Throw-ins14
1Offsides2
8Goal kicks8
3Saves4
14Tackles11
8Interceptions11
6Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

12:45

Netherlandsv

SerbiaUEFA Nations League3 won / 9 lost · −4.70u · 12 picks

Corners · Netherlands total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 6−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.164 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 7.5
At recommendation2.16
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 7.5
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance37.1%EV-27.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance37.1%EV-27.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance37.1%EV-27.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 7.5 at 2.16 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 20.5Actual: 27−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.554 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 20.5
At recommendation2.50
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 20.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 20.5
At recommendation2.55
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 12:19: under 20.5 at 2.55 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · Serbia total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.054 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 11.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 11.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 11.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 11.5 at 2.05 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Goal kicks · Netherlands total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 4.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Goal kicks · Serbia total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.074 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 10.5
At recommendation2.07
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 10.5 at 2.07 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Saves · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 7+1.40u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.404 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 6.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.79
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.4%EV+11.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 6.5 at 2.40 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Netherlands total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 20.5Actual: 22+1.10u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 20.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.1%EV+13.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.76
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.1%EV+2.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.1%EV+1.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.1%EV-5.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 20.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Netherlands total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 21.5Actual: 22−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.024 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 21.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 21.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-28.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 21.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.81
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-11.0%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 21.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-23.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 21.5 at 2.02 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Netherlands total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.254 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 7.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 7.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 7.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.9%EV+5.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.67
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.9%EV-11.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.9%EV-2.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 7.5 at 2.25 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Serbia total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.904 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 2.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 2.5
At recommendation1.72
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.53
No saved recommendation
Model chance65.1%EV-0.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.58
No saved recommendation
Model chance65.1%EV+2.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.58
No saved recommendation
Model chance65.1%EV+2.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 2.5 at 1.90 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 30.5Actual: 27+1.80u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.804 Oct, 12:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 30.5
At recommendation2.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 12:05: under 30.5 at 2.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Throw-ins · Serbia total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 13.5Actual: 14−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.654 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 13.5
At recommendation2.65
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 13.5 at 2.65 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−39.2%ROI · 12 units staked

Profit−4.70units

W / L3 / 9picks

Avg odds2.25settled picks

Recorded picks121 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Nations League Home teamNetherlands Away teamSerbia RefereeDonatas Rumsas

Previous meetings

Sun 27 SepSerbia 1-2 Netherlands

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Netherlands total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · Serbia total

Goal kicks · Netherlands total

Goal kicks · Serbia total

Saves · match total

Shots · Netherlands total

Shots · Netherlands total

Shots on target · Netherlands total

Shots on target · Serbia total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · Serbia total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

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