Elche vs Celta Vigo — LaLiga

LaLigaLaLiga 26/27

Elche

0–0

Celta Vigo

Sun 11 Oct··Matchday 8·Estadio Martínez Valero, Elche·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 5Corners2
  • 1Cards3
  • 13Shots7
  • 2Shots on target0
  • 19Fouls21
  • 8Throw-ins9
  • 0Offsides3
  • 9Goal kicks10
  • 0Saves2
  • 12Tackles18
  • 6Interceptions7
  • 6Dribbles3
OddsOddsStatsStatsPredictionsPicksRefereeRefereeCoachCoach
0Free available0VIP available8Recorded Free3Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match
ElchevCelta VigoLaLiga1 won / 10 lost · −9.12u · 11 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.32
Closing odds2.32
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
55.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.82
Expected value at recommendation
+28.0%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +28.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
    At recommendation2.32
    Closing odds2.32
    Unchanged
    Model chance55.2%EV+28.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 22:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds17.00Closing chance estimate3.6%Closing EV estimate−39.1%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds7.10Closing chance estimate15.3%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate+28.2%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.32Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+30.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate74.4%Closing EV estimate+23.5%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate86.8%Closing EV estimate+14.6%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate97.5%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate99.1%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.2%EV+29.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 22:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate15.3%Closing EV estimate−17.4%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate+29.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+29.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate74.4%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate86.8%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.2%EV+26.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 22:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate15.3%Closing EV estimate−17.4%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate+28.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+26.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate74.4%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate86.8%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.2%EV+29.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+29.3%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.2%EV+29.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 22:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate15.3%Closing EV estimate−17.4%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate+29.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+29.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate74.4%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate86.8%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.2%EV+29.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.33Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate+50.1%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+29.3%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate74.4%Closing EV estimate+14.0%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: under 3.5 at 2.32 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · Celta Vigo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit
Crocobetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds2.20
Odds down−0.25
Model chance at recommendation
51.3%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.95
Expected value at recommendation
+25.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +25.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.15
    Closing odds2.15
    Unchanged
    Model chance60.1%EV+29.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate60.7%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+17.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.45
    Closing odds2.20
    Odds down−0.25
    Model chance51.3%EV+25.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 01:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate60.7%Closing EV estimate+33.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+17.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate95.0%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.48
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance51.3%EV+27.3%
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.65
    Closing odds2.24
    Odds down−0.41
    Model chance51.3%EV+36.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.24Closing chance estimate60.7%Closing EV estimate+36.1%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+13.7%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate95.0%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.32
    Closing odds2.37
    Odds up+0.05
    Model chance51.3%EV+19.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 22:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate26.0%Closing EV estimate+50.7%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds2.37Closing chance estimate60.7%Closing EV estimate+44.0%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+22.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate95.0%Closing EV estimate+14.0%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 08:27: under 1.5 at 2.45 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 24.5Actual: 40−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds2.10
Odds up+0.08
Model chance at recommendation
56.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.79
Expected value at recommendation
+13.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +13.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.38
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.4%EV+36.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 23.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate+39.2%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.38Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+36.7%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+36.0%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+32.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27.5odds1.62Closing chance estimate77.5%Closing EV estimate+25.5%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 28.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate+19.8%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 29.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 24.5
    At recommendation2.02
    Closing odds2.10
    Odds up+0.08
    Model chance56.1%EV+13.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 24.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+20.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5odds1.62Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.4%EV+32.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 23.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate+36.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+32.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+29.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+25.1%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate77.5%Closing EV estimate+20.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 28.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate+15.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 29.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate+12.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.4%EV+40.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 01:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 23.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate49.7%Closing EV estimate+41.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate57.4%Closing EV estimate+40.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+29.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+25.1%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate77.5%Closing EV estimate+24.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 28.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate+15.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 29.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate+12.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 18:36: under 24.5 at 2.02 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Celta Vigo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 21−1.00u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.43
Closing odds2.43
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
67.3%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.49
Expected value at recommendation
+63.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 67.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +63.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate76.5%Closing EV estimate+41.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+30.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate89.9%Closing EV estimate+22.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 01:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate55.4%Closing EV estimate+82.8%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate76.5%Closing EV estimate+49.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+38.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate89.9%Closing EV estimate+25.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
    At recommendation2.43
    Closing odds2.43
    Unchanged
    Model chance67.3%EV+63.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.43Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate76.5%Closing EV estimate+53.0%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate84.2%Closing EV estimate+40.6%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 00:06: under 11.5 at 2.43 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 01:03. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Elche total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 9+0.88u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds1.88
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
58.7%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.71
Expected value at recommendation
+10.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +10.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 7.5
    At recommendation1.88
    Closing odds1.88
    Unchanged
    Model chance58.7%EV+10.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.51Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+9.7%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds2.46Closing chance estimate45.5%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.4%EV+6.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate45.5%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.4%EV+9.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 01:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate45.5%Closing EV estimate+11.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.02
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.4%EV+20.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+20.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: over 7.5 at 1.88 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 05:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Celta Vigo total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 6.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.35
Closing odds2.43
Odds up+0.08
Model chance at recommendation
58.7%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.71
Expected value at recommendation
+38.0%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +38.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 6.5
    At recommendation2.30
    Closing odds2.40
    Odds up+0.10
    Model chance60.9%EV+40.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+44.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+37.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate+25.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 6.5
    At recommendation2.45
    Closing odds2.45
    Unchanged
    Model chance60.6%EV+48.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 01:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+47.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+37.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate+26.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.5
    At recommendation2.35
    Closing odds2.43
    Odds up+0.08
    Model chance58.7%EV+38.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.43Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+46.3%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+39.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate+26.7%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 10:42: under 6.5 at 2.35 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 0−1.00u on one unit
BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.02
Odds up+0.02
Model chance at recommendation
57.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.75
Expected value at recommendation
+14.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +14.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.02
    Odds up+0.02
    Model chance57.2%EV+14.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+21.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • PinnacleAt recommendationover 2.5
    At recommendation2.09
    Closing odds2.01
    Odds down−0.08
    Model chance57.2%EV+19.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds2.01Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+20.9%margin2.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.91
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.2%EV+14.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+14.8%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate+28.5%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds6.50Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate+32.6%margin5.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate9.6%Closing EV estimate+24.4%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds26.00Closing chance estimate4.0%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin2.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.04
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.2%EV+22.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:10

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin0.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.04Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+22.7%margin0.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate+38.0%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds8.00Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate+63.2%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds20.00Closing chance estimate9.6%Closing EV estimate+91.4%margin1.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds50.00Closing chance estimate4.0%Closing EV estimate+97.5%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.2%EV+11.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate+11.5%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds5.20Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds8.00Closing chance estimate9.6%Closing EV estimate−23.4%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.2%EV+11.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate+11.5%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds5.20Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds8.00Closing chance estimate9.6%Closing EV estimate−23.4%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.2%EV+11.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate+15.3%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds8.20Closing chance estimate9.6%Closing EV estimate−21.5%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 122.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 123.5odds1.86Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.91
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.2%EV+14.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 17:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+14.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate+24.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate+42.8%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.92
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.2%EV+15.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate60.2%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate37.8%Closing EV estimate+22.8%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate9.6%Closing EV estimate+24.4%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds29.00Closing chance estimate4.0%Closing EV estimate+14.6%margin2.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds70.00Closing chance estimate1.5%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin1.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds125.00Closing chance estimate0.5%Closing EV estimate−39.9%margin—Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:51: over 2.5 at 2.00 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds1.42
Odds down−0.73
Model chance at recommendation
63.4%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.58
Expected value at recommendation
+36.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 63.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +36.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
    At recommendation2.15
    Closing odds1.42
    Odds down−0.73
    Model chance63.4%EV+36.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate+19.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate−9.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate−19.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.8%EV-7.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate−7.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate−7.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate−19.7%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate17.1%Closing EV estimate−23.1%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.48
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.8%EV-5.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate−5.6%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.12Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin—Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.47
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.8%EV-6.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.47Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate−6.3%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate−9.2%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate−18.2%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate17.1%Closing EV estimate−23.1%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds7.30Closing chance estimate9.1%Closing EV estimate−33.3%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 02:03: over 3.5 at 2.15 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 02:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 24.5Actual: 20−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds1.95
Odds down−0.07
Model chance at recommendation
50.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
2.00
Expected value at recommendation
+1.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +1.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 24.5
    At recommendation2.02
    Closing odds1.95
    Odds down−0.07
    Model chance50.2%EV+1.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 21.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.72Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.83
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.9%EV+0.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 14:35

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.9%EV-1.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 21.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate34.1%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.9%EV-9.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 21.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate−10.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate−10.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate−9.5%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate−11.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate−14.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate34.1%Closing EV estimate−16.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate28.1%Closing EV estimate−17.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.9%EV+4.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 21.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+2.5%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate34.1%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.9%EV+4.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 20.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 21.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds2.22Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate34.1%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate28.1%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 12:47: over 24.5 at 2.02 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 06:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Celta Vigo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 13.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit
Crocobetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.65
Closing odds2.65
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
57.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.76
Expected value at recommendation
+51.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +51.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 13.5
    At recommendation2.65
    Closing odds2.65
    Unchanged
    Model chance57.1%EV+51.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 01:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate90.5%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+23.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+31.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+44.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 13.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+23.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+35.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+44.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 13.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate94.5%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate90.5%Closing EV estimate+29.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+40.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+52.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+65.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate49.6%Closing EV estimate+83.5%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: over 13.5 at 2.65 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 05:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 8.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
55.3%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.81
Expected value at recommendation
+16.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.81. Expected value at recommendation: +16.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 8.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds2.10
    Unchanged
    Model chance55.3%EV+16.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:26

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.8%EV+12.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate80.9%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate70.1%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+12.6%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.8%EV+21.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 01:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate89.3%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.9%Closing EV estimate+9.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate70.1%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+28.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.8%EV+21.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate89.3%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate80.9%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate70.1%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+21.8%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+26.8%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate23.4%Closing EV estimate+28.7%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.02
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.8%EV+16.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate94.9%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate89.3%Closing EV estimate+0.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate80.9%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate70.1%Closing EV estimate+10.8%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+16.7%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.72Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+22.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+21.8%margin10.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate23.4%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate15.5%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 06:19: over 8.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return−82.9%ROI · 11 units staked
Profit−9.12units
W / L1 / 10picks
Avg odds2.21settled picks
Recorded picks111 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLaLigaHome teamElcheAway teamCelta VigoRefereeJavier Alberola Rojas

Previous meetings

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