Benchmarks

Unified statistical cells with bookmaker breakdowns across all leagues.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Unified live cells

One row per statistic, scope and Over/Under, across all bookmakers and leagues. Click a cell to expand bookmaker totals across all leagues.

Live tier assignment

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Unified historical cells

All bookmakers and all leagues in scope, combined for each statistical cell.

Historical evidence

Click a statistical cell to expand one row per bookmaker, with all leagues pooled for that bookmaker.

Each signal uses one unit split equally across bookmakers. Multiple bookmaker offers are not independent matches. This view provides combined evidence; each live pick still uses its own qualification checks.

Benchmarks start on 15 August 2026. Match counts are distinct fixtures; signal counts can include different selections from one match.

Goals · UnderMatch totalMatches419419 SignalsNormal−48.11u-11.5% ROIReversed−16.19u-3.9% ROI10 bookmakers36 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	281281 Signals	−1.93u-0.7% ROI	−11.85u-4.2% ROI	34 leagues1 recorded · 280 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	127127 Signals	+15.73u12.4% ROI	−11.74u-9.2% ROI	30 leagues0 recorded · 127 reconstructed
Betfair ExchangeAll leagues pooled	400400 Signals	+40.61u10.2% ROI	−6.90u-1.7% ROI	36 leagues1 recorded · 399 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	−1.80u-22.5% ROI	−1.66u-20.8% ROI	6 leagues1 recorded · 7 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	+2.40u40.0% ROI	−2.73u-45.5% ROI	6 leagues1 recorded · 5 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−0.44u-11.0% ROI	−1.98u-49.5% ROI	4 leagues1 recorded · 3 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−0.20u-5.0% ROI	−0.40u-10.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed
Paddy PowerAll leagues pooled	298298 Signals	−22.40u-7.5% ROI	−18.60u-6.2% ROI	34 leagues1 recorded · 297 reconstructed
PinnacleAll leagues pooled	7474 Signals	+1.60u2.2% ROI	−6.87u-9.3% ROI	31 leagues1 recorded · 73 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	−5.13u-64.1% ROI	+0.45u5.6% ROI	6 leagues1 recorded · 7 reconstructed

Goals · OverMatch totalMatches397397 SignalsNormal−129.63u-32.7% ROIReversed−9.24u-2.3% ROI8 bookmakers36 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	276276 Signals	−161.00u-58.3% ROI	−0.95u-0.3% ROI	34 leagues0 recorded · 276 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	5353 Signals	−0.67u-1.3% ROI	−4.03u-7.6% ROI	21 leagues0 recorded · 53 reconstructed
Betfair ExchangeAll leagues pooled	346346 Signals	−117.00u-33.8% ROI	+0.23u0.1% ROI	35 leagues0 recorded · 346 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	+6.00u600.0% ROI	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	+9.50u950.0% ROI	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.09u4.5% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
Paddy PowerAll leagues pooled	286286 Signals	−80.50u-28.1% ROI	−14.30u-5.0% ROI	33 leagues0 recorded · 286 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.14u4.7% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed

Goals · UnderHome teamMatches233233 SignalsNormal−33.34u-14.3% ROIReversed−16.55u-7.1% ROI7 bookmakers31 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	194194 Signals	−30.97u-16.0% ROI	−8.78u-4.5% ROI	29 leagues1 recorded · 193 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	104104 Signals	−5.43u-5.2% ROI	−16.82u-16.2% ROI	23 leagues0 recorded · 104 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	99 Signals	−0.05u-0.6% ROI	−1.44u-16.0% ROI	8 leagues1 recorded · 8 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	−3.25u-40.6% ROI	+0.30u3.8% ROI	8 leagues1 recorded · 7 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	−1.62u-54.0% ROI	−0.12u-4.0% ROI	3 leagues1 recorded · 2 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+0.05u1.7% ROI	−0.47u-15.7% ROI	3 leagues1 recorded · 2 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−2.15u-53.8% ROI	+0.99u24.8% ROI	4 leagues1 recorded · 3 reconstructed

Goals · OverHome teamMatches219219 SignalsNormal−126.88u-57.9% ROIReversed−0.32u-0.1% ROI4 bookmakers32 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	209209 Signals	−132.00u-63.2% ROI	−0.28u-0.1% ROI	30 leagues0 recorded · 209 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	3737 Signals	−10.41u-28.1% ROI	−0.05u-0.1% ROI	16 leagues0 recorded · 37 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.09u9.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.04u1.3% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed

Goals · OverAway teamMatches210210 SignalsNormal−31.21u-14.9% ROIReversed−4.15u-2.0% ROI7 bookmakers32 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	193193 Signals	−31.00u-16.1% ROI	−3.49u-1.8% ROI	29 leagues1 recorded · 192 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	3434 Signals	−17.07u-50.2% ROI	−0.25u-0.7% ROI	13 leagues0 recorded · 34 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.73u14.6% ROI	4 leagues1 recorded · 4 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	+0.30u7.5% ROI	−0.39u-9.8% ROI	4 leagues1 recorded · 3 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.09u9.0% ROI	1 leagues1 recorded · 0 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	+2.95u147.5% ROI	−0.55u-27.5% ROI	2 leagues1 recorded · 1 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.49u24.5% ROI	2 leagues1 recorded · 1 reconstructed

Goals · UnderAway teamMatches209209 SignalsNormal−47.11u-22.5% ROIReversed−0.81u-0.4% ROI6 bookmakers32 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	179179 Signals	−39.77u-22.2% ROI	+2.54u1.4% ROI	29 leagues0 recorded · 179 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	9797 Signals	−17.96u-18.5% ROI	−7.61u-7.8% ROI	24 leagues0 recorded · 97 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	77 Signals	+5.20u74.3% ROI	−2.59u-37.0% ROI	7 leagues0 recorded · 7 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	+4.20u52.5% ROI	−3.05u-38.1% ROI	8 leagues0 recorded · 8 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+0.25u8.3% ROI	−0.57u-19.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	−4.39u-73.2% ROI	+0.57u9.5% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 6 reconstructed

Cards · UnderMatch totalMatches188188 SignalsNormal−35.29u-18.8% ROIReversed−15.51u-8.2% ROI1 bookmakers33 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	188188 Signals	−35.29u-18.8% ROI	−15.51u-8.2% ROI	33 leagues0 recorded · 188 reconstructed

Corners · UnderAway teamMatches135135 SignalsNormal−9.14u-6.8% ROIReversed−14.61u-10.8% ROI8 bookmakers26 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	5555 Signals	−1.93u-3.5% ROI	−4.32u-7.9% ROI	17 leagues0 recorded · 55 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	6363 Signals	−0.60u-1.0% ROI	−8.10u-12.9% ROI	22 leagues0 recorded · 63 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	99 Signals	0.00u0.0% ROI	+1.05u11.7% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 9 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	+1.70u42.5% ROI	−1.73u-43.3% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	77 Signals	+0.21u3.0% ROI	−1.81u-25.9% ROI	6 leagues0 recorded · 7 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	1717 Signals	+1.95u11.5% ROI	−3.62u-21.3% ROI	9 leagues0 recorded · 17 reconstructed
Paddy PowerAll leagues pooled	7575 Signals	−21.37u-28.5% ROI	−2.20u-2.9% ROI	10 leagues0 recorded · 75 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.53u26.5% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed

Corners · UnderHome teamMatches114114 SignalsNormal−16.60u-14.6% ROIReversed−11.17u-9.8% ROI8 bookmakers25 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	4444 Signals	+1.75u4.0% ROI	−6.89u-15.7% ROI	16 leagues0 recorded · 44 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	4545 Signals	−3.55u-7.9% ROI	−5.40u-12.0% ROI	19 leagues0 recorded · 45 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	−4.90u-61.3% ROI	+0.27u3.4% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 8 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.65u32.5% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+0.30u10.0% ROI	+0.93u31.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	77 Signals	+1.50u21.4% ROI	−1.29u-18.4% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 7 reconstructed
Paddy PowerAll leagues pooled	7575 Signals	−12.57u-16.8% ROI	−5.25u-7.0% ROI	11 leagues0 recorded · 75 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.33u33.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed

Corners · OverHome teamMatches102102 SignalsNormal−34.33u-33.7% ROIReversed+4.84u4.7% ROI8 bookmakers24 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	5151 Signals	−9.04u-17.7% ROI	+2.17u4.3% ROI	17 leagues0 recorded · 51 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	6161 Signals	−16.29u-26.7% ROI	+4.59u7.5% ROI	20 leagues0 recorded · 61 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	1010 Signals	+1.10u11.0% ROI	−1.09u-10.9% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 10 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.63u31.5% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+0.60u20.0% ROI	−0.75u-25.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	1313 Signals	−9.50u-73.1% ROI	+0.46u3.5% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 13 reconstructed
Paddy PowerAll leagues pooled	4545 Signals	−24.53u-54.5% ROI	+4.38u9.7% ROI	9 leagues0 recorded · 45 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.04u4.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed

Cards · UnderHome teamMatches9999 SignalsNormal−14.63u-14.8% ROIReversed−5.60u-5.7% ROI1 bookmakers25 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	9999 Signals	−14.63u-14.8% ROI	−5.60u-5.7% ROI	25 leagues0 recorded · 99 reconstructed

Cards · UnderAway teamMatches9898 SignalsNormal−15.75u-16.1% ROIReversed−13.12u-13.4% ROI1 bookmakers24 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	9898 Signals	−15.75u-16.1% ROI	−13.12u-13.4% ROI	24 leagues0 recorded · 98 reconstructed

Corners · OverAway teamMatches9393 SignalsNormal−4.78u-5.1% ROIReversed−12.01u-12.9% ROI8 bookmakers26 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	4343 Signals	−5.34u-12.4% ROI	−1.39u-3.2% ROI	18 leagues0 recorded · 43 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	4343 Signals	+8.77u20.4% ROI	−10.92u-25.4% ROI	18 leagues0 recorded · 43 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	99 Signals	+3.70u41.1% ROI	−1.97u-21.9% ROI	7 leagues0 recorded · 9 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	+3.50u350.0% ROI	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.42u21.0% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	−3.80u-47.5% ROI	−0.36u-4.5% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 8 reconstructed
Paddy PowerAll leagues pooled	5050 Signals	−20.00u-40.0% ROI	−1.96u-3.9% ROI	10 leagues0 recorded · 50 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.24u24.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed

Corners · UnderMatch totalMatches9292 SignalsNormal−16.10u-17.5% ROIReversed+1.11u1.2% ROI7 bookmakers26 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	5454 Signals	−15.26u-28.3% ROI	+5.93u11.0% ROI	20 leagues0 recorded · 54 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	4343 Signals	−5.23u-12.2% ROI	+1.48u3.4% ROI	14 leagues0 recorded · 43 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.35u17.5% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+3.00u100.0% ROI	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.31u15.5% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
Paddy PowerAll leagues pooled	3737 Signals	−5.32u-14.4% ROI	−1.06u-2.9% ROI	10 leagues0 recorded · 37 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	+0.39u39.0% ROI	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed

Corners · OverMatch totalMatches8888 SignalsNormal−18.21u-20.7% ROIReversed−0.97u-1.1% ROI5 bookmakers23 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	4040 Signals	−9.16u-22.9% ROI	+4.27u10.7% ROI	16 leagues0 recorded · 40 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	3030 Signals	−7.39u-24.6% ROI	−0.70u-2.3% ROI	13 leagues0 recorded · 30 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.15u5.0% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	+3.50u87.5% ROI	−1.79u-44.8% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed
Paddy PowerAll leagues pooled	5151 Signals	−10.20u-20.0% ROI	−2.87u-5.6% ROI	10 leagues0 recorded · 51 reconstructed

Shots · UnderAway teamMatches8181 SignalsNormal−12.76u-15.8% ROIReversed+0.50u0.6% ROI7 bookmakers18 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	4444 Signals	−11.78u-26.8% ROI	+6.00u13.6% ROI	9 leagues0 recorded · 44 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	3838 Signals	−8.93u-23.5% ROI	+0.81u2.1% ROI	11 leagues0 recorded · 38 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+2.55u85.0% ROI	−1.64u-54.7% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+1.75u58.3% ROI	−1.72u-57.3% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	−3.33u-41.6% ROI	+0.66u8.2% ROI	6 leagues0 recorded · 8 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	99 Signals	+1.95u21.7% ROI	−3.00u-33.3% ROI	6 leagues0 recorded · 9 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	1616 Signals	−5.72u-35.7% ROI	+3.18u19.9% ROI	10 leagues0 recorded · 16 reconstructed

Shots on target · OverHome teamMatches7171 SignalsNormal−2.84u-4.0% ROIReversed−9.58u-13.5% ROI6 bookmakers17 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	3939 Signals	−4.20u-10.8% ROI	−1.61u-4.1% ROI	9 leagues0 recorded · 39 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	4545 Signals	−5.76u-12.8% ROI	−6.40u-14.2% ROI	17 leagues0 recorded · 45 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	+0.45u22.5% ROI	−0.72u-36.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	+0.76u19.0% ROI	−1.74u-43.5% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	+3.50u87.5% ROI	−2.60u-65.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	+0.84u10.5% ROI	−3.29u-41.1% ROI	6 leagues0 recorded · 8 reconstructed

Cards · OverMatch totalMatches7070 SignalsNormal−21.72u-31.0% ROIReversed−7.11u-10.2% ROI1 bookmakers26 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	7070 Signals	−21.72u-31.0% ROI	−7.11u-10.2% ROI	26 leagues0 recorded · 70 reconstructed

Shots on target · UnderAway teamMatches6767 SignalsNormal−10.41u-15.5% ROIReversed+0.25u0.4% ROI6 bookmakers17 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	3535 Signals	−9.25u-26.4% ROI	+4.13u11.8% ROI	10 leagues0 recorded · 35 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	4444 Signals	+3.65u8.3% ROI	−4.02u-9.1% ROI	13 leagues0 recorded · 44 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.00u100.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	−3.51u-58.5% ROI	+0.89u14.8% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 6 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	−0.70u-23.3% ROI	−0.10u-3.3% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	1111 Signals	+2.64u24.0% ROI	−6.82u-62.0% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 11 reconstructed

Shots · UnderMatch totalMatches6666 SignalsNormal−15.09u-22.9% ROIReversed+2.90u4.4% ROI5 bookmakers17 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	4242 Signals	−4.71u-11.2% ROI	−1.36u-3.2% ROI	9 leagues1 recorded · 41 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.45u45.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.44u48.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	−6.00u-100.0% ROI	+2.24u37.3% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 6 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	2222 Signals	−3.77u-17.1% ROI	+0.52u2.4% ROI	11 leagues0 recorded · 22 reconstructed

Shots · OverHome teamMatches5858 SignalsNormal−4.36u-7.5% ROIReversed−3.50u-6.0% ROI7 bookmakers15 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	3636 Signals	−11.84u-32.9% ROI	+6.47u18.0% ROI	9 leagues0 recorded · 36 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	2525 Signals	−6.26u-25.0% ROI	+0.48u1.9% ROI	11 leagues0 recorded · 25 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+4.95u165.0% ROI	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	+3.40u170.0% ROI	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	+2.30u46.0% ROI	−3.59u-71.8% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 5 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	+2.75u45.8% ROI	−2.80u-46.7% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 6 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	−0.95u-15.8% ROI	−0.94u-15.7% ROI	6 leagues0 recorded · 6 reconstructed

Shots · OverAway teamMatches5757 SignalsNormal−6.40u-11.2% ROIReversed−6.41u-11.2% ROI6 bookmakers19 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	2727 Signals	+2.87u10.6% ROI	−6.78u-25.1% ROI	10 leagues1 recorded · 26 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	1717 Signals	−7.37u-43.4% ROI	+3.44u20.2% ROI	10 leagues0 recorded · 17 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	+1.65u165.0% ROI	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	1010 Signals	−2.19u-21.9% ROI	−0.43u-4.3% ROI	8 leagues0 recorded · 10 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	+0.85u21.3% ROI	−1.15u-28.7% ROI	3 leagues1 recorded · 3 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	1111 Signals	−1.63u-14.8% ROI	−3.28u-29.8% ROI	7 leagues0 recorded · 11 reconstructed

Shots · UnderHome teamMatches5353 SignalsNormal−13.23u-25.0% ROIReversed+4.79u9.0% ROI5 bookmakers15 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	2828 Signals	−2.02u-7.2% ROI	−2.13u-7.6% ROI	8 leagues1 recorded · 27 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	2121 Signals	−10.44u-49.7% ROI	+4.66u22.2% ROI	9 leagues0 recorded · 21 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−0.42u-10.5% ROI	−0.74u-18.5% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	−2.10u-35.0% ROI	+1.05u17.5% ROI	3 leagues1 recorded · 5 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	1414 Signals	−3.37u-24.1% ROI	+3.18u22.7% ROI	8 leagues0 recorded · 14 reconstructed

Cards · OverAway teamMatches5252 SignalsNormal−2.53u-4.9% ROIReversed−7.79u-15.0% ROI1 bookmakers24 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	5252 Signals	−2.53u-4.9% ROI	−7.79u-15.0% ROI	24 leagues0 recorded · 52 reconstructed

Shots on target · OverAway teamMatches5252 SignalsNormal−6.66u-12.8% ROIReversed−3.72u-7.2% ROI7 bookmakers19 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	2424 Signals	−5.37u-22.4% ROI	+1.98u8.2% ROI	8 leagues1 recorded · 23 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	3232 Signals	−8.25u-25.8% ROI	−1.04u-3.3% ROI	14 leagues0 recorded · 32 reconstructed
BetliveAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.60u60.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.44u22.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	+3.29u65.8% ROI	−2.77u-55.4% ROI	5 leagues1 recorded · 4 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	−0.15u-3.0% ROI	−1.36u-27.2% ROI	3 leagues1 recorded · 4 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	+3.03u60.6% ROI	−3.97u-79.4% ROI	4 leagues1 recorded · 4 reconstructed

Cards · OverHome teamMatches5050 SignalsNormal+6.50u13.0% ROIReversed−8.84u-17.7% ROI1 bookmakers22 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	5050 Signals	+6.50u13.0% ROI	−8.84u-17.7% ROI	22 leagues0 recorded · 50 reconstructed

Shots on target · UnderHome teamMatches4949 SignalsNormal−20.88u-42.6% ROIReversed+8.18u16.7% ROI5 bookmakers17 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	2323 Signals	−8.02u-34.9% ROI	+4.49u19.5% ROI	8 leagues1 recorded · 22 reconstructed
BetMGM UKAll leagues pooled	3131 Signals	−10.71u-34.5% ROI	+1.36u4.4% ROI	12 leagues0 recorded · 31 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	+1.35u67.5% ROI	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	2 leagues1 recorded · 1 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−2.35u-58.8% ROI	+0.52u13.0% ROI	3 leagues1 recorded · 3 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	−3.98u-66.3% ROI	+2.09u34.8% ROI	6 leagues1 recorded · 5 reconstructed

Shots · OverMatch totalMatches4646 SignalsNormal+0.50u1.1% ROIReversed−8.36u-18.2% ROI5 bookmakers15 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	3131 Signals	−3.29u-10.6% ROI	−1.79u-5.8% ROI	9 leagues0 recorded · 31 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	+1.85u185.0% ROI	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+0.05u1.7% ROI	+1.28u42.7% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	+0.38u7.6% ROI	−2.38u-47.6% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 5 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	1616 Signals	+0.29u1.8% ROI	−2.69u-16.8% ROI	10 leagues0 recorded · 16 reconstructed

Shots on target · UnderMatch totalMatches4141 SignalsNormal−15.42u-37.6% ROIReversed+9.77u23.8% ROI5 bookmakers12 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	3131 Signals	−9.10u-29.4% ROI	+5.13u16.5% ROI	8 leagues0 recorded · 31 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.95u95.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	+0.55u13.8% ROI	−1.53u-38.3% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−4.00u-100.0% ROI	+2.50u62.5% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−4.00u-100.0% ROI	+4.38u109.5% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed

Shots on target · OverMatch totalMatches2828 SignalsNormal−4.41u-15.8% ROIReversed−2.88u-10.3% ROI5 bookmakers13 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
Bet365All leagues pooled	1616 Signals	−2.79u-17.4% ROI	+0.81u5.0% ROI	7 leagues1 recorded · 15 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	+2.35u117.5% ROI	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
KambiAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	+2.30u115.0% ROI	−0.63u-31.5% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−2.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.10u5.0% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	1111 Signals	−0.52u-4.7% ROI	−4.70u-42.7% ROI	10 leagues1 recorded · 10 reconstructed

Throw-ins · UnderMatch totalMatches2424 SignalsNormal+5.50u22.9% ROIReversed−8.84u-36.8% ROI4 bookmakers13 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
BetliveAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	+5.80u96.7% ROI	−4.65u-77.5% ROI	6 leagues0 recorded · 6 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	−0.85u-17.0% ROI	+0.20u4.0% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 5 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	99 Signals	+0.85u9.4% ROI	−2.30u-25.6% ROI	6 leagues0 recorded · 9 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	99 Signals	+3.76u41.8% ROI	−5.64u-62.7% ROI	6 leagues0 recorded · 9 reconstructed

Fouls · UnderMatch totalMatches2121 SignalsNormal+5.46u26.0% ROIReversed−6.68u-31.8% ROI3 bookmakers9 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	+2.30u46.0% ROI	−1.82u-36.4% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 5 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	1111 Signals	+1.35u12.3% ROI	−2.19u-19.9% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 11 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	+0.96u12.0% ROI	−2.85u-35.6% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 8 reconstructed

Fouls · UnderHome teamMatches1717 SignalsNormal+2.52u14.8% ROIReversed−5.15u-30.3% ROI3 bookmakers8 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	−0.15u-7.5% ROI	−0.75u-37.5% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	1313 Signals	+2.85u21.9% ROI	−4.50u-34.6% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 13 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−2.18u-54.5% ROI	+1.17u29.3% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed

Throw-ins · UnderHome teamMatches1616 SignalsNormal−1.17u-7.3% ROIReversed−3.10u-19.4% ROI4 bookmakers10 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
BetliveAll leagues pooled	22 Signals	+0.45u22.5% ROI	−0.62u-31.0% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 2 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+0.85u28.3% ROI	−1.20u-40.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	−1.15u-14.4% ROI	−1.85u-23.1% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 8 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−2.32u-58.0% ROI	+1.24u31.0% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed

Throw-ins · UnderAway teamMatches1515 SignalsNormal+10.33u68.9% ROIReversed−11.25u-75.0% ROI3 bookmakers11 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
BetliveAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+4.20u140.0% ROI	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	+4.15u83.0% ROI	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 5 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	+3.21u40.1% ROI	−4.25u-53.1% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 8 reconstructed

Fouls · UnderAway teamMatches1212 SignalsNormal−6.25u-52.1% ROIReversed+1.93u16.1% ROI4 bookmakers6 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
BetliveAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.42u42.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	−3.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.35u45.0% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	+2.41u48.2% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 5 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	66 Signals	−0.25u-4.2% ROI	−0.64u-10.7% ROI	6 leagues0 recorded · 6 reconstructed

Goal kicks · UnderMatch totalMatches1212 SignalsNormal+0.46u3.8% ROIReversed−1.22u-10.2% ROI3 bookmakers7 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	+1.95u195.0% ROI	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+0.90u30.0% ROI	−1.20u-40.0% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	88 Signals	−2.39u-29.9% ROI	+0.98u12.3% ROI	5 leagues0 recorded · 8 reconstructed

Fouls · OverHome teamMatches99 SignalsNormal−3.92u-43.6% ROIReversed+1.15u12.8% ROI3 bookmakers6 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
BetliveAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.80u80.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−2.50u-62.5% ROI	+0.55u13.7% ROI	3 leagues1 recorded · 3 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	44 Signals	−0.42u-10.5% ROI	−0.20u-5.0% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 4 reconstructed

Goal kicks · UnderAway teamMatches88 SignalsNormal+1.86u23.3% ROIReversed−3.25u-40.6% ROI2 bookmakers4 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	−0.60u-20.0% ROI	−0.05u-1.7% ROI	2 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	+2.46u49.2% ROI	−3.20u-64.0% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 5 reconstructed

Goal kicks · UnderHome teamMatches88 SignalsNormal+1.54u19.2% ROIReversed−2.95u-36.9% ROI3 bookmakers6 leagues

Bookmaker totals below pool all leagues for this statistical cell.

Bookmaker	Matches	Normal	Reversed	Evidence coverage
CrocobetAll leagues pooled	11 Signals	−1.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.30u30.0% ROI	1 leagues0 recorded · 1 reconstructed
LiderbetAll leagues pooled	55 Signals	+1.45u29.0% ROI	−2.26u-45.2% ROI	4 leagues0 recorded · 5 reconstructed
SuperbetAll leagues pooled	33 Signals	+1.09u36.3% ROI	−1.34u-44.7% ROI	3 leagues0 recorded · 3 reconstructed

Exact league and contract evidence

Historical direction benchmarks

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · half-point lines only. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

5Cells with a direction

34Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

39Cells in this selection

Bookmaker

League

StatisticOriginal model directionScopeCurrently producingPick stageShow cellsOrder benchmark rows

Rows with the most historical matches appear first. This only changes the table order; it does not assign Free or VIP.

Normal follows the original model direction. Reversed takes the opposite side. The higher historical profit selects a direction to evaluate, including the smaller loss when both lost. A live pick still needs positive estimated return at its current odds.

1–5 of 5 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction	Current picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	6	−6.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.09u1.5% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	6	−6.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.23u3.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	5	−2.00u-40.0% ROI	−0.04u-0.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	5	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.02u0.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Betfair ExchangeSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	5	−5.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.28u5.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record.

Each benchmark row is historical evidence for a bookmaker, league and market. It has no fixed Free or VIP tier. Tiers are assigned to live picks using the estimated return at the available odds. Top 50% of approved live market groups, ranked by estimated return.

Market groups are ranked together at each evaluation. The VIP share is rounded up to a whole group, so a small approved pool may leave no Free groups. Monitoring alerts use a provisional ranking that can change at confirmation.

Release 20261020-composite-live-v2 · measured 20/10/2026, 20:24:01