Millwall vs Swansea City — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Millwall

0–1

Swansea City

Yesterday··Matchday 10·Swansea City won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 13Corners1
  • 3Cards2
  • 8Shots14
  • 4Shots on target2
  • 10Fouls11
  • 27Throw-ins16
  • 3Offsides2
  • 7Goal kicks7
  • 1Saves3
  • 9Tackles23
  • 6Interceptions8
  • 5Dribbles5
OddsOddsStatsStatsPredictionsPicksRefereeRefereeCoachCoach
3 Free1 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match
MillwallvSwansea CityChampionship3 won / 1 lost · +2.45u · 4 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →VIPLost
under 9.52.15 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +10.5%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 41 settled picks and +10.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.52.15Model chance51.4%EV+10.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:29

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate17.1%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate39.0%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate51.4%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+9.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate81.9%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.52.00Model chance51.4%EV+2.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 00:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate17.1%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate39.0%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.4%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate81.9%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.52.00Model chance51.4%EV+2.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate39.0%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.4%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate81.9%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.52.00Model chance51.4%EV+2.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 06:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate39.0%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.4%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate81.9%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 9.52.10Model chance51.4%EV+7.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:24

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate51.4%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate81.9%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.52.10Model chance51.4%EV+7.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5odds7.70Closing chance estimate9.5%Closing EV estimate−27.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds5.15Closing chance estimate17.1%Closing EV estimate−12.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate39.0%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate51.4%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+9.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate81.9%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:45: under 9.5 at 2.15 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:07. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Swansea City total

Open match →FreeWon
under 4.52.00 at Bet365+1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +2.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 4.52.00Model chance51.5%EV+2.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+9.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.51.85Model chance54.4%EV+0.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 00:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.65Closing chance estimate23.6%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate39.2%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate68.7%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate79.9%Closing EV estimate−5.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 4.51.90Model chance52.8%EV+0.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:29

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate39.2%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate68.7%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate79.9%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 4.51.85Model chance54.4%EV+0.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.95Closing chance estimate23.6%Closing EV estimate+17.0%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate39.2%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate68.7%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate79.9%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 4.51.97Model chance54.4%EV+7.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds9.00Closing chance estimate10.7%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate23.6%Closing EV estimate+11.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate39.2%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.97Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate68.7%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate79.9%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate88.0%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.51.80Model chance54.9%EV-1.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate39.2%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate68.7%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.51.95Model chance54.9%EV+7.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate23.6%Closing EV estimate+30.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate39.2%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate68.7%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 04:32: under 4.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Millwall total

Open match →FreeWon
under 13.52.00 at Bet365+1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +16.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 13.52.00Model chance58.1%EV+16.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 12:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate58.8%Closing EV estimate+17.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 13.51.65Model chance58.8%EV-3.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate40.9%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate58.8%Closing EV estimate−3.1%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 13.51.90Model chance58.8%EV+11.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 09:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate23.8%Closing EV estimate−13.3%margin10.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate32.0%Closing EV estimate+15.3%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds2.82Closing chance estimate40.9%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds2.27Closing chance estimate50.0%Closing EV estimate+13.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate58.8%Closing EV estimate+11.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate67.0%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 16.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 16:18: under 13.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Swansea City total

Open match →FreeWon
under 19.52.45 at Betlive+1.45u on one unit

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +23.1%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 55 settled picks and +3.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 19.52.45Model chance50.3%EV+23.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 02:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate+23.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 20odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailable
    • under 20.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+17.8%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 21odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.7%Model unavailable
    • under 21.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate64.2%Closing EV estimate+12.3%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 22odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailable
    • under 22.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate70.4%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 23odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailable
    • under 23.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate75.9%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 19.52.20Model chance50.4%EV+10.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate+10.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 20.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 21.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate64.2%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: under 19.5 at 2.45 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:29. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return+61.3%ROI · 4 units staked
Profit+2.45units
W / L3 / 1picks
Avg odds2.15settled picks
Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionshipHome teamMillwallAway teamSwansea CityRefereeEdward Duckworth

Previous meetings