Aldosivi vs Sarmiento — Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Liga Profesional de FútbolPrimera LPF 2026

Aldosivi

1–3

HT 1–1

Sarmiento

Fri 9 Oct··Matchday 12·Estadio Jose Maria Minella·Sarmiento won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 6Corners1
  • 5Cards3
  • 14Shots14
  • 4Shots on target3
  • 17Fouls15
  • 19Throw-ins16
  • 1Offsides0
  • 9Goal kicks10
  • 0Saves3
  • 19Tackles16
  • 8Interceptions5
  • 2Dribbles4
8 Free1 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

Board

Matches

1 match
AldosivivSarmientoLiga Profesional de Fútbol3 won / 6 lost · −2.95u · 9 picks

Cards · Aldosivi total

Open match →FreeLost
under 2.51.87 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +7.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 2.51.80Model chance57.8%EV+4.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate78.0%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.51.87Model chance57.4%EV+7.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate9.1%Closing EV estimate−89.9%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.51.75Model chance57.2%EV+0.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 05:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailable
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailable
    • under 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate78.0%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 2.51.62Model chance57.2%EV-7.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 02:42: under 2.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · Sarmiento total

Open match →FreeLost
under 2.51.85 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +0.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • KambiAt recommendationunder 2.51.94Model chance54.1%EV+5.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate−8.9%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.51.85Model chance54.1%EV+0.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate6.3%Closing EV estimate−93.0%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.51.95Model chance47.7%EV-7.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 05:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailable
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate−7.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailable
    • under 3.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate69.9%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.52.00Model chance47.7%EV-4.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate23.7%Closing EV estimate−12.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate69.9%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 13:42: under 2.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:49. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Sarmiento total

Open match →FreeLost
over 3.51.89 at BetMGM UK−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +13.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 3.51.89Model chance60.0%EV+13.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 11:05

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.78Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 3.51.89Model chance60.0%EV+13.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate+3.4%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.79Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−40.3%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 3.51.73Model chance56.9%EV-1.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 10:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 3.51.47Model chance56.9%EV-16.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate−12.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.47Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−16.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−22.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−31.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate12.0%Closing EV estimate−39.8%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.51.45Model chance56.9%EV-17.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 00:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−17.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−24.2%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−33.6%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.51.45Model chance56.9%EV-17.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 11:07

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate−14.1%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−17.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−22.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−27.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate12.0%Closing EV estimate−33.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.51.72Model chance56.9%EV-2.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 06:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.1%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate90.6%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.72Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.37Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−10.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−22.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate12.0%Closing EV estimate−38.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 11:47: over 3.5 at 1.89 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreeLost
under 24.51.97 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.64. Expected value at recommendation: +20.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 24.51.80Model chance67.8%EV+22.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+23.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 24.51.97Model chance61.2%EV+20.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 24.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+30.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate+30.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:48: under 24.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 23:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Aldosivi total

Open match →FreeLost
under 12.51.95 at Superbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 67.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +31.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.51.80Model chance72.4%EV+30.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+39.4%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate72.4%Closing EV estimate+30.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate81.0%Closing EV estimate+25.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.51.95Model chance67.4%EV+31.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate72.4%Closing EV estimate+48.4%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:48: under 12.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · Aldosivi total

Open match →FreeLost
over 1.52.05 at Liderbet−1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +4.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.52.10Model chance51.1%EV+7.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate24.7%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.52.05Model chance50.8%EV+4.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 01:06: over 1.5 at 2.05 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:26. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon
over 25.52.00 at Bet365+1.00u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +4.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 25.52.00Model chance52.0%EV+4.1%
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 25.51.45Model chance54.7%EV-20.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 25.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate54.7%Closing EV estimate−20.7%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate41.1%Closing EV estimate−26.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−28.8%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−32.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 25.51.50Model chance54.7%EV-18.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate−11.5%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate68.2%Closing EV estimate−14.1%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate−16.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate54.7%Closing EV estimate−18.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.68Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate−19.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate41.1%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−23.6%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−26.4%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate23.6%Closing EV estimate−29.3%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 31.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate18.9%Closing EV estimate−32.9%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:48: over 25.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 11:11. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Aldosivi total

Open match →FreeWon
under 4.51.90 at Kambi+0.90u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +6.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.51.90Model chance56.1%EV+6.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 4.51.95Model chance55.0%EV+7.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds9.10Closing chance estimate7.0%Closing EV estimate−36.4%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate19.0%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate+6.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.5%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate91.3%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.51.83Model chance54.8%EV+0.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:50

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.51.70Model chance54.8%EV-6.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate−9.7%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.51.70Model chance54.8%EV-6.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate−15.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 11:47: under 4.5 at 1.90 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Sarmiento total

Open match →FreeWon
under 3.52.15 at Kambi+1.15u on one unit

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +16.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.52.15Model chance54.1%EV+16.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 3.51.97Model chance54.1%EV+6.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds14.00Closing chance estimate2.7%Closing EV estimate−62.3%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds5.75Closing chance estimate12.2%Closing EV estimate−29.8%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate−10.9%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.97Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate91.3%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.51.91Model chance49.8%EV-5.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:50

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.51.75Model chance49.8%EV-12.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−12.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.51.75Model chance49.8%EV-12.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−12.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 11:51: under 3.5 at 2.15 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 05:28. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return−32.8%ROI · 9 units staked
Profit−2.95units
W / L3 / 6picks
Avg odds1.96settled picks
Recorded picks91 matches

Around this match

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