Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Historical direction benchmarks

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · half-point lines only. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

67Cells with a direction

99Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

166Cells in this selection

Bookmaker

League

StatisticOriginal model directionScopeCurrently producingPick stageShow cellsOrder benchmark rows

Reset

Rows with the most historical matches appear first. This only changes the table order; it does not assign Free or VIP.

Normal follows the original model direction. Reversed takes the opposite side. The higher historical profit selects a direction to evaluate, including the smaller loss when both lost. A live pick still needs positive estimated return at its current odds.

1–40 of 67 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction	Current picks
Betfair ExchangePro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 38 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	38	−20.00u-52.6% ROI	+2.15u5.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 34 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	34	0.00u0.0% ROI	−1.63u-4.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Betfair ExchangePro League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 34 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	34	−34.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.80u2.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 32 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	32	+4.08u12.8% ROI	−4.70u-14.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 31 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	31	−5.65u-18.2% ROI	−1.41u-4.6% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 31 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	31	+7.55u24.4% ROI	−4.71u-15.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 28 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	28	−28.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.51u1.8% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 27 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	27	−27.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.26u1.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Paddy PowerPro League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 24 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	24	−14.50u-60.4% ROI	−0.55u-2.3% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Paddy PowerPro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 24 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	24	−10.00u-41.7% ROI	−0.57u-2.4% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKPro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 12 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	12	−4.28u-35.7% ROI	+0.67u5.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetlivePro League	Throw-ins · UnderMatch total Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded 247 · scraped	11	+7.85u71.4% ROI	−6.85u-62.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetPro League	Throw-ins · UnderMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded -158 · scraped	9	+2.70u30.0% ROI	−4.20u-46.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetPro League	Throw-ins · UnderHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded -159 · scraped	9	+2.90u32.2% ROI	−4.25u-47.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetPro League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:512 · scraped	9	+0.90u10.0% ROI	−1.51u-16.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
PinnaclePro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	9	−0.10u-1.1% ROI	−0.37u-4.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetlivePro League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 97 · scraped	8	+1.75u21.9% ROI	−1.99u-24.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKPro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	8	−5.55u-69.4% ROI	+0.09u1.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetPro League	Throw-ins · UnderAway team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded -160 · scraped	8	+0.60u7.5% ROI	−2.10u-26.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetPro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 200734 · scraped	8	−5.38u-67.3% ROI	+0.65u8.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	7	+3.67u52.5% ROI	−5.38u-76.9% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Corners · OverMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	7	+1.99u28.5% ROI	−3.33u-47.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	7	+0.40u5.8% ROI	−1.55u-22.2% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
Bet365Pro League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	7	+0.33u4.7% ROI	−1.53u-21.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKPro League	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	7	+4.39u62.7% ROI	−3.69u-52.7% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKPro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	7	+3.21u45.9% ROI	−4.62u-66.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetMGM UKPro League	Shots on target · OverAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_shots_on_target · thestatsapi	7	+1.84u26.3% ROI	−3.84u-54.9% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
CrocobetPro League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 115 · scraped	7	−1.70u-24.3% ROI	+0.21u3.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetPro League	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:513 · scraped	7	+5.00u71.4% ROI	−2.67u-38.1% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetPro League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:513 · scraped	7	−2.90u-41.4% ROI	+0.12u1.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetPro League	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:512 · scraped	7	−1.50u-21.4% ROI	−0.15u-2.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
LiderbetPro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:504 · scraped	7	+1.70u24.3% ROI	−2.05u-29.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetPro League	Corners · OverMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 704 · scraped	7	+3.38u48.3% ROI	−5.59u-79.9% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetPro League	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 535 · scraped	7	−7.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.22u3.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetPro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 544 · scraped	7	−0.95u-13.6% ROI	+0.47u6.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
SuperbetPro League	Shots on target · OverHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 200703 · scraped	7	−4.05u-57.9% ROI	+0.94u13.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetlivePro League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4339 · scraped	6	−6.00u-100.0% ROI	+2.34u39.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetlivePro League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 44 · scraped	6	−2.55u-42.5% ROI	−0.11u-1.8% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetlivePro League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4345 · scraped	6	+0.05u0.8% ROI	−1.35u-22.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks
BetlivePro League	Throw-ins · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 245 · scraped	6	+3.60u60.0% ROI	−3.20u-53.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return	No current Free picks

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record.

Each benchmark row is historical evidence for a bookmaker, league and market. It has no fixed Free or VIP tier. Tiers are assigned to live picks using the estimated return at the available odds. Top 50% of approved live market groups, ranked by estimated return.

Market groups are ranked together at each evaluation. The VIP share is rounded up to a whole group, so a small approved pool may leave no Free groups. Monitoring alerts use a provisional ranking that can change at confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 20/10/2026, 10:56:28

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