Celta Vigo vs Juventus 1-2 — UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League 26/27

Celta Vigo

1–2

Juventus

Thu 15 Oct·13:00·Matchday 2·Municipal de Balaidos·Juventus won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

2Corners7
2Cards2
9Shots22
2Shots on target6
12Fouls19
17Throw-ins19
5Goal kicks7
4Saves1
19Tackles19
13Interceptions15
6Dribbles9

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Board

Matches

1 match

13:00Celta VigovJuventusUEFA Europa League2 won / 3 lost · −1.09u · 7 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 8.5Actual: 9−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1012 Oct, 18:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.2%EV+5.4%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV-0.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV-3.0%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV-3.0%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV-3.0%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV+1.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:42: under 8.5 at 2.10 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Celta Vigo total

Open match →VIPLost

over 4.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2013 Oct, 13:25

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +10.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +10.2%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 37 settled picksand +21.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.1%EV+10.2%
SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.1%EV+5.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.23
No saved recommendation
Model chance39.4%EV-12.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance39.4%EV-15.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance39.4%EV-23.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.23
No saved recommendation
Model chance39.4%EV-12.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance39.4%EV-15.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance39.4%EV-11.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 13:25: over 4.5 at 2.20 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 19:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreeAwaiting result

under 2.5

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation3.4514 Oct, 10:11

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +91.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +91.8%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +3.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+55.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation3.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.6%EV+91.8%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.1%EV+57.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 10:11: under 2.5 at 3.45 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 15:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · Celta Vigo total

Open match →VIPAwaiting result

under 1.5

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3014 Oct, 10:11

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 69.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.44
Expected value at recommendation: +60.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 69.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.44. Expected value at recommendation: +60.7%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 72 settled picksand +25.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.35
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance70.1%EV+64.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance70.1%EV+71.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance69.9%EV+60.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 10:11: under 1.5 at 2.30 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Celta Vigo total

Open match →FreeWon

under 10.5Actual: 9+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9112 Oct, 18:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.82
Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.1%EV+5.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV-5.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV+9.8%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV+9.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.76
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV-3.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV+23.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV+13.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:42: under 10.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Juventus total

Open match →FreeLost

under 12.5Actual: 22−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9413 Oct, 16:48

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +17.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +17.7%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 30 settled picksand +9.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation1.94
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.7%EV+17.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.1%EV-0.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.1%EV+22.7%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.1%EV+14.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.1%EV+28.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.1%EV+15.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 16:48: under 12.5 at 1.94 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 12:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →VIPWon

under 8.5Actual: 8+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 18:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +9.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +9.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.9%EV+9.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV+15.8%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV+15.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.72
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV+7.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV+37.7%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.6%EV+25.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:42: under 8.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 16:11. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−21.8%ROI · 5 units staked

Profit−1.09units

W / L2 / 3picks

Avg odds2.03settled picks

Recorded picks72 awaiting result

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Europa League Home teamCelta Vigo Away teamJuventus Refereevan der Eijk, Sander