Predictions
Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.
1 pick shown with Pinnacle prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.
Board
Matches
GuingampvPau FCLigue 20 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick
- Model chance at recommendation
- 50.6%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.98
- Expected value at recommendation
- +1.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 50.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
Model chance50.6%EV+1.3%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.00Closing odds—7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV+3.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.1025 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-8.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-8.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV+2.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.084 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-8.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8513 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-3.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.956 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-0.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.023 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-1.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.0014 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 14 Oct, 22:00: under 2.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 22:05. The original pick remains in the results.
Selected day
Fri, 16 Oct 2026
All dates
Overall results
One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,974 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 18 Oct 2026.
How to read this board
A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.
Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.
Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.
Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.
Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.