Coritiba vs Botafogo 1-1 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Coritiba

1–1

HT 1–1

Botafogo

Mon 12 Oct·13:00·Matchday 30·Estádio Couto Pereira·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

8Corners7
5Cards2
13Shots18
3Shots on target5
16Fouls13
15Throw-ins30
2Offsides0
15Goal kicks5
4Saves3
11Tackles9
8Interceptions6
7Dribbles8

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

6 Free2 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00CoritibavBotafogoBrasileirão Série A1 won / 7 lost · −5.98u · 8 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 3.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2311 Oct, 16:17

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +19.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +19.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.23
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.7%EV+19.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.47
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.7%EV+32.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.1%EV+14.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.1%EV+4.2%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.1%EV+4.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.1%EV+14.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.1%EV+4.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 16:17: under 3.5 at 2.23 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · Coritiba total

Open match →FreeLost

under 1.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2211 Oct, 22:47

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +11.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +11.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.22
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.2%EV+11.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+3.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV-3.8%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+11.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 22:47: under 1.5 at 2.22 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 23.5Actual: 29−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9712 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 72.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.39
Expected value at recommendation: +41.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 72.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.39. Expected value at recommendation: +41.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 23.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance72.0%EV+41.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 23.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.5%EV+19.3%
15 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 23.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.5%EV+19.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 23.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.5%EV+25.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 00:06: under 23.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 01:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Botafogo total

Open match →FreeLost

under 12.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9212 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 73.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.37
Expected value at recommendation: +40.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 73.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.37. Expected value at recommendation: +40.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance73.2%EV+40.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.8%EV+38.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.8%EV+25.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.8%EV+28.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 00:06: under 12.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 01:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon

over 30.5Actual: 31+1.02u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0210 Oct, 01:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.94
Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 30.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.1%EV+5.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 30.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.8%EV+4.7%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 30.5
At recommendation2.17
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.8%EV+12.4%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 30.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.7%EV+1.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 30.5 at 2.02 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Coritiba total

Open match →VIPLost

over 14.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8710 Oct, 14:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.71
Expected value at recommendation: +9.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +9.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 14.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.8%EV+9.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.1%EV+0.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.1%EV-3.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 14:22: over 14.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 9.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1010 Oct, 01:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +18.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +18.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+18.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.2%EV+28.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+5.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+5.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.3%EV+37.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.3%EV+25.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 9.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Coritiba total

Open match →FreeLost

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9110 Oct, 01:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +8.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +8.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.0%EV+8.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.0%EV+6.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.7%EV+16.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.7%EV+7.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.7%EV+10.5%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.66
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.7%EV-0.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 4.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−74.8%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit−5.98units

W / L1 / 7picks

Avg odds2.03settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamCoritiba Away teamBotafogo RefereeMatheus Delgado Candançan

Matches

Cards · match total

Cards · Coritiba total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · Botafogo total

Shots · match total

Shots · Coritiba total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · Coritiba total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings