Athletico vs Atlético Mineiro — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Thu 8 Oct··Matchday 29·Ligga Arena·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 10Corners3
  • 0Cards2
  • 31Shots15
  • 10Shots on target9
  • 13Fouls11
  • 18Throw-ins17
  • 0Offsides1
  • 6Goal kicks13
  • 7Saves8
  • 12Tackles9
  • 8Interceptions11
  • 3Dribbles4
12 Free3 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match
AthleticovAtlético MineiroBrasileirão Série A11 won / 4 lost · +6.86u · 15 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeWon
under 4.52.10 at Superbet+1.10u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +19.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.52.05Model chance56.2%EV+15.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate19.4%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.6%Model unavailable
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate56.5%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.4%Model unavailable
    • under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailable
    • under 6.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate85.3%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 4.52.10Model chance56.2%EV+18.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate19.4%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate56.5%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate85.3%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 4.51.98Model chance56.2%EV+11.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 13:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate56.5%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate85.3%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 4.52.05Model chance56.2%EV+15.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate19.4%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate56.5%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate85.3%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.52.10Model chance56.7%EV+19.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 14:05

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate1.3%Closing EV estimate−98.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate+21.0%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate56.5%Closing EV estimate+24.4%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate85.3%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.51.80Model chance56.5%EV+1.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate19.4%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate37.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate56.5%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: under 4.5 at 2.10 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 16:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · Atlético Mineiro total

Open match →FreeWon
under 2.52.00 at Superbet+1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 62.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +23.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 2.51.85Model chance62.0%EV+14.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailable
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.3%Model unavailable
    • under 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 2.51.95Model chance62.0%EV+20.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate36.5%Closing EV estimate+24.0%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 2.51.96Model chance61.5%EV+20.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate36.5%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.93Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+22.3%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.52.00Model chance62.0%EV+23.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 14:05

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate11.5%Closing EV estimate−87.3%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate36.5%Closing EV estimate+36.8%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.07Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+31.2%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate82.7%Closing EV estimate+16.7%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: under 2.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost
under 10.51.95 at BetMGM UK−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.81. Expected value at recommendation: +8.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.51.95Model chance55.4%EV+8.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate−18.6%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 10.51.73Model chance50.9%EV-12.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate−12.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.51.65Model chance50.9%EV-16.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate10.9%Closing EV estimate−30.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate18.4%Closing EV estimate−24.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate28.1%Closing EV estimate−28.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate39.3%Closing EV estimate−21.5%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate−16.0%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−12.5%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate−10.0%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate80.3%Closing EV estimate−10.9%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate−9.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.51.65Model chance50.9%EV-16.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 7 Oct, 07:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate18.4%Closing EV estimate−37.3%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate28.1%Closing EV estimate−28.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate39.3%Closing EV estimate−21.5%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate−16.0%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−12.5%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate−10.0%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 10.51.60Model chance50.9%EV-18.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate10.9%Closing EV estimate−44.6%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate18.4%Closing EV estimate−34.6%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate28.1%Closing EV estimate−28.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.98Closing chance estimate39.3%Closing EV estimate−22.3%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate−18.6%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate−12.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate80.3%Closing EV estimate−10.1%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.51.65Model chance50.9%EV-16.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 02:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate28.1%Closing EV estimate−28.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate39.3%Closing EV estimate−21.5%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate−16.0%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate−10.0%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 10.51.67Model chance50.9%EV-15.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate39.3%Closing EV estimate−19.5%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate−15.2%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−15.3%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate−13.6%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.51.73Model chance50.9%EV-12.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds50.00Closing chance estimate0.2%Closing EV estimate−87.7%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds23.00Closing chance estimate0.9%Closing EV estimate−79.4%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−67.8%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds7.70Closing chance estimate5.6%Closing EV estimate−56.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds5.15Closing chance estimate10.9%Closing EV estimate−44.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate18.4%Closing EV estimate−32.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate28.1%Closing EV estimate−24.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate39.3%Closing EV estimate−17.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate50.9%Closing EV estimate−12.0%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−8.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate80.3%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate91.4%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 16.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate94.6%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 17.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate96.8%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 18.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.2%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin5.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: under 10.5 at 1.95 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 04:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Athletico total

Open match →FreeLost
under 5.52.00 at Bet365−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +3.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 5.52.00Model chance51.6%EV+3.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 5.52.05Model chance51.8%EV+6.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds4.65Closing chance estimate19.7%Closing EV estimate−8.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate66.5%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 5.52.00Model chance51.8%EV+3.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 11:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate19.7%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate66.5%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerAt recommendationunder 5.52.00Model chance52.7%EV+5.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds7.50Closing chance estimate8.8%Closing EV estimate−34.1%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate19.7%Closing EV estimate−11.2%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.51.85Model chance51.2%EV-5.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−9.9%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate66.5%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 5.51.72Model chance51.2%EV-12.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate19.7%Closing EV estimate−32.9%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.28Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−21.0%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.72Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate−12.0%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate66.5%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate87.7%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate93.4%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin10.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.52.00Model chance51.2%EV+2.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds50.00Closing chance estimate0.4%Closing EV estimate−78.4%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds16.00Closing chance estimate2.7%Closing EV estimate−56.7%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds7.20Closing chance estimate8.8%Closing EV estimate−36.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate19.7%Closing EV estimate−17.1%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate66.5%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate87.7%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate93.4%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate96.7%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: under 5.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Atlético Mineiro total

Open match →FreeLost
over 4.52.00 at Betlive−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 4.52.00Model chance50.3%EV+0.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate38.6%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 4.51.96Model chance54.2%EV+6.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+12.9%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.08Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate38.6%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds5.75Closing chance estimate14.0%Closing EV estimate−19.3%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationover 4.52.00Model chance50.3%EV+0.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 11:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate38.6%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate+14.4%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.52.12Model chance53.8%EV+14.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.2%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin5.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.59Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.12Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+18.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate38.6%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds6.50Closing chance estimate14.0%Closing EV estimate−8.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds9.80Closing chance estimate7.4%Closing EV estimate−27.1%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds16.00Closing chance estimate3.6%Closing EV estimate−41.6%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds24.00Closing chance estimate1.7%Closing EV estimate−60.1%margin4.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.51.85Model chance55.6%EV+3.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate38.6%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.52.20Model chance55.6%EV+22.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+22.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate38.6%Closing EV estimate+35.1%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 09:17: over 4.5 at 2.00 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 15:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreeWon
under 26.51.88 at Superbet+0.88u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +16.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 26.51.85Model chance62.7%EV+15.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 07:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 25.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate+22.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+14.1%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 26.51.88Model chance61.9%EV+16.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 25.5odds2.22Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate+23.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 26.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate+25.3%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 27.5odds1.76Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+21.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 28.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+17.7%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:48: under 26.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · Atlético Mineiro total

Open match →FreeWon
under 13.51.90 at Superbet+0.90u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 71.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.40. Expected value at recommendation: +35.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 13.51.80Model chance72.6%EV+30.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate63.0%Closing EV estimate+32.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate72.6%Closing EV estimate+30.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate80.6%Closing EV estimate+24.9%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 13.51.70Model chance72.6%EV+23.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate63.0%Closing EV estimate+29.2%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate72.6%Closing EV estimate+23.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate80.6%Closing EV estimate+20.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 13.51.90Model chance71.5%EV+35.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 14:05

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.27Closing chance estimate63.0%Closing EV estimate+43.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate72.6%Closing EV estimate+39.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.59Closing chance estimate80.6%Closing EV estimate+28.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 05:03: under 13.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon
over 2.52.05 at Pinnacle+1.05u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +7.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 2.52.05Model chance52.3%EV+7.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.25odds1.68Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.8%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.93Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin2.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.75odds2.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 2.52.05Model chance52.3%EV+7.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate94.7%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin4.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.25odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.75odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2odds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailable
    • over 2.25odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.1%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+6.8%margin4.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.75odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.0%Model unavailable
    • over 3odds2.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%Model unavailable
    • over 3.25odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.75odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds6.20Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate+7.8%margin4.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds28.00Closing chance estimate3.0%Closing EV estimate−15.1%margin2.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 2.51.85Model chance56.2%EV+4.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate94.7%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin4.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin4.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin5.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds26.00Closing chance estimate3.0%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin2.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.51.96Model chance56.2%EV+10.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate94.7%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 0.75odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailable
    • over 1odds1.09Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailable
    • over 1.25odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.0%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin0.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.75odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.9%Model unavailable
    • over 2odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.1%Model unavailable
    • over 2.25odds1.71Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.9%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.96Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin0.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.75odds2.23Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.0%Model unavailable
    • over 3odds2.71Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.0%Model unavailable
    • over 3.25odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate+18.4%margin0.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.75odds4.39Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.8%Model unavailable
    • over 4odds6.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.4%Model unavailable
    • over 4.25odds6.84Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.6%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds7.40Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate+28.7%margin1.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.75odds10.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.7%Model unavailable
    • over 5odds16.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.3%Model unavailable
    • over 5.25odds17.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds17.50Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate+35.6%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.75odds25.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6odds49.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.25odds50.07Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds50.00Closing chance estimate3.0%Closing EV estimate+51.6%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.75odds72.82Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.4%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 2.51.80Model chance56.2%EV+1.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate94.7%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate−16.5%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5odds6.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate−45.8%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.51.80Model chance56.2%EV+1.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate94.7%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate−16.5%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5odds6.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate−45.8%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.51.80Model chance56.2%EV+1.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:36

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate94.7%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4odds4.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate−16.5%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5odds6.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate−45.8%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 120.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 127.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.51.85Model chance56.2%EV+4.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate94.7%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate33.8%Closing EV estimate+11.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds6.50Closing chance estimate17.4%Closing EV estimate+13.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:42: over 2.5 at 2.05 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 16:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon
over 27.52.38 at Kambi+1.38u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +20.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 27.52.10Model chance50.7%EV+6.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 07:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 25.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+13.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate62.6%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate56.0%Closing EV estimate+17.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 27.52.38Model chance50.8%EV+20.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 24.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.72Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+18.8%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate62.6%Closing EV estimate+22.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.23Closing chance estimate56.0%Closing EV estimate+24.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate+35.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 27.52.00Model chance56.0%EV+11.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 21.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate85.1%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate80.4%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.74Closing chance estimate62.6%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate56.0%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate+13.2%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate42.6%Closing EV estimate+13.7%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate36.2%Closing EV estimate+14.1%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 27.51.85Model chance56.0%EV+3.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate69.1%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate62.6%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate56.0%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: over 27.5 at 2.38 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Athletico total

Open match →FreeWon
over 14.51.90 at Kambi+0.90u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +12.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 14.51.89Model chance57.4%EV+8.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 14.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate+8.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 14.51.90Model chance59.4%EV+12.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate+8.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate48.8%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 14.52.00Model chance58.8%EV+17.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate83.5%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate76.2%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate48.8%Closing EV estimate−8.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate39.5%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate30.9%Closing EV estimate−18.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate23.5%Closing EV estimate−24.9%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 14.51.83Model chance58.4%EV+7.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 14.51.70Model chance58.4%EV-0.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate48.8%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 14.51.75Model chance58.4%EV+2.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate76.2%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate58.4%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate48.8%Closing EV estimate+0.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate39.5%Closing EV estimate−7.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: over 14.5 at 1.90 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Atlético Mineiro total

Open match →VIPWon
over 11.52.00 at Kambi+1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +10.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 11.51.86Model chance55.3%EV+3.0%
  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 11.51.85Model chance56.1%EV+3.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate73.9%Closing EV estimate+14.6%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate64.1%Closing EV estimate+18.6%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+18.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 11.52.00Model chance55.1%EV+10.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate73.9%Closing EV estimate+23.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate64.1%Closing EV estimate+25.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 11.52.05Model chance56.1%EV+15.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+13.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate+18.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate73.9%Closing EV estimate+22.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate64.1%Closing EV estimate+26.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+28.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate43.2%Closing EV estimate+27.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+25.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 11.51.83Model chance64.1%EV+17.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate64.1%Closing EV estimate+17.5%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.51.75Model chance64.1%EV+12.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate73.9%Closing EV estimate+14.6%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate64.1%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+12.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate43.2%Closing EV estimate−11.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:03: over 11.5 at 2.00 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeWon
over 8.51.85 at Kambi+0.85u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +5.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 8.51.85Model chance63.4%EV+17.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 04:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate+16.7%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+17.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 8.51.85Model chance57.2%EV+5.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate85.1%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+11.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate+12.7%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.51.75Model chance63.4%EV+11.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate85.1%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+11.0%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+13.9%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 8.51.83Model chance63.4%EV+16.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.52.02Model chance63.4%EV+28.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate96.5%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate92.1%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate85.1%Closing EV estimate+11.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate+18.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+28.1%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.72Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+37.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate+37.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate27.2%Closing EV estimate+38.8%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate18.3%Closing EV estimate+28.2%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 08:22: over 8.5 at 1.85 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Athletico total

Open match →VIPWon
over 4.51.88 at Superbet+0.88u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +12.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 4.51.88Model chance59.6%EV+12.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate96.8%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate89.7%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.87Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+13.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate43.3%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate28.0%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds5.65Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate−7.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 4.51.80Model chance60.6%EV+9.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:20

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.51.75Model chance60.6%EV+6.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate43.3%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 4.51.63Model chance60.6%EV-1.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.63Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate43.3%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate28.0%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate−26.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.51.70Model chance60.6%EV+3.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate43.3%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 06:06: over 4.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Atlético Mineiro total

Open match →FreeWon
over 3.51.92 at Superbet+0.92u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +4.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 3.51.80Model chance56.7%EV+2.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate45.7%Closing EV estimate+23.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 3.51.92Model chance54.3%EV+4.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate93.6%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate+12.3%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+24.4%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate45.7%Closing EV estimate+27.9%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds6.70Closing chance estimate16.2%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 3.51.80Model chance64.8%EV+16.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:20

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 3.51.73Model chance64.8%EV+12.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 16:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+12.1%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate45.7%Closing EV estimate+16.5%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.51.75Model chance64.8%EV+13.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 06:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate45.7%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 05:03: over 3.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 16:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreeLost
over 37.52.10 at Liderbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 63.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.59. Expected value at recommendation: +32.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 37.52.10Model chance63.1%EV+32.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 8 Oct, 09:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 34.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 35.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+19.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 36.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate68.3%Closing EV estimate+26.3%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 37.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate63.6%Closing EV estimate+33.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 09:42: over 37.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 13:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return+45.7%ROI · 15 units staked
Profit+6.86units
W / L11 / 4picks
Avg odds1.99settled picks
Recorded picks151 matches

Around this match

Previous meetings