Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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League Context

Recorded calls at their original odds. Qualification benchmarks remain separate.

Results include pushes and voids. Win rate is wins divided by all settled results. Return uses one unit per original bookmaker offer.

Click a column heading to reverse its order.

LeagueMatchesResultsWonWin rateReturn (u)

ChampionshipEngland3636613437%-93.254

Won 134 · Lost 232 · Void 0 · Push 0 · Pending 0

Full history					ROI
Full history	366	134	37%	-93.254	-25%
last 30 %	110	36	33%	-37.642	-34%
last 14 days	366	134	37%	-93.254	-25%
last 30 days	366	134	37%	-93.254	-25%

Full history					ROI
Full history	365	128	35%	-90.43	-25%
last 30 %	110	43	39%	-17.31	-16%
last 14 days	365	128	35%	-90.43	-25%
last 30 days	365	128	35%	-90.43	-25%

Full history					ROI
Full history	235	79	34%	-72.821	-31%
last 30 %	70	30	43%	-8.541	-12%
last 14 days	235	79	34%	-72.821	-31%
last 30 days	235	79	34%	-72.821	-31%

Full history					ROI
Full history	297	113	38%	-64.048	-22%
last 30 %	95	53	56%	+12.115	13%
last 14 days	297	113	38%	-64.048	-22%
last 30 days	297	113	38%	-64.048	-22%

Full history					ROI
Full history	379	152	40%	-59.469	-16%
last 30 %	114	48	42%	-12.011	-11%
last 14 days	379	152	40%	-59.469	-16%
last 30 days	379	152	40%	-59.469	-16%

Full history					ROI
Full history	270	125	46%	-20.35	-8%
last 30 %	61	22	36%	-17.751	-29%
last 14 days	270	125	46%	-20.35	-8%
last 30 days	270	125	46%	-20.35	-8%

Full history					ROI
Full history	147	65	44%	-17.234	-12%
last 30 %	44	22	50%	+0.349	1%
last 14 days	147	65	44%	-17.234	-12%
last 30 days	147	65	44%	-17.234	-12%

Full history					ROI
Full history	206	90	44%	-17	-8%
last 30 %	62	21	34%	-17.18	-28%
last 14 days	206	90	44%	-17	-8%
last 30 days	206	90	44%	-17	-8%

Full history					ROI
Full history	31	10	32%	-9.88	-32%
last 30 %	9	1	11%	-7	-78%
last 14 days	31	10	32%	-9.88	-32%
last 30 days	31	10	32%	-9.88	-32%

Full history					ROI
Full history	50	21	42%	-8.101	-16%
last 30 %	15	7	47%	-0.561	-4%
last 14 days	50	21	42%	-8.101	-16%
last 30 days	50	21	42%	-8.101	-16%

Full history					ROI
Full history	8	1	13%	-6.2	-78%
last 30 %	2	0	0%	-2	-100%
last 14 days	8	1	13%	-6.2	-78%
last 30 days	8	1	13%	-6.2	-78%

Full history					ROI
Full history	145	74	51%	+3.303	2%
last 30 %	44	21	48%	-1.62	-4%
last 14 days	145	74	51%	+3.303	2%
last 30 days	145	74	51%	+3.303	2%

Full history					ROI
Full history	103	53	51%	+5.884	6%
last 30 %	31	21	68%	+11.969	39%
last 14 days	103	53	51%	+5.884	6%
last 30 days	103	53	51%	+5.884	6%

Full history					ROI
Full history	185	96	52%	+8.457	5%
last 30 %	50	29	58%	+7.969	16%
last 14 days	185	96	52%	+8.457	5%
last 30 days	185	96	52%	+8.457	5%

Full history					ROI
Full history	14	11	79%	+9.935	71%
last 30 %	4	4	100%	+5.38	134%
last 14 days	11	9	82%	+8.69	79%
last 30 days	14	11	79%	+9.935	71%

Full history					ROI
Full history	90	41	46%	-4.662	-5%
last 30 %	27	18	67%	+8.569	32%
last 14 days	90	41	46%	-4.662	-5%
last 30 days	90	41	46%	-4.662	-5%

Full history					ROI
Full history	15	5	33%	-4.35	-29%
last 30 %	6	3	50%	+0.05	1%
last 14 days	15	5	33%	-4.35	-29%
last 30 days	15	5	33%	-4.35	-29%

Full history					ROI
Full history	8	3	38%	-2.34	-29%
last 30 %	2	0	0%	-2	-100%
last 14 days	8	3	38%	-2.34	-29%
last 30 days	8	3	38%	-2.34	-29%

Full history					ROI
Full history	8	3	38%	-1.971	-25%
last 30 %	2	0	0%	-2	-100%
last 14 days	8	3	38%	-1.971	-25%
last 30 days	8	3	38%	-1.971	-25%

Full history					ROI
Full history	6	2	33%	-1.83	-31%
last 30 %	0	0	—	0	—
last 14 days	6	2	33%	-1.83	-31%
last 30 days	6	2	33%	-1.83	-31%

Full history					ROI
Full history	21	9	43%	-1.611	-8%
last 30 %	6	3	50%	+0.3	5%
last 14 days	21	9	43%	-1.611	-8%
last 30 days	21	9	43%	-1.611	-8%

Full history					ROI
Full history	21	11	52%	+0.559	3%
last 30 %	6	3	50%	+0.02	0%
last 14 days	21	11	52%	+0.559	3%
last 30 days	21	11	52%	+0.559	3%

Full history					ROI
Full history	129	62	48%	+1.389	1%
last 30 %	39	13	33%	-11.08	-28%
last 14 days	129	62	48%	+1.389	1%
last 30 days	129	62	48%	+1.389	1%

Full history					ROI
Full history	3	2	67%	+1.4	47%
last 30 %	1	0	0%	-1	-100%
last 14 days	0	0	—	0	—
last 30 days	3	2	67%	+1.4	47%

Full history					ROI
Full history	258	128	50%	+3.397	1%
last 30 %	77	26	34%	-24.771	-32%
last 14 days	258	128	50%	+3.397	1%
last 30 days	258	128	50%	+3.397	1%

Full history					ROI
Full history	136	69	51%	+10.948	8%
last 30 %	41	17	41%	-6.211	-15%
last 14 days	136	69	51%	+10.948	8%
last 30 days	136	69	51%	+10.948	8%

Full history					ROI
Full history	87	48	55%	+11.768	14%
last 30 %	23	9	39%	-4.531	-20%
last 14 days	87	48	55%	+11.768	14%
last 30 days	87	48	55%	+11.768	14%

Full history					ROI
Full history	254	133	52%	+12.017	5%
last 30 %	75	47	63%	+19.417	26%
last 14 days	254	133	52%	+12.017	5%
last 30 days	254	133	52%	+12.017	5%

Full history					ROI
Full history	122	61	50%	+13.54	11%
last 30 %	44	24	55%	+10.52	24%
last 14 days	122	61	50%	+13.54	11%
last 30 days	122	61	50%	+13.54	11%

Full history					ROI
Full history	396	190	48%	+16.221	4%
last 30 %	119	71	60%	+31.085	26%
last 14 days	396	190	48%	+16.221	4%
last 30 days	396	190	48%	+16.221	4%

Full history					ROI
Full history	296	152	51%	+16.631	6%
last 30 %	87	41	47%	-6.23	-7%
last 14 days	296	152	51%	+16.631	6%
last 30 days	296	152	51%	+16.631	6%

Full history					ROI
Full history	128	74	58%	+26.549	21%
last 30 %	38	22	58%	+8.159	21%
last 14 days	128	74	58%	+26.549	21%
last 30 days	128	74	58%	+26.549	21%

Full history					ROI
Full history	261	151	58%	+45.288	17%
last 30 %	78	39	50%	-0.041	-0%
last 14 days	261	151	58%	+45.288	17%
last 30 days	261	151	58%	+45.288	17%

Full history					ROI
Full history	465	264	57%	+85.64	18%
last 30 %	132	67	51%	+0.154	0%
last 14 days	465	264	57%	+85.64	18%
last 30 days	465	264	57%	+85.64	18%