Coritiba vs Botafogo 1-1 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Coritiba

1–1

Botafogo

Mon 12 Oct·13:00·Matchday 30·Estádio Couto Pereira·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

8Corners7
5Cards2
13Shots18
3Shots on target5
16Fouls13
15Throw-ins30
2Offsides0
15Goal kicks5
4Saves3
11Tackles9
8Interceptions6
7Dribbles8

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

6 Free2 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00CoritibavBotafogoBrasileirão Série A1 won / 7 lost · −5.98u · 8 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 3.52.23 at BetMGM UK−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +19.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.52.23Model chance53.7%EV+19.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+14.6%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:25
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 3.52.47Model chance53.7%EV+32.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 10:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate2.9%Closing EV estimate−96.5%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:02
- under 1.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−35.0%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:02
- under 2.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate30.9%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- under 3.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- under 4.5odds1.56Closing chance estimate71.0%Closing EV estimate+10.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- under 5.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:03
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.52.20Model chance52.1%EV+14.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 09:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+14.6%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:55
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.52.00Model chance52.1%EV+4.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 07:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−29.8%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 2.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate30.9%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 4odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.3%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- under 4.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate71.0%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- under 5.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 6.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:11
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.52.00Model chance52.1%EV+4.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 07:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds5.30Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−31.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 2.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate30.9%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 4.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate71.0%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 6.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.52.20Model chance52.1%EV+14.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+14.6%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:03
- under 4.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate71.0%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:03
- under 5.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.52.00Model chance52.1%EV+4.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 07:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−29.8%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 2.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate30.9%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.1%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 4.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate71.0%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin15.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 5.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate84.6%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:01
- under 6.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 16:17: under 3.5 at 2.23 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · Coritiba total

Open match →FreeLost

under 1.52.22 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +11.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.52.22Model chance50.2%EV+11.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 10:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate15.7%Closing EV estimate−26.1%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- under 1.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- under 2.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+2.5%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
BetliveClosing estimateunder 1.52.10Model chance49.3%EV+3.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- under 2odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.7%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- under 2.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 1.51.95Model chance49.3%EV-3.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 08:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 08:31
- under 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 08:31
KambiClosing estimateunder 1.52.25Model chance49.3%EV+11.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate+11.0%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- under 2.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+13.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 22:47: under 1.5 at 2.22 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 23.51.97 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 72.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.39. Expected value at recommendation: +41.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 23.51.97Model chance72.0%EV+41.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 22.5odds2.32Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate+32.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:02
- under 23.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+38.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:32
- under 24.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate71.3%Closing EV estimate+31.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:32
- under 25.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate+25.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:32
BetliveClosing estimateunder 23.51.85Model chance64.5%EV+19.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 05:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 21.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate49.3%Closing EV estimate+33.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 22odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.1%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 22.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate+28.5%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 23odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.3%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 23.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 24odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.3%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 24.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate71.3%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 25odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 25.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 26odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 26.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 27odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.9%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 27.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate+21.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- under 28odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.6%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- under 28.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate90.2%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 23.51.85Model chance64.5%EV+19.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 05:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 22.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate+25.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- under 23.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- under 24.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate71.3%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- under 25.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate+39.1%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- under 26.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate+36.0%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 23.51.95Model chance64.5%EV+25.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 09:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 22.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate+31.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 23.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+25.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 24.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate71.3%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 25.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate77.3%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 26.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 27.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate+25.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:02
- under 28.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate90.2%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 00:06: under 23.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 01:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Botafogo total

Open match →FreeLost

under 12.51.92 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 73.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.37. Expected value at recommendation: +40.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.51.92Model chance73.2%EV+40.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 11:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 11.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+34.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:32
- under 12.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate67.8%Closing EV estimate+33.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 11:32
- under 13.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+22.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:02
BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.52.05Model chance67.8%EV+38.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 05:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate67.8%Closing EV estimate+38.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 13odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.4%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 13.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+26.7%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 14odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.3%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 14.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate84.0%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:30
- under 15odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- under 15.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+22.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.51.85Model chance67.8%EV+25.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 05:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 11.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+34.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate67.8%Closing EV estimate+25.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- under 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- under 14.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate84.0%Closing EV estimate+34.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.51.90Model chance67.8%EV+28.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 09:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate67.8%Closing EV estimate+28.7%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate84.0%Closing EV estimate+30.2%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 00:06: under 12.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 01:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon

over 30.52.02 at Kambi+1.02u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 30.51.91Model chance55.1%EV+5.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 12:40
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 30.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 12:40
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 30.52.02Model chance51.8%EV+4.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 26.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:33
- over 27.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate63.5%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- over 29.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- over 30.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- over 31.5odds2.12Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- over 32.5odds2.43Closing chance estimate38.1%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- over 33.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−9.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
SuperbetAt recommendationover 30.52.17Model chance51.8%EV+12.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 11:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 25.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate80.3%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 01:03
- over 26.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:32
- over 27.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:32
- over 28.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate63.5%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:32
- over 29.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 11:02
- over 30.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 31.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 32.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate38.1%Closing EV estimate−6.7%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 33.5odds2.92Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 11:02
- over 34.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate26.9%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
CrocobetClosing estimateover 30.52.00Model chance50.7%EV+1.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 03:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 28.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate63.5%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- over 29.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate57.1%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- over 30.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 30.5 at 2.02 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Coritiba total

Open match →VIPLost

over 14.51.87 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +9.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 14.51.87Model chance58.8%EV+9.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 10:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate78.4%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 06:03
- over 12.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate71.4%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 06:33
- over 13.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 14.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate56.1%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 15.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate48.3%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 16.5odds2.27Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 17.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate33.5%Closing EV estimate−9.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 18.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate27.0%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
Bet365Closing estimateover 14.51.80Model chance56.1%EV+0.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate56.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:20
KambiClosing estimateover 14.51.73Model chance56.1%EV-3.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 13.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:33
- over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate56.1%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- over 15.5odds1.98Closing chance estimate48.3%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- over 16.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate40.7%Closing EV estimate−6.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 14:22: over 14.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 9.52.10 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +18.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 9.52.10Model chance56.4%EV+18.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+28.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
CrocobetAt recommendationover 9.52.10Model chance61.2%EV+28.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 05:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- over 8.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- over 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+22.6%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
KambiAt recommendationover 9.51.87Model chance56.4%EV+5.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate90.2%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 07:03
- over 7.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:33
- over 8.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin10.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:33
- over 9.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- over 10.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- over 11.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- over 12.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate26.8%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
SuperbetAt recommendationover 9.51.87Model chance56.4%EV+5.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 11:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 06:33
- over 6.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate90.2%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 11:02
- over 8.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 11:02
- over 9.5odds1.68Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 11:02
- over 10.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 11.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 12.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate26.8%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 13.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate18.3%Closing EV estimate−12.3%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.52.25Model chance61.3%EV+37.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.9%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 8odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 8.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+27.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 9odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+37.9%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 10odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 10.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate+44.6%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.52.05Model chance61.3%EV+25.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 09:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate90.2%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:02
- over 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+10.1%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- over 8.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate61.3%Closing EV estimate+25.7%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- over 10.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate+32.4%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- over 11.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate+43.3%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 9.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Coritiba total

Open match →FreeLost

over 4.51.91 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +8.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.51.91Model chance57.0%EV+8.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+14.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
KambiAt recommendationover 4.51.87Model chance57.0%EV+6.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate88.7%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:03
- over 3.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- over 4.5odds1.79Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- over 5.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:33
- over 6.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate28.1%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.51.95Model chance59.7%EV+16.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate+10.1%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 4odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+16.5%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- over 5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.51.80Model chance59.7%EV+7.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 05:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
- over 5.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate+11.6%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:31
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.51.85Model chance59.7%EV+10.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 09:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.51.66Model chance59.7%EV-0.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 10:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate88.7%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 3.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimate59.7%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 5.5odds2.27Closing chance estimate42.9%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 6.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate28.1%Closing EV estimate−10.0%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- over 7.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate16.8%Closing EV estimate−20.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 4.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−74.8%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit−5.98units

W / L1 / 7picks

Avg odds2.03settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamCoritiba Away teamBotafogo RefereeMatheus Delgado Candançan

Matches

Cards · match total

Cards · Coritiba total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · Botafogo total

Shots · match total

Shots · Coritiba total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · Coritiba total

This match

Around this match

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