Derby County vs Wrexham 1-1 — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Derby County

1–1

Wrexham

Sat 10 Oct·08:00·Matchday 9·Pride Park Stadium·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

1Corners8
3Cards2
10Shots13
4Shots on target3
10Fouls6
27Throw-ins28
1Offsides3
5Goal kicks8
2Saves3
21Tackles15
23Interceptions6
6Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

3 Free1 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match

08:00Derby CountyvWrexhamChampionship0 won / 4 lost · −4.00u · 4 picks

Cards · Wrexham total

Open match →FreeLost

under 1.52.05 at Kambi−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +12.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.52.05Model chance53.8%EV+10.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 02:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate53.5%Closing EV estimate+9.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:01
- under 2odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:01
- under 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 02:01
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.52.10Model chance54.7%EV+14.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 06:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate53.5%Closing EV estimate+12.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:35
- under 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 06:03
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.52.05Model chance54.7%EV+12.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds2.07Closing chance estimate53.5%Closing EV estimate+10.8%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:37
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 1.52.15Model chance54.7%EV+17.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:38
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−78.3%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:07
- under 1.5odds2.17Closing chance estimate53.5%Closing EV estimate+16.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:38

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 06:22: under 1.5 at 2.05 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 07:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Wrexham total

Open match →FreeLost

under 5.51.85 at Betlive−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +7.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.51.85Model chance57.9%EV+7.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate26.6%Closing EV estimate−14.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:01
- under 4.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−8.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:01
- under 5.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:01
- under 6.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:01
- under 7.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate85.7%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:01
Bet365Closing estimateunder 5.51.73Model chance60.9%EV+5.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:25
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.51.55Model chance60.9%EV-5.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:35
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:35
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:35
- under 6.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:35
KambiClosing estimateunder 5.51.62Model chance60.9%EV-1.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate26.6%Closing EV estimate−20.1%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:37
- under 4.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−8.1%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:37
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:37
- under 6.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:37
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 5.51.55Model chance60.9%EV-5.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate26.6%Closing EV estimate−12.1%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 4.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate−8.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 6.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- under 7.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate85.7%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 5.51.73Model chance60.9%EV+5.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds7.50Closing chance estimate12.8%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- under 3.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate26.6%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- under 4.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.51.73Model chance60.9%EV+5.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:36
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate12.8%Closing EV estimate−26.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:36
- under 3.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate26.6%Closing EV estimate−9.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:36
- under 4.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:36
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:36
- under 6.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+6.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:36
- under 7.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate85.7%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:36
- under 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate92.4%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:36

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 00:06: under 5.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 2.52.05 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +12.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.52.05Model chance54.7%EV+12.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 03:45
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate94.1%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin4.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:45
- over 1.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:45
- over 2.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+12.6%margin5.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:45
- over 3.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate31.3%Closing EV estimate+17.4%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:45
- over 4.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:45
- over 5.5odds15.00Closing chance estimate6.7%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 03:45
Betfair ExchangeAt recommendationover 2.52.04Model chance54.7%EV+11.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate94.1%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 0.75odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.9%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 1odds1.09Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 1.25odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 1.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin0.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 1.75odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.4%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 2odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 2.25odds1.71Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 2.5odds1.96Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin0.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 2.75odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.9%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 3odds2.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.7%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 3.25odds3.03Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.5%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 3.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate31.3%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin0.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 3.75odds4.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.2%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 4odds6.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 4.25odds6.69Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.2%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 4.5odds7.20Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin0.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 4.75odds9.86Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 5odds16.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 5.25odds16.94Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 5.5odds17.50Closing chance estimate6.7%Closing EV estimate+17.5%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 5.75odds25.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.9%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 6odds49.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 6.25odds50.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 6.5odds50.00Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate+26.8%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
BetliveAt recommendationover 2.51.90Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate94.1%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 11:02
- over 1odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
- over 1.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
- over 2odds1.39Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
- over 2.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
- over 3odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
- over 3.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate31.3%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
- over 4odds4.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
- over 4.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate−23.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
- over 5odds7.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
- over 5.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate6.7%Closing EV estimate−53.0%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:31
CrocobetAt recommendationover 2.51.90Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate94.1%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 11:03
- over 1odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
- over 1.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
- over 2odds1.39Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
- over 2.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
- over 3odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
- over 3.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate31.3%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
- over 4odds4.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
- over 4.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate−23.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
- over 5odds7.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
- over 5.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate6.7%Closing EV estimate−53.0%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:33
LiderbetAt recommendationover 2.51.90Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate94.1%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 11:04
- over 1odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 1.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 2odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.4%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 2.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 3odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 3.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate31.3%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 4odds4.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 4.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate−23.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 5odds6.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 5.5odds7.10Closing chance estimate6.7%Closing EV estimate−52.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
- over 118.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 8 Oct, 11:04
- over 120.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 03:37
- over 125.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:34
PinnacleAt recommendationover 2.52.04Model chance54.7%EV+11.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.25odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.7%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 2.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin3.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 2.75odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.51.85Model chance53.6%EV-0.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate94.1%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 1.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 3.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate31.3%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 4.5odds6.50Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
- over 5.5odds11.00Closing chance estimate6.7%Closing EV estimate−26.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:55
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.51.92Model chance53.6%EV+2.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate94.1%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin4.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 11:06
- over 1.25odds1.19Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 02:39
- over 1.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 1.75odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 2odds1.43Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.4%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 2.25odds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.0%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin4.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 2.75odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 3odds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.3%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 3.25odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailableCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 3.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate31.3%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 4.5odds6.30Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 5.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate6.7%Closing EV estimate−12.7%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 6.5odds29.00Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−26.5%margin2.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:42: over 2.5 at 2.05 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 11:26. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPLost

over 24.51.90 at Liderbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +17.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 24.51.90Model chance61.8%EV+17.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 05:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 21.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.1%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:33
- over 22.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate74.5%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:33
- over 23.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate+16.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:33
- over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate61.8%Closing EV estimate+17.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:33
SuperbetClosing estimateover 24.51.58Model chance61.8%EV-2.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 07:36
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 20.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate84.9%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 05:38
- over 21.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate80.1%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 22.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate74.5%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 23.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.58Closing chance estimate61.8%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 25.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate54.9%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 26.5odds2.07Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 27.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate41.4%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 28.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate35.0%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36
- over 29.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate29.1%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 07:36

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 05:42: over 24.5 at 1.90 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−100.0%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit−4.00units

W / L0 / 4picks

Avg odds1.96settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionship Home teamDerby County Away teamWrexham RefereeMatt Donohue

Matches

Cards · Wrexham total

Corners · Wrexham total

Goals · match total

Shots · match total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings