Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Historical direction benchmarks

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · half-point lines only. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

66Cells with a direction

64Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

130Cells in this selection

Bookmaker

League

StatisticOriginal model directionScopeCurrently producingPick stageShow cellsOrder benchmark rows

Reset

Rows with the most historical matches appear first. This only changes the table order; it does not assign Free or VIP.

Normal follows the original model direction. Reversed takes the opposite side. The higher historical profit selects a direction to evaluate, including the smaller loss when both lost. A live pick still needs positive estimated return at its current odds.

1–40 of 66 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction	Current picks
Betfair ExchangeSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 31 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	34	+33.92u99.8% ROI	−3.81u-11.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 28 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	31	+6.80u21.9% ROI	−2.13u-6.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 22 reconstructed · 2 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	24	−11.80u-49.2% ROI	+1.20u5.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 19 reconstructed · 3 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	22	−18.25u-83.0% ROI	−0.80u-3.6% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 20 reconstructed · 2 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	22	−4.25u-19.3% ROI	−0.55u-2.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 15 reconstructed · 3 recorded 200734 · scraped	18	−14.92u-82.9% ROI	+0.64u3.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 14 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	17	−17.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.34u2.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Paddy PowerSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 14 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	17	+5.00u29.4% ROI	−1.86u-10.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Betfair ExchangeSaudi Pro League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 12 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	15	−15.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.28u1.9% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Paddy PowerSaudi Pro League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 13 reconstructed · 2 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	15	+1.50u10.0% ROI	−1.50u-10.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 13 reconstructed · 1 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	14	−14.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.13u1.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 3 recorded 200734 · scraped	14	−14.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.51u3.6% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 12 reconstructed · 2 recorded 544 · scraped	14	+2.25u16.1% ROI	−2.24u-16.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 10 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	13	−11.52u-88.6% ROI	+0.77u5.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 2 recorded 53 · scraped	13	−7.75u-59.6% ROI	+0.54u4.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 2 recorded 52 · scraped	13	+1.55u11.9% ROI	−2.57u-19.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 2 recorded mt:16:505 · scraped	13	−7.80u-60.0% ROI	+0.76u5.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 2 recorded mt:16:504 · scraped	13	−0.90u-6.9% ROI	−1.35u-10.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
PinnacleSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 12 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	13	+3.99u30.7% ROI	−4.36u-33.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 3 recorded 733 · scraped	13	−0.82u-6.3% ROI	−2.52u-19.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 2 recorded 535 · scraped	13	−4.55u-35.0% ROI	+4.79u36.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Shots · UnderAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 2 recorded 201592 · scraped	13	−5.35u-41.2% ROI	+0.82u6.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Shots · UnderMatch total Evidence 10 reconstructed · 2 recorded 201590 · scraped	12	−2.96u-24.7% ROI	−0.43u-3.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetliveSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 1 recorded 4339 · scraped	11	−5.75u-52.3% ROI	+0.09u0.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetliveSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 1 recorded 4345 · scraped	11	+0.65u5.9% ROI	−1.69u-15.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Saudi Pro League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 2 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	10	+0.83u8.3% ROI	−2.79u-27.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKSaudi Pro League	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	10	+1.44u14.4% ROI	−3.73u-37.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiSaudi Pro League	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1002035671 · scraped	10	+2.10u21.0% ROI	−2.59u-25.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetSaudi Pro League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 2 recorded mt:16:513 · scraped	10	+0.25u2.5% ROI	−1.97u-19.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetSaudi Pro League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 2 recorded 116 · scraped	9	+3.90u43.3% ROI	−3.55u-39.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
KambiSaudi Pro League	Shots on target · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 1 recorded 1002035667 · scraped	9	−2.42u-26.9% ROI	−0.96u-10.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetSaudi Pro League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 2 recorded mt:16:512 · scraped	9	−4.80u-53.3% ROI	+0.62u6.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetSaudi Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 1 recorded mt:16:502 · scraped	9	−9.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.50u16.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 1 recorded 704 · scraped	9	−0.75u-8.3% ROI	+3.85u42.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 2 recorded 713 · scraped	9	−1.50u-16.7% ROI	−0.35u-3.9% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 2 recorded 544 · scraped	9	−1.80u-20.0% ROI	−0.85u-9.5% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Shots on target · UnderAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 1 recorded 200704 · scraped	9	−1.68u-18.7% ROI	−1.69u-18.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetSaudi Pro League	Shots on target · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 1 recorded 200702 · scraped	9	−2.65u-29.4% ROI	+2.16u24.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetliveSaudi Pro League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 1 recorded 99 · scraped	8	−3.50u-43.8% ROI	+0.10u1.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKSaudi Pro League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	8	−0.48u-6.0% ROI	−2.64u-33.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record.

Each benchmark row is historical evidence for a bookmaker, league and market. It has no fixed Free or VIP tier. Tiers are assigned to live picks using the estimated return at the available odds. Top 50% of approved live market groups, ranked by estimated return.

Market groups are ranked together at each evaluation. The VIP share is rounded up to a whole group, so a small approved pool may leave no Free groups. Monitoring alerts use a provisional ranking that can change at confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 20/10/2026, 13:32:40

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Historical direction benchmarks

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