Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Historical direction benchmarks

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

75Cells with a direction

50Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

125Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeCurrently producingPick stageShow cellsOrder benchmark rows

Reset

Rows with the most historical matches appear first. This only changes the table order; it does not assign Free or VIP.

Normal follows the original model direction. Reversed takes the opposite side. The higher historical profit selects a direction to evaluate, including the smaller loss when both lost. A live pick still needs positive estimated return at its current odds.

1–40 of 75 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction	Current picks
Betfair ExchangeLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 53 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	54	−28.51u-52.8% ROI	+2.82u5.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Paddy PowerLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 48 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	49	−25.23u-51.5% ROI	−0.93u-1.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
PinnacleLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 48 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	49	−16.46u-33.6% ROI	+9.21u18.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 47 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	48	−19.92u-41.5% ROI	+1.55u3.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 38 reconstructed · 1 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	39	−11.22u-28.8% ROI	+0.88u2.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 36 reconstructed · 1 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	37	−12.98u-35.1% ROI	+0.58u1.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Betfair ExchangeLigue 2	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 36 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	37	−1.83u-4.9% ROI	−1.27u-3.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 33 reconstructed · 1 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	34	−27.50u-80.9% ROI	−0.64u-1.9% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 32 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	33	+8.00u24.2% ROI	+0.21u0.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Paddy PowerLigue 2	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 32 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	33	+26.00u78.8% ROI	−5.98u-18.1% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKLigue 2	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 32 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	32	−9.47u-29.6% ROI	+2.69u8.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 29 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	29	−19.00u-65.5% ROI	−0.60u-2.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 28 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	29	−17.30u-59.7% ROI	+5.41u18.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKLigue 2	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 28 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	28	−14.10u-50.4% ROI	+7.70u27.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 20 reconstructed · 1 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	21	−5.04u-24.0% ROI	+1.39u6.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKLigue 2	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 21 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	21	−0.64u-3.0% ROI	−1.34u-6.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetliveLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 17 reconstructed · 1 recorded 44 · scraped	18	−6.10u-33.9% ROI	−0.84u-4.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKLigue 2	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 18 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	18	−5.49u-30.5% ROI	−0.68u-3.8% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 17 reconstructed · 1 recorded 8 · scraped	18	−2.30u-12.8% ROI	−0.72u-4.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 17 reconstructed · 1 recorded 200734 · scraped	18	−9.51u-52.8% ROI	+1.40u7.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 17 reconstructed · 1 recorded 529 · scraped	18	−1.67u-9.3% ROI	−3.05u-16.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 17 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	17	−3.99u-23.5% ROI	+1.30u7.7% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetLigue 2	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 16 reconstructed · 1 recorded mt:16:513 · scraped	17	−2.00u-11.8% ROI	−2.49u-14.6% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 16 reconstructed · 1 recorded mt:16:502 · scraped	17	−0.55u-3.2% ROI	−2.04u-12.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetLigue 2	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 14 reconstructed · 1 recorded 200734 · scraped	15	+6.60u44.0% ROI	−1.70u-11.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetLigue 2	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 1 recorded 535 · scraped	14	−7.68u-54.9% ROI	+0.78u5.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetLigue 2	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 1 recorded 544 · scraped	14	+0.93u6.6% ROI	−1.39u-9.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Corners · OverMatch total Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	13	−3.07u-23.6% ROI	+1.22u9.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetliveLigue 2	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 1 recorded 99 · scraped	13	−2.00u-15.4% ROI	−1.71u-13.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetliveLigue 2	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 1 recorded 4339 · scraped	13	−6.11u-47.0% ROI	+0.06u0.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetLigue 2	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 1 recorded 53 · scraped	13	−6.06u-46.6% ROI	+0.06u0.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetLigue 2	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:512 · scraped	13	−6.10u-46.9% ROI	−0.36u-2.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetLigue 2	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 1 recorded mt:16:504 · scraped	13	+3.08u23.7% ROI	−4.04u-31.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Ligue 2	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	12	+6.60u55.0% ROI	−8.45u-70.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetliveLigue 2	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 1 recorded 4345 · scraped	12	+4.04u33.7% ROI	−4.68u-39.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetLigue 2	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 1 recorded 116 · scraped	12	−5.25u-43.7% ROI	+0.19u1.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetLigue 2	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 1 recorded 52 · scraped	12	+4.09u34.1% ROI	−4.69u-39.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetLigue 2	Yellow cards · UnderMatch total Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:1108 · scraped	12	−1.95u-16.3% ROI	−0.25u-2.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetLigue 2	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 1 recorded 733 · scraped	12	−2.06u-17.2% ROI	−0.60u-5.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetLigue 2	Yellow cards · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:511 · scraped	11	−3.20u-29.1% ROI	+0.65u5.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record.

Each benchmark row is historical evidence for a bookmaker, league and market. It has no fixed Free or VIP tier. Tiers are assigned to live picks using the estimated return at the available odds. Top 50% of approved live market groups, ranked by estimated return.

Market groups are ranked together at each evaluation. The VIP share is rounded up to a whole group, so a small approved pool may leave no Free groups. Monitoring alerts use a provisional ranking that can change at confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 20/10/2026, 07:04:24