Predictions
Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.
Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.
1 pick shown with Pinnacle prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.
Board
Matches
WolverhamptonvPortsmouthChampionship1 pick· 0 available
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 22
- Reconstructed matches
- 22
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
Kickoff has passed; this is the recorded pre-match pick.
- Estimated chance
- 53.3%
- Break-even odds
- 1.88
- Expected value at recommendation
- +1.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Break-even odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%.
At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 22 settled picksand +12.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
Model chance53.3%EV+1.3%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.90Closing odds—8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBet365Closing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance57.2%EV+14.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.007 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance57.2%EV+18.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.087 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance57.2%EV+8.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.906 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance57.2%EV+8.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.906 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance57.2%EV+17.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.066 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance57.2%EV+11.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.956 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance57.2%EV+16.0%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.031 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance57.2%EV+15.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.027 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:06: under 2.5 at 1.90 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 20 Oct, 12:11. The original pick remains in the results.
Selected day
Tue, 20 Oct 2026
No settled results yet. 0 active suggestions across 1 listed match.
All dates
Overall results
One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (64 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 9 Oct 2026 – 17 Oct 2026.
How to read this board
A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.
Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.
Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.
Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.
Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.