Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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League Context

Recorded calls at their original odds. Qualification benchmarks remain separate.

Results include pushes and voids. Win rate is wins divided by all settled results. Return uses one unit per original bookmaker offer.

Click a column heading to reverse its order.

LeagueMatchesResultsWonWin rateReturn (u)

Brasileirão Série ABrazil2145125456%+79.49

Won 254 · Lost 197 · Void 0 · Push 0 · Pending 0

Full history					ROI
Full history	451	254	56%	+79.49	18%
last 30 %	135	65	48%	-7.376	-5%
last 14 days	451	254	56%	+79.49	18%
last 30 days	451	254	56%	+79.49	18%

Full history					ROI
Full history	205	120	59%	+39.118	19%
last 30 %	62	35	56%	+6.364	10%
last 14 days	205	120	59%	+39.118	19%
last 30 days	205	120	59%	+39.118	19%

Full history					ROI
Full history	110	64	58%	+23.16	21%
last 30 %	31	16	52%	+1.74	6%
last 14 days	110	64	58%	+23.16	21%
last 30 days	110	64	58%	+23.16	21%

Full history					ROI
Full history	114	63	55%	+21.099	19%
last 30 %	34	17	50%	+3.119	9%
last 14 days	114	63	55%	+21.099	19%
last 30 days	114	63	55%	+21.099	19%

Full history					ROI
Full history	296	152	51%	+16.631	6%
last 30 %	87	41	47%	-6.23	-7%
last 14 days	296	152	51%	+16.631	6%
last 30 days	296	152	51%	+16.631	6%

Full history					ROI
Full history	246	130	53%	+13.937	6%
last 30 %	74	50	68%	+26.407	36%
last 14 days	246	130	53%	+13.937	6%
last 30 days	246	130	53%	+13.937	6%

Full history					ROI
Full history	122	61	50%	+13.54	11%
last 30 %	44	24	55%	+10.52	24%
last 14 days	122	61	50%	+13.54	11%
last 30 days	122	61	50%	+13.54	11%

Full history					ROI
Full history	379	180	47%	+12.653	3%
last 30 %	114	65	57%	+24.247	21%
last 14 days	379	180	47%	+12.653	3%
last 30 days	379	180	47%	+12.653	3%

Full history					ROI
Full history	87	48	55%	+11.768	14%
last 30 %	23	9	39%	-4.531	-20%
last 14 days	87	48	55%	+11.768	14%
last 30 days	87	48	55%	+11.768	14%

Full history					ROI
Full history	230	118	51%	+11.377	5%
last 30 %	65	27	42%	-9.882	-15%
last 14 days	230	118	51%	+11.377	5%
last 30 days	230	118	51%	+11.377	5%

Full history					ROI
Full history	14	11	79%	+9.935	71%
last 30 %	4	4	100%	+5.38	134%
last 14 days	11	9	82%	+8.69	79%
last 30 days	14	11	79%	+9.935	71%

Full history					ROI
Full history	6	2	33%	-1.83	-31%
last 30 %	2	0	0%	-2	-100%
last 14 days	6	2	33%	-1.83	-31%
last 30 days	6	2	33%	-1.83	-31%

Full history					ROI
Full history	8	3	38%	-1.971	-25%
last 30 %	2	0	0%	-2	-100%
last 14 days	8	3	38%	-1.971	-25%
last 30 days	8	3	38%	-1.971	-25%

Full history					ROI
Full history	4	1	25%	-2.2	-55%
last 30 %	1	1	100%	+0.8	80%
last 14 days	4	1	25%	-2.2	-55%
last 30 days	4	1	25%	-2.2	-55%

Full history					ROI
Full history	44	18	41%	-7.96	-18%
last 30 %	13	6	46%	-0.61	-5%
last 14 days	44	18	41%	-7.96	-18%
last 30 days	44	18	41%	-7.96	-18%

Full history					ROI
Full history	185	96	52%	+8.457	5%
last 30 %	50	29	58%	+7.969	16%
last 14 days	185	96	52%	+8.457	5%
last 30 days	185	96	52%	+8.457	5%

Full history					ROI
Full history	100	52	52%	+7.034	7%
last 30 %	28	20	71%	+13.119	47%
last 14 days	100	52	52%	+7.034	7%
last 30 days	100	52	52%	+7.034	7%

Full history					ROI
Full history	140	73	52%	+6.383	5%
last 30 %	42	20	48%	-1.54	-4%
last 14 days	140	73	52%	+6.383	5%
last 30 days	140	73	52%	+6.383	5%

Full history					ROI
Full history	3	2	67%	+1.4	47%
last 30 %	1	0	0%	-1	-100%
last 14 days	0	0	—	0	—
last 30 days	3	2	67%	+1.4	47%

Full history					ROI
Full history	129	62	48%	+1.389	1%
last 30 %	39	13	33%	-11.08	-28%
last 14 days	129	62	48%	+1.389	1%
last 30 days	129	62	48%	+1.389	1%

Full history					ROI
Full history	21	11	52%	+0.559	3%
last 30 %	6	3	50%	+0.02	0%
last 14 days	21	11	52%	+0.559	3%
last 30 days	21	11	52%	+0.559	3%

Full history					ROI
Full history	2	1	50%	-0.16	-8%
last 30 %	1	0	0%	-1	-100%
last 14 days	2	1	50%	-0.16	-8%
last 30 days	2	1	50%	-0.16	-8%

Full history					ROI
Full history	21	9	43%	-1.611	-8%
last 30 %	6	3	50%	+0.3	5%
last 14 days	21	9	43%	-1.611	-8%
last 30 days	21	9	43%	-1.611	-8%

Full history					ROI
Full history	14	5	36%	-3.35	-24%
last 30 %	5	3	60%	+1.05	21%
last 14 days	14	5	36%	-3.35	-24%
last 30 days	14	5	36%	-3.35	-24%

Full history					ROI
Full history	71	30	42%	-7.251	-10%
last 30 %	21	13	62%	+6.55	31%
last 14 days	71	30	42%	-7.251	-10%
last 30 days	71	30	42%	-7.251	-10%

Full history					ROI
Full history	31	10	32%	-9.88	-32%
last 30 %	9	1	11%	-7	-78%
last 14 days	31	10	32%	-9.88	-32%
last 30 days	31	10	32%	-9.88	-32%

Full history					ROI
Full history	147	65	44%	-17.234	-12%
last 30 %	44	22	50%	+0.349	1%
last 14 days	147	65	44%	-17.234	-12%
last 30 days	147	65	44%	-17.234	-12%

Full history					ROI
Full history	259	121	47%	-17.32	-7%
last 30 %	78	34	44%	-11.392	-15%
last 14 days	259	121	47%	-17.32	-7%
last 30 days	259	121	47%	-17.32	-7%

Full history					ROI
Full history	191	83	43%	-17.7	-9%
last 30 %	54	16	30%	-20.93	-39%
last 14 days	191	83	43%	-17.7	-9%
last 30 days	191	83	43%	-17.7	-9%

Full history					ROI
Full history	346	142	41%	-47.969	-14%
last 30 %	104	51	49%	+2.359	2%
last 14 days	346	142	41%	-47.969	-14%
last 30 days	346	142	41%	-47.969	-14%

Full history					ROI
Full history	265	99	37%	-60.326	-23%
last 30 %	84	50	60%	+17.477	21%
last 14 days	265	99	37%	-60.326	-23%
last 30 days	265	99	37%	-60.326	-23%

Full history					ROI
Full history	221	69	31%	-78.84	-36%
last 30 %	66	27	41%	-9.81	-15%
last 14 days	221	69	31%	-78.84	-36%
last 30 days	221	69	31%	-78.84	-36%

Full history					ROI
Full history	316	114	36%	-83.014	-26%
last 30 %	82	30	37%	-21.792	-27%
last 14 days	316	114	36%	-83.014	-26%
last 30 days	316	114	36%	-83.014	-26%

Full history					ROI
Full history	365	128	35%	-90.43	-25%
last 30 %	110	43	39%	-17.31	-16%
last 14 days	365	128	35%	-90.43	-25%
last 30 days	365	128	35%	-90.43	-25%