Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

47Cells with a direction

23Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

70Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

Reset

1–40 of 47 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
Betfair ExchangeCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 45 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	45	+5.75u12.8% ROI	−0.59u-1.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 42 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	42	+12.10u28.8% ROI	−1.83u-4.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Paddy PowerCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 40 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	40	−2.90u-7.2% ROI	−1.80u-4.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
PinnacleCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 39 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	39	+5.48u14.1% ROI	−7.08u-18.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeCzech First League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 37 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	37	−35.92u-97.1% ROI	−0.11u-0.3% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 34 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	34	−29.75u-87.5% ROI	−0.18u-0.5% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 34 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	34	−3.13u-9.2% ROI	−1.52u-4.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Paddy PowerCzech First League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 31 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	31	−31.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.49u4.8% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Goals · OverAway team Evidence 29 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	29	−29.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.53u1.8% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKCzech First League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 28 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	28	−7.11u-25.4% ROI	+0.46u1.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 27 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	27	+6.33u23.4% ROI	−8.34u-30.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 26 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	26	+13.80u53.1% ROI	−7.35u-28.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Goals · OverHome team Evidence 26 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	26	−26.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.24u0.9% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKCzech First League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 23 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_total_goals · thestatsapi	23	−0.76u-3.3% ROI	−4.36u-19.0% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Corners · OverMatch total Evidence 20 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	20	+5.60u28.0% ROI	−8.28u-41.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	11	+2.46u22.4% ROI	−4.15u-37.8% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKCzech First League	Corners · OverAway team Evidence 11 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	11	−7.43u-67.5% ROI	+3.87u35.2% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	10	−2.26u-22.6% ROI	+1.51u15.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKCzech First League	Corners · OverMatch total Evidence 10 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	10	+5.94u59.4% ROI	−6.94u-69.4% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKCzech First League	Corners · OverHome team Evidence 9 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	9	+3.49u38.8% ROI	−3.29u-36.6% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
SuperbetCzech First League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 200734 · scraped	8	−8.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.17u2.2% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
SuperbetCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 529 · scraped	8	+5.71u71.4% ROI	−4.04u-50.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
SuperbetCzech First League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 8 reconstructed · 0 recorded 544 · scraped	8	−1.16u-14.5% ROI	−1.93u-24.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Corners · UnderMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded match_corners · thestatsapi	7	+1.98u28.3% ROI	−3.51u-50.1% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 44 · scraped	7	+4.90u70.0% ROI	−2.49u-35.6% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveCzech First League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4345 · scraped	7	+1.60u22.9% ROI	−1.01u-14.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKCzech First League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	7	−1.77u-25.3% ROI	+1.26u18.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
CrocobetCzech First League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 52 · scraped	7	+1.50u21.4% ROI	−1.01u-14.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiCzech First League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159633 · scraped	7	+9.52u136.0% ROI	−4.47u-63.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiCzech First League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159967 · scraped	7	−1.55u-22.1% ROI	−1.00u-14.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
LiderbetCzech First League	Goals · UnderHome team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:504 · scraped	7	+1.60u22.9% ROI	−1.01u-14.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
SuperbetCzech First League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 535 · scraped	7	+9.49u135.6% ROI	−4.47u-63.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
SuperbetCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 7 reconstructed · 0 recorded 200734 · scraped	7	+10.65u152.1% ROI	−3.53u-50.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	6	+1.83u30.4% ROI	−2.36u-39.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetliveCzech First League	Goals · UnderAway team Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 4339 · scraped	6	+5.90u98.3% ROI	−3.51u-58.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
CrocobetCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 8 · scraped	6	+5.90u98.3% ROI	−2.71u-45.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
KambiCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded 1001159926 · scraped	6	+12.00u200.0% ROI	−3.53u-58.8% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
LiderbetCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 6 reconstructed · 0 recorded mt:16:502 · scraped	6	+6.55u109.2% ROI	−2.35u-39.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Bet365Czech First League	Corners · UnderHome team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	5	+0.63u12.5% ROI	−1.27u-25.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
BetMGM UKCzech First League	Corners · UnderAway team Evidence 5 reconstructed · 0 recorded team_corners · thestatsapi	5	−0.02u-0.4% ROI	−1.68u-33.6% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 17:35:45