Borussia M'gladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim 1-2

BundesligaBundesliga 26/27

Borussia M'gladbach

1–2

HT 0–1

TSG Hoffenheim

Sun 18 Oct·09:30·Matchday 6·Borussia-Park·TSG Hoffenheim won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

3Corners6
3Cards2
9Shots14
3Shots on target8
13Fouls13
25Throw-ins21
3Offsides2
6Goal kicks5
6Saves2
20Tackles15
10Interceptions7
5Dribbles12

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

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Matches

1 match

09:30Borussia M'gladbachvTSG HoffenheimBundesliga3 won / 5 lost · −2.20u · 8 picks

Corners · Borussia M'gladbach total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9114 Oct, 18:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +9.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +9.6%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 91 settled picksand +2.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.4%EV+9.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.76
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 18:24: over 4.5 at 1.91 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 00:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Borussia M'gladbach total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 3+0.85u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8518 Oct, 03:38

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.82
Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.1%EV+1.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 03:38: under 4.5 at 1.85 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 05:54. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · TSG Hoffenheim total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 6+1.10u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1012 Oct, 18:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +15.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +15.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.8%EV+15.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.8%EV+5.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:42: over 5.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 24.5Actual: 26−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0018 Oct, 07:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 61.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.62
Expected value at recommendation: +23.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 61.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +23.8%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 275 settled picksand +5.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 24.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.9%EV+23.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 24.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 24.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 24.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 07:42: under 24.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 09:20. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · TSG Hoffenheim total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2518 Oct, 06:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.92
Expected value at recommendation: +17.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 52.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +17.4%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 283 settled picksand +10.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.2%EV+17.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 06:09: under 12.5 at 2.25 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 07:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · TSG Hoffenheim total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 16.5Actual: 14−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0017 Oct, 09:46

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.77
Expected value at recommendation: +13.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +13.5%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 130 settled picksand +7.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 16.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.8%EV+13.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.27
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 09:46: over 16.5 at 2.00 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 02:08. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · TSG Hoffenheim total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 15.5Actual: 14+0.85u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8516 Oct, 09:59

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 36 settled picksand +17.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 15.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+0.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.76
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 09:59: under 15.5 at 1.85 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 09:46. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 37.5Actual: 46−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.4018 Oct, 04:11

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +28.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +28.9%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 452 settled picksand +1.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 37.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.7%EV+28.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 37.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.7%EV+28.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 04:11: under 37.5 at 2.40 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−27.5%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit−2.20units

W / L3 / 5picks

Avg odds2.04settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBundesliga Home teamBorussia M'gladbach Away teamTSG Hoffenheim RefereeSören Storks

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Borussia M'gladbach total

Corners · Borussia M'gladbach total

Corners · TSG Hoffenheim total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · TSG Hoffenheim total

Shots · TSG Hoffenheim total

Shots · TSG Hoffenheim total

Throw-ins · match total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

On this page

This category

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