Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

184Cells with a direction

83Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

267Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

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1–40 of 184 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
Betfair ExchangeLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 109 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	112	−27.91u-24.9% ROI	−3.78u-3.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 93 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	96	−26.99u-28.1% ROI	−1.64u-1.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Paddy PowerLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 89 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	92	−17.90u-19.5% ROI	−4.56u-5.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 87 reconstructed · 3 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	90	+48.00u53.3% ROI	−5.99u-6.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 84 reconstructed · 3 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	87	−37.67u-43.3% ROI	−1.19u-1.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 81 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	84	−49.62u-59.1% ROI	+6.15u7.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 76 reconstructed · 3 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	79	−35.58u-45.0% ROI	+5.64u7.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 78 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_cards · thestatsapi	79	+6.45u8.2% ROI	−28.49u-36.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 74 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_cards · thestatsapi	75	+11.80u15.7% ROI	−25.26u-33.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
PinnacleLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 72 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	75	−22.62u-30.2% ROI	+13.14u17.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 67 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	70	−50.50u-72.1% ROI	+4.48u6.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Paddy PowerLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 66 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	69	−47.50u-68.8% ROI	+1.40u2.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 50 reconstructed · 1 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	51	−25.15u-49.3% ROI	+8.53u16.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Corners · OverMatch total Evidence 48 reconstructed · 1 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	49	+15.78u32.2% ROI	−23.69u-48.3% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 44 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	44	−5.10u-11.6% ROI	−1.93u-4.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots · UnderAway team Evidence 40 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	40	−1.83u-4.6% ROI	−4.87u-12.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 39 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	39	+7.98u20.5% ROI	−14.91u-38.2% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 35 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	38	−28.06u-73.8% ROI	+5.05u13.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 37 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	37	+7.09u19.2% ROI	−12.94u-35.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
LiderbetLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 36 reconstructed · 1 recorded mt:16:512 · scraped	37	+2.20u5.9% ROI	−4.52u-12.2% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots · UnderHome team Evidence 33 reconstructed · 2 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	35	−1.83u-5.2% ROI	−3.45u-9.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 34 reconstructed · 1 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	35	+0.20u0.6% ROI	−5.35u-15.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots · OverMatch total Evidence 34 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_shots · thestatsapi	34	+1.41u4.2% ROI	−6.96u-20.5% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 34 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	34	+1.61u4.7% ROI	−7.52u-22.1% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 33 reconstructed · 1 recorded 133 · scraped	34	+4.09u12.0% ROI	−17.30u-50.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
LiderbetLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 33 reconstructed · 1 recorded mt:16:513 · scraped	34	+12.50u36.8% ROI	−7.95u-23.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
PinnacleLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 34 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	34	−1.54u-4.5% ROI	−0.58u-1.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 33 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	33	+6.95u21.1% ROI	−8.45u-25.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 33 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	33	−5.70u-17.3% ROI	−3.08u-9.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots · OverAway team Evidence 32 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	32	+5.58u17.4% ROI	−10.00u-31.2% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 31 reconstructed · 1 recorded 147 · scraped	32	−5.76u-18.0% ROI	−4.60u-14.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 32 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	32	−9.33u-29.2% ROI	+0.03u0.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 31 reconstructed · 1 recorded 13 · scraped	32	−8.88u-27.8% ROI	−3.96u-12.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots · UnderMatch total Evidence 29 reconstructed · 2 recorded match_shots · thestatsapi	31	−3.09u-10.0% ROI	−1.97u-6.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots · OverHome team Evidence 31 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots · thestatsapi	31	+2.56u8.3% ROI	−7.05u-22.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetliveLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 30 reconstructed · 1 recorded 113 · scraped	31	+6.07u19.6% ROI	−9.75u-31.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 31 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	31	+5.15u16.6% ROI	−9.28u-29.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 28 reconstructed · 2 recorded 1001159529 · scraped	30	−3.89u-13.0% ROI	−2.43u-8.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
LiderbetLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 29 reconstructed · 1 recorded mt:16:1108 · scraped	30	−7.21u-24.0% ROI	−3.87u-12.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
SuperbetLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Corners · OverMatch total Evidence 29 reconstructed · 1 recorded 704 · scraped	30	+4.53u15.1% ROI	−13.09u-43.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 23:11:43